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  • #22,181
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:53pm Jan 5, 2013 12:53pm
"China is experiencing unusual chills this winter with its national average temperature hitting the lowest in 28 years, and snow and ice have closed highways, canceled flights, stranded tourists and knocked out power in several provinces." -CNBC-

Will this have any impact on the Aussie?
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,182
  • Edited 1:23pm Jan 5, 2013 12:58pm | Edited 1:23pm
My 2 cents here:

Point B and C are in the negative MACD, so is the point D going to be. The extension line of X-D is questionable. IMO

Quoting IberoForex
Day chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357402293
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,183
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:01pm Jan 5, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting DaddyBear
"China is experiencing unusual chills this winter with its national average temperature hitting the lowest in 28 years, and snow and ice have closed highways, canceled flights, stranded tourists and knocked out power in several provinces." -CNBC-

Will this have any impact on the Aussie?
At least I know this low temperature will have negative impact on the coming China data.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,184
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:05pm Jan 5, 2013 1:05pm
Current XE quote: 1.04780. Looks like it is creeping down on the chart.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,185
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:22pm Jan 5, 2013 1:22pm
In January, 2009, I had a 2 weeks vacation in the Mediterranean sea, so I couldn't trade the Aussie. It had a sharp drop from 0.72xx to 0.62xx during that period. A 1,000 pips downward move. Now, I check the following Januaries and find out except 2012, both 2010 and 2011 had similar movement. It was 800 pips in 2010 and 400 pips in 2011. What is it going to happen this year?
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,186
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:30pm Jan 5, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
In January, 2009, I had a 2 weeks vacation in the Mediterranean sea, so I couldn't trade the Aussie. It had a sharp drop from 0.72xx to 0.62xx during that period. A 1,000 pips downward move. Now, I check the following Januaries and find out except 2012, both 2010 and 2011 had similar movement. It was 800 pips in 2010 and 400 pips in 2011. What is it going to happen this year?
Based on this daily chart analysis, I'd say a 300 to 400 pips downward move this month is in the cards. As to going below the Parity, I'd say it may not happen in January. IMO


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357398446
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,187
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:37pm Jan 5, 2013 1:37pm
There could be some factors caused previous January downward moves. First, they were preset. Second, the catalyst was the low temperature in China. When china slowed down so was the Aussie. I may have to investigate China's weather records further to see if my thinking is correct.

Now the fact behind CNBC's headline "Brr! Low Temperatures in China Wreak Havoc" may send the Aussie to follow this 'Cold Pattern" again this year.

Quoting DaddyBear
Based on this daily chart analysis, I'd say a 300 to 400 pips downward move this month is in the cards. As to going below the Parity, I'd say it may not happen in January. IMO


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1357398446
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,188
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:41pm Jan 5, 2013 1:41pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome, Ill-b-back. I hope you'll be back to read my message.

Your finding is very interesting and meaningful. I'd take it one step further for your reference.
That looks like a drop
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #22,189
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:47pm Jan 5, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting DaddyBear
There could be some factors caused previous January downward moves. First, they were preset. Second, the catalyst was the low temperature in China. When china slowed down so was the Aussie. I may have to investigate China's weather records further to see if my thinking is correct.

Now the fact behind CNBC's headline "Brr! Low Temperatures in China Wreak Havoc" may send the Aussie to follow this 'Cold Pattern" again this year.
Knowing such a historic pattern may not help a scalper or a daytrader. But it will give a clue as to where the Aussie may head to in the near future.

When trading the options or futures, this "Cold Pattern" may in fact help a trader make a windfall if it becomes the fact in the end.

DB once said, "History repeats itself, so dose the Forex market." While we cannot see into the future, in fact, the market paths have repeated the same patterns again and again. However, the same patterns may appear in different formations.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,190
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:52pm Jan 5, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
That looks like a drop
Not sure I understand your message.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,191
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:55pm Jan 5, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Not sure I understand your message.
Just commenting on your analysis
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #22,192
  • Jan 5, 2013 1:56pm Jan 5, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Knowing such a historic pattern may not help a scalper or a daytrader. But it will give a clue as to where the Aussie may head to in the near future.

When trading the options or futures, this "Cold Pattern" may in fact help a trader make a windfall if it becomes the fact in the end.

DB once said, "History repeats itself, so dose the Forex market." While we cannot see into the future, in fact, the market paths have repeated the same patterns again and again. However, the same patterns may appear in different formations.
The fact of "the same patterns may appear in different formations." is the intriguing part of the Forex trading. It causes the confusions and incorrect judgements all the time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,193
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:03pm Jan 5, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
That looks like a drop
Another way.
Your analysis shows the Aussie could fall.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #22,194
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:19pm Jan 5, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Another way.
Your analysis shows the Aussie could fall.
Thanks for clearing up my question. The oblique line of your finding was great.
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,195
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:27pm Jan 5, 2013 3:27pm
Friday's high could be overshooting due to the low liquidity before the market close. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,196
  • Jan 5, 2013 6:04pm Jan 5, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Friday's high could be overshooting due to the low liquidity before the market close. IMO
hi DB..

thought that AU will fall
here is my hourly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au h1 jan06.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #22,197
  • Jan 5, 2013 6:08pm Jan 5, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting IberoForex
Then we have this senary?

Ibero, looks like you have it labeled as a Gartley buy pattern. In that case, your projected XD would be aggressive as tp for Gartley buy pattern would be .618 or .786.


However, if you were to label your A as X then you could be projecting a butterfly sell pattern with a higher completion point. In this case, your XD could be 1.272 or 1.618 or higher of your initial move down. But your d would still be aggressive as it is contingent upon the initial XA move. Notice that the first xa move in your chart is large but D does not exceed X which makes it a Gartley buy and not a butterfly.

Not sure exactly what you are trying to project? Please be willing to clarify if I misinterpret your chart.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #22,198
  • Jan 5, 2013 6:51pm Jan 5, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting Stefanus Ben
hi DB..

thought that AU will fall
here is my hourly chart
welcome Stefanus Ben. Nice chart. This is another way to decipher the PA. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #22,199
  • Jan 5, 2013 6:51pm Jan 5, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting DaddyBear
In January, 2009, I had a 2 weeks vacation in the Mediterranean sea, so I couldn't trade the Aussie. It had a sharp drop from 0.72xx to 0.62xx during that period. A 1,000 pips downward move. Now, I check the following Januaries and find out except 2012, both 2010 and 2011 had similar movement. It was 800 pips in 2010 and 400 pips in 2011. What is it going to happen this year?
Yes......Don't go on vacation again........? No laptop.....? Maybe you could go on vacation again, and take one for the team here, so we can make 800 pips......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_5_2013 month week daily marked.jpg Size: 310 KB
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  • #22,200
  • Edited 9:29pm Jan 5, 2013 7:11pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting forexalien
Yes......Don't go on vacation again........? No laptop.....? Maybe you could go on vacation again, and take one for the team here, so we can make 800 pips......
No more vacation until I make 10,000 pips from the Aussie trading. I will not miss this 'Cold Pattern" this year.
daddybearforex. com
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