Current XE quote: 1.04770. Looks like creeping down again. I know this minuscular move means nothing but I see something behind it.
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DislikedIn January, 2009, I had a 2 weeks vacation in the Mediterranean sea, so I couldn't trade the Aussie. It had a sharp drop from 0.72xx to 0.62xx during that period. A 1,000 pips downward move. Now, I check the following Januaries and find out except 2012, both 2010 and 2011 had similar movement. It was 800 pips in 2010 and 400 pips in 2011. What is it going to happen this year?Ignored
DislikedWeekly ADX on the left is resting and all are moving below the (30), also the 42 period is at (9) The lower these go , the bigger the move will be when it happens. The Daily on the right has all ADX periods resting to a lower position, the 42 period is at (11.7) and dropping. Nothing is organized to go either direction at this time....Ignored
DislikedThere could be some factors caused previous January downward moves. First, they were preset. Second, the catalyst was the low temperature in China. When china slowed down so was the Aussie. I may have to investigate China's weather records further to see if my thinking is correct.
Now the fact behind CNBC's headline "Brr! Low Temperatures in China Wreak Havoc" may send the Aussie to follow this 'Cold Pattern" again this year.Ignored
DislikedYes......Don't go on vacation again........? No laptop.....? Maybe you could go on vacation again, and take one for the team here, so we can make 800 pips......Ignored
DislikedYes......Don't go on vacation again........? No laptop.....? Maybe you could go on vacation again, and take one for the team here, so we can make 800 pips......Ignored
DislikedI shorted aud heavily and wish that I can make 800 pips. That will be good enough for me for next 3 months.
On the weekly chart, I can see aud is ranging between 0.96 and 1.06 or a little higher. If aud drops to 0.96, then it is exactly 800 pips.
I would be happier if there are bounces along the way.
As for the cold pattern, I have no idea. I believe that australians take vacations in January. Is that why aud is slow?? It is like july for us.
In China, the spring festival will be in february this year and most workers will take 2...Ignored
DislikedIMO 0.96 is not going to happen anytime soon until the Fed raises the rate. The cold pattern I mentioned was that China's economy has come to a pause under such a frigid climate in this January.
"The average temperature in northeast China dipped to -15.3 degrees C (4.5 degrees F), the coldest in 43 years, and dropped to a 42-year low of -7.4 degrees C (18.7 degrees F) in northern China.In some areas — [b]northeastern China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and north part of far-western Xinjiang province — the low has hit -40 degrees C (-40 degrees...Ignored
DislikedI believe NE China is a major industrial zone. Under such a super low -40 degrees C, I wonder if any factory is still able to operate normally not to mention how the workers can go to the factories on slippery icy roads.Ignored
Disliked"China Daily reported Friday that about 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in Laizhou Bay in eastern China's Bohai Sea." -CNBC-
I have never heard that 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in NY harbor. This is a huge scale natural disaster. The delay of the unloading of coal and iron ore from Australia cannot be avoided. China is the engine of the Aussie. When the engine stops, so does the Aussie. This is the Cold Pattern I mentioned earlier.Ignored
DislikedI am from China and know SE china is the main industrial zone. It is not that cold in the winter. lol Many places are like floria. Around the chinese new year, Factories will be shut down for holidays. Only retail stores and transpotation facilties will be really busy. So it might has an impact on aud because export to china will be slower.
If it takes too long for aud to drop, I will close the position and look for other opportunities. Buying usdchf may also bring 800 pips this year and the risk is well defined.Ignored
Disliked"China Daily reported Friday that about 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in Laizhou Bay in eastern China's Bohai Sea." -CNBC-
I have never heard that 1,000 ships were stuck in ice in NY harbor. This is a huge scale natural disaster. The delay of the unloading of coal and iron ore from Australia cannot be avoided. China is the engine of the Aussie. When the engine stops, so does the Aussie. This is the Cold Pattern I mentioned earlier. This pattern has occurred in 3 out of 4 previous Januaries.Ignored
DislikedIt is really cold this year in north China. What has happened? lol
Economic slow down so the weather is colder than usual?Ignored
DislikedYou got a link? I'm searching mighty high and low for anything relating to this. Absolutely nothing.
Edit: nvm, even though what I searched for should've brought up some results, an odd word made the difference.Ignored
DislikedThis could be the cause but I don't really get this point at all.
"The national meteorological administration said China is seeing dropping temperatures partly because of south-moving polar cold fronts, caused by melting polar ice from global warming. It said the air is moist and likely to dump heavy snow in China, Europe and North America.On Saturday, the forecast by China's National Meteorological Center said southern China would have more snow and rain in the coming days and that icy rain could hit some regions." -CNBC-Ignored
DislikedI was joking. LOL The cold weather has nothing to do with the economy slow down.
The cold air is coming from Russia. In recent years, there was more snow fall in China. But there was less in Canada. Why?Ignored
DislikedThis is my 2 cents:
Due to China's booming economy, the emission of heat generated by the industries might cause an effect of air convection movement in a huge scale. The cold air from the Arctic would flow to a warmer area like China first instead of going to Canada.Ignored