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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #64,181
  • Dec 23, 2012 7:09am Dec 23, 2012 7:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
So from here forward, the direction of EUR/USD pair will more depend on USD strength/weakness than anything else.
I agree with much of this post. However I think that we are far from a stable euro just yet.

There are many things which could adversely affect the euro. A non-exhaustive list includes: Greece round X, French downgrades, French banking crisis, German election results, Italian election results, large scale social unrest in any of a dozen countries, Spanish meltdown, rise of anti Eu sentiment in any of the "good " countries and an (increasing) anti EU sentiment in the UK.

There are also a number of things which could positively affect the Euro. A (shorter) non-exhaustive list includes yet another summit, increased fiscal integration and signs that the newest recession is reversing and continued flows of yen into Euros.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #64,182
  • Dec 23, 2012 10:07am Dec 23, 2012 10:07am
Quoting AaronWard
I agree with much of this post. However I think that we are far from a stable euro just yet.

There are many things which could adversely affect the euro. A non-exhaustive list includes: Greece round X, French downgrades, French banking crisis, German election results, Italian election results, large scale social unrest in any of a dozen countries, Spanish meltdown, rise of anti Eu sentiment in any of the "good " countries and an (increasing) anti EU sentiment in the UK.

There are also a number of things which could positively affect...
Yes of course, but the things you mention are not yet on the radar screen. The US and it's stupid fiscal cliff issues are.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,183
  • Dec 23, 2012 11:11am Dec 23, 2012 11:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes of course, but the things you mention are not yet on the radar screen. The US and it's stupid fiscal cliff issues are.
PT what's your take on a partial deal being reached on FC before years end, and how did you think markets would react to it, if it happens?
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,184
  • Dec 23, 2012 11:40am Dec 23, 2012 11:40am
Quoting DaEdge
PT what's your take on a partial deal being reached on FC before years end, and how did you think markets would react to it, if it happens?
as far as I can understand this mess


the question to ask is .......would you be holding US equities or would you be holding cash at the moment?


equities, euros, and other commodity currencies offer higher yields to investors and are usually the ones that move up during risk on trades, the correlation between equities since 2000 is .34 however for the past 5 years it has been .64 so to me ......until what PT is talking about happens and the market starts pricing in possible ECB rate cuts and FED rate increases....the yield differential still applies which is what fuels RORO trades.

with the RBA, BOJ, and the poor European economic data coupled with end of year liquidity drop, good US data and the fact that the fiscal cliff negotiations somehow managed to break down. the risk is greater than the reward right at this moment, so investors might be holding cash, reducing risk and all this will be short term euro negative.

i perceived that the market was pricing in a deal as everything was rallying then with negotiations breaking down we saw a correction in all asset classes with higher yields..............so to me that means that the market missed priced the fiscal cliff negotiations and the more it stalls the more we are going to see negative equities and negative Euro.

once agreement is reached i am expecting a rally.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #64,185
  • Dec 23, 2012 12:04pm Dec 23, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting the redlion
as far as I can understand this mess


the question to ask is .......would you be holding US equities or would you be holding cash at the moment?


equities, euros, and other commodity currencies offer higher yields to investors and are usually the ones that move up during risk on trades, the correlation between equities since 2000 is .34 however for the past 5 years it has been .64 so to me ......until what PT is talking about happens and the market starts pricing in possible ECB rate cuts and FED rate increases....the yield differential...
Let me start by saying I'm completely flat on the Eur/usd & will remain that way until FC is out of the way. I do however feel at least some type of deal will be reached before the deadline. IMO since the clock is working against them the US politicians will at the very least want to put together a band aid type deal to avoid going over the cliff. If they do go over the cliff the market reaction will be a very heavy selloff which will cause more problems for everyday americans with 401k & retirement plans & it will cause Americans to slow down spending which inturn slows down the progress of the US recovery. I'm fairly certain both sides are aware of the implications to everyday Americans if a deal is not reached & I would guess they would like to avoid that & buy time to get a solid deal put together. This makes trading the Eur/usd basically gambling because it can go either way so I will continue to stay on the sidelines Im just wondering what everyone else take is.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,186
  • Dec 23, 2012 12:40pm Dec 23, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting the redlion
as far as I can understand this mess


the question to ask is .......would you be holding US equities or would you be holding cash at the moment?

I would rather be holding property. Its cheap relative to equities and bonds, and cash yields nothing at the moment. There is really nowhere to put your money to gain any good yield, bonds are looking overpriced, equities could drop further or rally so the risk is higher and not worth going all in. Property cannot really go any lower compared to the other asset classes.

But if the only alternatives are US equities or cash then I would prefer cash for the next year or so.
  • #64,187
  • Dec 23, 2012 12:57pm Dec 23, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting gustavhunter
I would rather be holding property. Its cheap relative to equities and bonds, and cash yields nothing at the moment. There is really nowhere to put your money to gain any good yield, bonds are looking overpriced, equities could drop further or rally so the risk is higher and not worth going all in. Property cannot really go any lower compared to the other asset classes.

But if the only alternatives are US equities or cash then I would prefer cash for the next year or so.
Only problem with that is banks aren't lending much money at this time. Since the housing bubble collapsed banks have really tightened there belts on mortgage lending. Also most banks would rather trade the money instead of lend out to would be homeowners when rates are at historical lows.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,188
  • Dec 23, 2012 1:41pm Dec 23, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting DaEdge
PT what's your take on a partial deal being reached on FC before years end, and how did you think markets would react to it, if it happens?
A partial deal is probably the very best we could hope for at this point.
As for the market's reaction, I laid it out for you over the weekend. Here's part of the post...

Quoting PipTrapper
IMO there will not be a resolution to the FC which will satisfy the markets enough to continue a rally in global equities. So while negotiations are ongoing, I see equities sideways with a slightly bearish tone, followed by a:

1. Major reversal if things don't go well.
2. Corrective sell-off if/when they agree on something.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,189
  • Dec 23, 2012 1:45pm Dec 23, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting DaEdge
Only problem with that is banks aren't lending much money at this time. Since the housing bubble collapsed banks have really tightened there belts on mortgage lending. Also most banks would rather trade the money instead of lend out to would be homeowners when rates are at historical lows.
Agreed... Unless you've got 50% to put down on a property plus a FICO score of 800 or greater, you're pretty much out of luck.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,190
  • Dec 23, 2012 2:48pm Dec 23, 2012 2:48pm
The next ECB bid rate is on Jan 10th, or about 3 weeks out. This means that expectations concerning this should start to exert a drag on the markets. I have heard nothing about this since Draghi's last bid rate press conference, but I would imagine market expectations are starting to build.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #64,191
  • Dec 23, 2012 3:22pm Dec 23, 2012 3:22pm
Merry Xmas Everyone and Happy New Year !!!
  • #64,192
  • Dec 23, 2012 4:04pm Dec 23, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
Merry Xmas Everyone and Happy New Year !!!
Same to you CM.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,193
  • Dec 23, 2012 4:50pm Dec 23, 2012 4:50pm
24 Dec 12

Daily s-range: 1.3172 - 1.3200

Weekly s-range: 1.3157 - 1.3230


Happy Holidays all! (will update the xls after hols)
  • #64,194
  • Dec 23, 2012 5:00pm Dec 23, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting msood
24 Dec 12

Daily s-range: 1.3172 - 1.3200

Weekly s-range: 1.3157 - 1.3230


Happy Holidays all! (will update the xls after hols)
DailyFX - Support and Resistance
Friday, December 21, 2012 ⌚17:04 PM


EUR/USD
R3: 13385 sTrend: upR2: 13300 mR1: 13283 m
S1: 13190 mVolatility: 43%S2: 13126 sS3: 13040 s
  • #64,195
  • Dec 23, 2012 5:10pm Dec 23, 2012 5:10pm
http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-sil...-economy-gold/

Snippet:

Before discussing the meaning of the end of the cycle in the Mayan Long Count calendar, we strongly recommend looking to “Shift of the Ages.” It is a dramatic, documentary film that reveals the story of the Mayan culture and its sophisticated prophecies of time. Commissioned on behalf of the Maya nation, the Shift of the Ages is the first official discourse to the world from the Mayan Council of Elders, to dispel misconceptions and replace them with the positive story about this incredible period of time for humanity. The movie is freely accessible till December 21st and it appears the free access is extended till January 15th, 2013.
ShiftOfTheAges.com describes that the Mayans were superb mathematicians and astronomers. They created one of the most accurate calendars known to man. Their calendar is cyclical, not linear. There are three Mayan calendars known to Westerners: the sacred calendar, the Haab and the Long Count. The latter, an era-based calendar is the most widely known. It covers inconceivable amounts of time and is theorized to have an end-date of December 21, 2012. The Mayan Long Count calendar began at approximately 3114 BCE, so with its end today, the length of the calendar is about 5125 years.
Another insightful article appeared on the Huffington Post and confirms the previous explanation:

The following thoughts are echoed in Mark Van Stone’s book, 2012: Science and Prophecy of the Ancient Maya. “There is nothing in the Maya or Aztec or ancient Mesoamerican prophecy,” he writes, “to suggest that they prophesied a sudden or major change of any sort in 2012.”
Dr. Jaime Awe, Director of Belize’sInstituteofArchaeologyand part Maya himself says that 2012 “represents the ending of one cosmological cycle, and the beginning of another. It is very much the way most people would look at the end of one year and the beginning of another, but over a very, very long period of time. It is a time for reflection, and for considering future direction.”

Indeed, it is not about a specific day like December 21st, 2012. What truly matters it the transition period and process, from one super cycle into another one. That change is what brings a true challenge.
Key take-away from the Mayan Calendar – Year Zero

What follows are reflections from Darryl R. Schoon who shared his insights with us about the Mayans and the end of their Long Count calendar. Before going into detail, he notes that he is aware of the Mayans prophecies. He admits that the difficulty with it, is that one cannot exactly know the meanings. We need to rely on interpretations which can evoke reactions as they are not always conform to “our norms and known values.”
  • #64,196
  • Dec 23, 2012 5:34pm Dec 23, 2012 5:34pm
High-Beta FX Will be back on top In 2013.
USD will weaken significantly against EM currencies and somewhat against commodity currencies, but will gain against EUR, CHF & JPY

Read all about it >> http://www.efxnews.com/story/16521/h...-back-top-2013
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,197
  • Dec 23, 2012 5:48pm Dec 23, 2012 5:48pm
Boy, I sure hope this thread is better than "EUR/USD."
  • #64,198
  • Dec 23, 2012 6:20pm Dec 23, 2012 6:20pm
Ha ha, saw this on "Trading EURUSD Only" thread posted by thodie , 6 mins of reality (French with subtitles)

Inserted Video
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #64,199
  • Dec 23, 2012 6:45pm Dec 23, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting pip_trader
Boy, I sure hope this thread is better than "EUR/USD."
haha. Careful what you hope for. Welcome Pip_Trader. I'm sure you will find significantly less noise here where we use a combination of sound technicals and fundamental analysis to guide us.

I must warn you I am an uber Euro bear and have been since May 2011. So far I have seen no reason to be bullish in the mid to long term. However, of course in shorter term technicals, there is no reason to not have been bullish since July. I think it's almost over though and this could be it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,200
  • Dec 23, 2012 11:36pm Dec 23, 2012 11:36pm
FF again upgraded the site, looks scattered ,
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