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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #64,141
  • Dec 21, 2012 10:46am Dec 21, 2012 10:46am
Quoting DaEdge
You never know with him a surprise out of his mouth is not out of the question.
I haven't heard yet...did he say anything of worth?
  • #64,142
  • Dec 21, 2012 11:39am Dec 21, 2012 11:39am
Quoting chodd22
I haven't heard yet...did he say anything of worth?
He didn't say anything other than "Thank you" to Obama.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,143
  • Dec 21, 2012 12:23pm Dec 21, 2012 12:23pm
Hey PT
How was your trading week?
Mine was not bad, hence such a long break :-) see charts attached
Anyway I closed all, not leaving any position open.
I don't even know anybody trading on Monday, and Thursday and Friday could be dull as well...
Who knows what may happen... It's better to stay aside...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 24 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1.gif Size: 25 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #64,144
  • Dec 21, 2012 1:10pm Dec 21, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting halkins
Hey PT
How was your trading week?
Mine was not bad, hence such a long break :-) see charts attached
Anyway I closed all, not leaving any position open.
I don't even know anybody trading on Monday, and Thursday and Friday could be dull as well...
Who knows what may happen... It's better to stay aside...

Attachment
Attachment
Yes it's smart to stay aside, but you have to look at this weekly chart and salivate at the Shooting Star candlestick... or PinBar... whatever you want to call it. That's a very bearish signal. So now it's up to the politicians to walk us over the cliff.

E/U Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w1.gif Size: 29 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,145
  • Dec 21, 2012 3:10pm Dec 21, 2012 3:10pm
The latest SSI from Daily-FX suggests that a trend change is around the corner...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyFX - SSI- Major Shift in AUDUSD Positioning Warns of Turn.jpeg Size: 47 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,146
  • Dec 21, 2012 7:22pm Dec 21, 2012 7:22pm
Attached Image
  • #64,147
  • Dec 22, 2012 3:51am Dec 22, 2012 3:51am
Happy upcoming holidays to everyone !
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  • #64,148
  • Dec 22, 2012 12:14pm Dec 22, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes it's smart to stay aside, but you have to look at this weekly chart and salivate at the Shooting Star candlestick... or PinBar... whatever you want to call it. That's a very bearish signal. So now it's up to the politicians to walk us over the cliff.

E/U Weekly:
Attachment
The bar is actually a little trickier than it looks. It can also be viewed as a spinning top which is bullish & signals a continuation pattern to the upside. Look at the close it is above the most recent high & the body is green. This one can go either way. I'm favoring more upside on this one.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,149
  • Dec 22, 2012 12:35pm Dec 22, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting DaEdge
The bar is actually a little trickier than it looks. It can also be viewed as a spinning top which is bullish & signals a continuation pattern to the upside. Look at the close it is above the most recent high & the body is green. This one can go either way. I'm favoring more upside on this one.
It is important to also note the weekly candles for NZD, AUD, and GBP as well though befe jumping to any conclusions for the EUR. The previous three are ALL bearish weekly candles and ALL have reached important zones of resistance on the weekly and monthly charts.

I find it hard to believe that EUR will keep moving higher but NZD, AUD, and GBP will continue to free fall against the USD in the coming weeks...
  • #64,150
  • Dec 22, 2012 12:57pm Dec 22, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
It is important to also note the weekly candles for NZD, AUD, and GBP as well though befe jumping to any conclusions for the EUR. The previous three are ALL bearish weekly candles and ALL have reached important zones of resistance on the weekly and monthly charts.

I find it hard to believe that EUR will keep moving higher but NZD, AUD, and GBP will continue to free fall against the USD in the coming weeks...
Not exactly Aud & Nzd are at/near demand/support levels. The Gbp is a question mark but will generally follow the Eur. Markets should move sideways till fiscal cliff is resolved, then I would expect a pop to the upside. Whether or not that will be this week or next week is anyone's guess, but I'm fairly confident it will be resolved before years end.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,151
  • Dec 22, 2012 1:02pm Dec 22, 2012 1:02pm
Also keep in mind that recent US economic data is signaling signs of recovery this is positive for Eur/Usd. We also have NFP coming in the week of New Years I would suspect those numbers would be positive as well based on holiday season & increase in holiday jobs. Definitely not the easiest time of year to get a good read on the markets.
It works till it doesn't
  • #64,152
  • Dec 22, 2012 1:29pm Dec 22, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting DaEdge
Also keep in mind that recent US economic data is signaling signs of recovery this is positive for Eur/Usd. We also have NFP coming in the week of New Years I would suspect those numbers would be positive as well based on holiday season & increase in holiday jobs. Definitely not the easiest time of year to get a good read on the markets.
Here are some charts for you to view: CLASSIC PASR

NZD/USD: The chart pretty much says it all. Perfect rejection from previous weekly resistance up at .845 zone and now also formed a BEEB on the weekly candle as well.

AUD/USD: Clear test and rejection of weekly TL which has been in effect since July 31, 2011 weekly high. We keep getting lower highs on a weekly basis for AUD/USD. Now we have a clear BEEB (bearish engulfing candle) on the weekly chart. Also, Daily candle has broken and confirmed recent daily uptrend.

GBP/USD: Failed to close above 1.627 on a weekly basis, this line of Resistance has held strong for over a year! Weekly has now formed a doji / pinbar (whatever you want to call it) giving me a bearish signal. Also, 12/19 Daily candle was a Doji at solid resistance area, look what happened two days later: Over 100 pip drop!

EUR/USD: People can come to their own conclusions after observing the other majors as well as the weekly candle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD - Weekly (12-21).jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Weekly.jpg Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - Daily (12-21).jpg Size: 134 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Weekly (12-21).jpg Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Daily (12-21).jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #64,153
  • Dec 22, 2012 1:30pm Dec 22, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting DaEdge
Also keep in mind that recent US economic data is signaling signs of recovery this is positive for Eur/Usd. We also have NFP coming in the week of New Years I would suspect those numbers would be positive as well based on holiday season & increase in holiday jobs. Definitely not the easiest time of year to get a good read on the markets.
Hi DaEdge,

This is not entirely true anymore, well, not since the most recent QE announcement. Positive US economic data is NOT positive for EUR/USD anymore, it is USD bullish.

**One thing to keep in mind: Now that Ben Bernanke has tied the new QE to the "6.5% Unemployment Rate" it means that positive US data is now dollar positive and NOT RISK positive. See, before the latest QE announcement positive US data was "risk" positive - think US equities, AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR, etc...and USD negative due to the fact that the market kept expecting more and more printing from the FED with bad US data figures. Now that they have made it clear that they will not print more money once this certain unemployment figure is reached (6.5%) positive US data will be positive USD. This correlation can be seen from this past Thursday's US Data (GDP, Existing Home Sales, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) which came in MUCH better than expected.
  • #64,154
  • Dec 22, 2012 1:48pm Dec 22, 2012 1:48pm
Hey PT,

I know this has been discussed before but could you clarify to me about how positive US data should be USD bullish from now on? Not sure if how I worded it was very technical or clear...

Somebody posted a good article here but I don't remember which member or which site the article came from!
  • #64,155
  • Dec 22, 2012 1:52pm Dec 22, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting DaEdge
The bar is actually a little trickier than it looks. It can also be viewed as a spinning top which is bullish & signals a continuation pattern to the upside. Look at the close it is above the most recent high & the body is green. This one can go either way. I'm favoring more upside on this one.
If a White (Green) Spinning Top is observed after a long rally or a long white (green) candlestick, this implies weakness among the bulls and it is a warning about a potential change or interruption in trend.

I agree it is not a high reliability signal (what is?), but it cannot be ignored. Best to wait and see how Sunday night closes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #64,156
  • Dec 22, 2012 1:56pm Dec 22, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey PT,

I know this has been discussed before but could you clarify to me about how positive US data should be USD bullish from now on? Not sure if how I worded it was very technical or clear...

Somebody posted a good article here but I don't remember which member or which site the article came from!
T, you just answered your own question in your post above

Add: Interest rate will also be adjusted.
  • #64,157
  • Dec 22, 2012 2:08pm Dec 22, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting Ken A
T, you just answered your own question in your post above

Add: Interest rate will also be adjusted.
Alright good! Wasn't sure if the explanation was detailed enough
  • #64,158
  • Dec 22, 2012 2:08pm Dec 22, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting Ken A
Let's see if that Cloggie the legend is right and keep bashing me on EURUSD thread
Ken,

Where do you currently stand in regards to EUR/USD? Just curious...
  • #64,159
  • Dec 22, 2012 2:09pm Dec 22, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Ken,

Where do you currently stand in regards to EUR/USD? Curious...
Potential bearish depends on those politicians - hence I am here
  • #64,160
  • Dec 22, 2012 2:13pm Dec 22, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting Ken A
Potential bearish depends on those politicians - hence I am here
LOL Nice!

Glad to have you on "our" side!
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