DislikedHey PT,
I know this has been discussed before but could you clarify to me about how positive US data should be USD bullish from now on? Not sure if how I worded it was very technical or clear...
Somebody posted a good article here but I don't remember which member or which site the article came from!Ignored
Where you wrote... "it means that positive US data is now dollar positive and NOT RISK positive.", you have contradicted yourself a bit and maybe added some confusion for the reader. Positive US data is in fact Risk Positive, but the difference is that Positive US employment data or any other data that will contribute to such, is now more USD positive than before because it indicates that a rate increase by the Fed may happen sooner than mid 2015. As such, Mr. Market will start pricing in that rate hike in advance... even if it is still a long way away. Furthermore, QE4ever is pretty much all the Fed is going to do and from here it is much more likely that monetary accommodation will be scaled back rather than increased.
As always, markets front-run everything.
With the US economy looking positive (especially with the 3.1% final GDP print last week), and the EZ economic outlook looking more bleak as EZ governments, businesses and consumers continue to de-leverage, plus the ECB standing ready to cut rates one more time, then the USD stands to gain a lot more foreign capital flow than Euro over the medium term.
At least that is how I see it... Perhaps somebody else wants to chime in on this. Sisse?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it