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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #63,481
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:37pm Dec 14, 2012 4:37pm
...just heard the news...terrible tragedy re the kindy shooting
  • #63,482
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:00pm Dec 14, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting D2tz
I get the gut feeling that the fiscal cliff will be resolved over the weekend
how do you mean?
  • #63,483
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:21pm Dec 14, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting msood
how do you mean?
Where I am from (Canada) the polititians will usually settle urgent matters before closing of parlement during the weekend. Also, this tactic will hinder people from closing positions in the market and reacting to the news.
  • #63,484
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:50pm Dec 14, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting Likerty
Yes, "pizdets" certainly describes the situation well
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,485
  • Dec 15, 2012 4:52am Dec 15, 2012 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
The answer to your question is a complex one as it involves risk premia and potential yield analysis based on political, fiscal, economic and monetary factors. However, just from a simple perspective, all one has to do is compare current and projected economic factors such as unemployment rates, GDP growth (or in some cases, contraction) and general investor, business and consumer confidence metrics with the past economic factors. Once you've looked at the data, then look at the exchange rate comparison between then and now.

Applying that analysis...
I hear you. Then again, although it is indeed an ugly contest, with zero interest rates, QE, QE2, Operation Twist, QE3 to infinity and now QE3 x 2, it is very hard to see the USD as an appealing asset, even compared to Europe and the Euro. Fundamentals and projections (which can also miss the mark by far) have their place in a trader's analysis in my opinion, but they are only a piece of the puzzle and can be thrown out of the windows very quickly. Just look at the CHF. It is where it's at not for economic fundamentals, but simply because of central bank market manipulation.
  • #63,486
  • Dec 15, 2012 7:11am Dec 15, 2012 7:11am
An interesting take on yesterday's move:

http://eurusdtrader.tumblr.com/post/...uidity-squeeze
  • #63,487
  • Dec 15, 2012 7:12am Dec 15, 2012 7:12am
Quoting drzakir123
u mean 1:50 or 50:1 lol if its the first case then ur a gambler sir.otherwise ur a investor regards
youve got it backwards. but then again, youve never actually been on the floor of the NYSE, NY merc, CME or KCBT and interacted with professionals have you? and your idea of investing is burying gold in your backyard? prime example of someone with "vouches" who has NO idea what they're talking about right here
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,488
  • Dec 15, 2012 7:40am Dec 15, 2012 7:40am
Quoting chess king
4H chart ...
Possible channel formation ... I will pay attention to this possibility this week ..
we'll see how the week unfolds...
initial idea was correct .... 4H chart ...
in this business we have to be patient and let the business be profitable
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 4H.pdf   98 KB | 368 downloads
  • #63,489
  • Dec 15, 2012 7:42am Dec 15, 2012 7:42am
Quoting ez0770
An interesting take on yesterday's move:

http://eurusdtrader.tumblr.com/post/...uidity-squeeze
It is a good read. Next week is surely a new game and fresh strategy. I would consider this higher price as a good entry for short.
  • #63,490
  • Dec 15, 2012 7:46am Dec 15, 2012 7:46am
Quoting chess king
initial idea was correct .... 4H chart ...
in this business we have to be patient and let the business be profitable
AMEN.
  • #63,491
  • Dec 15, 2012 8:05am Dec 15, 2012 8:05am
Quoting rekon67
It is a good read. Next week is surely a new game and fresh strategy. I would consider this higher price as a good entry for short.
we are able to see a H & S formation on DAY chart !?
if this happens we will have 3450 ..
just play with speculation
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf DAY.pdf   71 KB | 393 downloads
  • #63,492
  • Dec 15, 2012 8:18am Dec 15, 2012 8:18am
Quoting chess king
we are able to see a H & S formation on DAY chart !?
if this happens we will have 3450 ..
just play with speculation
If you mean an Inverse H/S, then yes, but I could not find a proper head though

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SOE2.png Size: 17 KB


On Weekly I am expecting few pips on my Sale entry.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SOE3.png Size: 51 KB
  • #63,493
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:53am Dec 15, 2012 9:53am
Quoting rekon67
If you mean an Inverse H/S, then yes, but I could not find a proper head though

Attachment

On Weekly I am expecting few pips on my Sale entry.

Attachment
SORRY... yes Inverse H/S.. .. I know we are in an area of strong resistance ... I have no doubt it .... but also do not see signs of weakness Bulls
.. let's see how the next week due...
  • #63,494
  • Dec 15, 2012 8:34pm Dec 15, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't get the point of your post. What are you trying to say? I tried to decode your message, but all I got was a bull commercial.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdA__2tKoIU
Yeah something like that
Inserted Video


Or something like this
Inserted Video
Well fridays move looks bit like it but not over yet will see wanna see confirmation.

Anyway yeah i am still bullish eu she wants to squeeze those highs and she insnt over yet. If you bet wait for 1.35-1.36 and short with size.. around there.(patience). Could be wrong have no crystal ball but thats where i am waiting for first.. Or market will show me different and proof me i am wrong then i will flip before so far trailing has been pain in the ass in eu and gave me profits away on longs because european terrorist keep run it down poor euro and need to buyback etc again verry anoying those terrorist bears..

In terms of man of the year most be Draghi dont you think cooling down those yields with words
Inserted Video
Trading against the central bankers rule nr1 i try to avoid this days.

Anyway

Yen pairs might reverse here so could drag things around allwel usd and yen correlation out of wack a bit in terms risk on risk off..

Thing is also bit to crowded anyway some chart people always like charts http://screencast.com/t/wqf8CpaP2
  • #63,495
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:34pm Dec 15, 2012 9:34pm
Quoting msood
how do you mean?
Boehner offered a deal with tax increase on top 2% eaners.
I told you so Sneaky
  • #63,496
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:38pm Dec 15, 2012 9:38pm
-----
Sent from the CNN App for iPhone
-----

Hey, check this out from CNN:
Washington (CNN) -- House Speaker John Boehner has offered to include higher tax rates on the wealthiest Americans as part of a deficit-reduction deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, a source close to the talks confirmed to CNN on Saturday. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...e/?iphoneemail


Sent from my iPhone
  • #63,497
  • Dec 16, 2012 2:05am Dec 16, 2012 2:05am
"This year sucked". Traders and investors share their views on how they made money in forex in 2012:
http://t.co/ODbZBmVi

Yen short positions hit five-year high
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e1e75f6-3...44feabdc0.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,498
  • Dec 16, 2012 2:10am Dec 16, 2012 2:10am
Quoting D2tz
-----
Sent from the CNN App for iPhone
-----

Hey, check this out from CNN:
Washington (CNN) -- House Speaker John Boehner has offered to include higher tax rates on the wealthiest Americans as part of a deficit-reduction deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, a source close to the talks confirmed to CNN on Saturday. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...e/?iphoneemail


Sent from my iPhone
so how this will affect the market
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #63,499
  • Dec 16, 2012 2:35am Dec 16, 2012 2:35am
Quoting sunilpawar
so how this will affect the market
maybe risk on rally......at which point Eur/Usd will go up.........or perhaps down due to this being priced in already it is very hard to foretell what will happen but I am sure there are supporting arguments either way.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #63,500
  • Dec 16, 2012 2:41am Dec 16, 2012 2:41am
Quoting the redlion
maybe risk on rally......at which point Eur/Usd will go up.........or perhaps down due to this being priced in already it is very hard to foretell what will happen but I am sure there are supporting arguments either way.
Considering that the RoRo phenomenon is currently broken and will probably stay that way, any indication that the US will avert the fiscal cliff may actually be USD positive. However, as you say, there are arguments to be made for both the bears and the bulls.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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