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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #63,361
  • Dec 14, 2012 6:16am Dec 14, 2012 6:16am
Quoting ingmarforex
1 more day bears fighting here see what they got blowtorch them would be best. Close like this then rip 1.35 next months then drop. And pop to 1.40 gonna cause a lot of pain. Like 2010-2011 scenario then around the 1.38 people getting bullish throwing in towels.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bebhV7dX6Zw
I don't get the point of your post. What are you trying to say? I tried to decode your message, but all I got was a bull commercial.

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,362
  • Dec 14, 2012 7:15am Dec 14, 2012 7:15am
The upside movement was protected but for how long?


It’s official: I hate the Swiss
Written by Gerry Davies
December 14, 2012 at 12:06 GMT

Somewhat belatedly (infact it’s a harold has arrow in eye jobbie) I’m finding out that the BIS was an active seller above 1.3100 earlier this morning.
There is indeed a conspiracy in the cantons to thwart my EUR/USD 1.3125 poll glory……it’s now official.

If it weren’t for the persistent Swiss selling of late we could be as high as……………….well at least 1.3150
  • #63,363
  • Dec 14, 2012 7:33am Dec 14, 2012 7:33am
US Core CPI m/m 0.1% vs 0.2% expected vs 0.2% prior.
US Headline CPI m/m -0.3% vs -0.2% expected vs 0.1% prior
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,364
  • Dec 14, 2012 7:46am Dec 14, 2012 7:46am
Quoting Ken A
TI’m finding out that the BIS was an active seller above 1.3100 earlier this morning.
T
The Wikipedia has this to say about BIS:

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international organization of central banks which "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks".[2] As an international institution, it is not accountable to any single national government

Can anybody tell me exactly what this particular scary institution is doing selling and buying currencies? Sissie? PT?

Add: What on earth is a bank for central banks? Can the fed go there and get a loan? Why would they need one?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #63,365
  • Dec 14, 2012 7:53am Dec 14, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Ken A
The upside movement was protected but for how long?


It’s official: I hate the Swiss
Written by Gerry Davies
December 14, 2012 at 12:06 GMT

Somewhat belatedly (infact it’s a harold has arrow in eye jobbie) I’m finding out that the BIS was an active seller above 1.3100 earlier this morning.
There is indeed a conspiracy in the cantons to thwart my EUR/USD 1.3125 poll glory……it’s now official.

If it weren’t for the persistent Swiss selling of late we could be as high as……………….well at least 1.3150
BIS = Bull S##t is selling? Listening this BIS thing all the week long guess they don't have much capital eh? :a
  • #63,366
  • Dec 14, 2012 7:58am Dec 14, 2012 7:58am
Quoting rekon67
BIS = Bull S##t is selling? Listening this BIS thing all the week long guess they don't have much capital eh? :a
They are representing central banks and I don't know why and the reason beyond selling and buying. Could be to protect exchange rate losses from business transactions/investments at national level. Or to protect losses for large funds repatriation or expatriation or among central banks with the FED. Or to maintain rate stability. Who knows.
  • #63,367
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:00am Dec 14, 2012 8:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't get the point of your post. What are you trying to say? I tried to decode your message, but all I got was a bull commercial.
I think he is saying:

 

  1. people on this thread are bears
  2. bears are right now chasing their tails
  3. bears are toast unless they bail on their existing positions
  4. 1.35 and 1.40 are targets
  5. Any bears that don't bail on existing shorts are in for a world of pain
  6. All this is supported by the fact that there was a bull run in 2010-2011 and history repeats itself

Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #63,368
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:05am Dec 14, 2012 8:05am
Quoting AaronWard
The Wikipedia has this to say about BIS:

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Can anybody tell me exactly what this particular scary institution is doing selling and buying currencies? Sissie? PT?

Add: What on earth is a bank for central banks? Can the fed go there and get a loan? Why would they need one?
Well the BIS in addition of venue for CBs to meet and discuss and all the other technicalities and etc, it offers CBs quite a few financial instruments and services from the basic fix accounts to asset management and investment options, etc. In order to do this, the BIS has 2 trading offices in HK and in Basel and those are the ones you hear in the wires selling/buying currencies, etc. So in simple words, those are the trading room for CBs...as you prolly can imaging the BIS manage very powerful and deep pocket clients that can "move" the markets f you know what I mean...

I hope it helps

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #63,369
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:06am Dec 14, 2012 8:06am
Quoting Ken A
They are representing central banks and I don't know why and the reason beyond selling and buying. Could be to protect exchange rate losses from business transactions/investments at national level. Or to protect losses for large funds repatriation or expatriation or among central banks with the FED. Or to maintain rate stability. Who knows.
Thanks Ken.
  • #63,370
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:07am Dec 14, 2012 8:07am
US Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.2 vs 52.6 expected vs 52.8 prior (Revised up from 52.4)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,371
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:10am Dec 14, 2012 8:10am
Quoting AaronWard
I think he is saying:

 

  1. people on this thread are bears
  2. bears are right now chasing their tails
  3. bears are toast unless they bail on their existing positions
  4. 1.35 and 1.40 are targets
  5. Any bears that don't bail on existing shorts are in for a world of pain
  6. All this is supported by the fact that there was a bull run in 2010-2011 and history repeats itself

Okay

The bull run in 2010/2011 was very much supported by high GDP growth projections and a tightening central bank. If history repeats itself, where is the 3%+ growth forecast and the 1%+ increase in the ECB rate?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,372
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:12am Dec 14, 2012 8:12am
Market is against the crowd?

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  • #63,373
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:15am Dec 14, 2012 8:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay

The bull run in 2010/2011 was very much supported by high GDP growth projections and a tightening central bank. If history repeats itself, where is the 3%+ growth forecast and the 1%+ increase in the ECB rate?
exactly what I have been saying to myself. Add in that the delusion that the deficit crisis has been fixed and it is easy to explain away the 2010 bull run. However the fulfillment of Sisses prediction that the fed would open up the floodgates for QE4 has me a bit worried.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #63,374
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:16am Dec 14, 2012 8:16am
Quoting rekon67
Thanks Ken.
And those 'Untouchable', 'Invisible', 'Offshores'. Who knows hence 'Untouchable' but they do exist.
  • #63,375
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:20am Dec 14, 2012 8:20am
Quoting sisse
Well the BIS in addition of venue for CBs to meet and discuss and all the other technicalities and etc, it offers CBs quite a few financial instruments and services from the basic fix accounts to asset management and investment options, etc. In order to do this, the BIS has 2 trading offices in HK and in Basel and those are the ones you hear in the wires selling/buying currencies, etc. So in simple words, those are the trading room for CBs...as you prolly can imaging the BIS manage very powerful and deep pocket clients that can "move" the markets...
Thanks. Why would a CB need asset management and investment options? I thought they were pretty well equipped to do everything needed themselves. Is it for purpose of secrecy?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #63,376
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:26am Dec 14, 2012 8:26am
Quoting AaronWard
exactly what I have been saying to myself. Add in that the delusion that the deficit crisis has been fixed and it is easy to explain away the 2010 bull run. However the fulfillment of Sisses prediction that the fed would open up the floodgates for QE4 has me a bit worried.
All the other CBs are and will be opening the floodgates also, so that limits the Fed's virility in this matter... and since Fed was first to loosen and has pretty much loosened as much as they possibly can, which CB do you think will start to tighten first?

Now as far as the effectiveness of monetary easing is concerned, if the Fed fails to stimulate the US economy, then no other economy is going to do well. However, if they do manage, then the US will lead the recovery. Both scenarios are mid to long term USD bullish.

Furthermore, Europe is not saved... not even close. What we have seen so far is just one more kick of the can. If OMT is activated by the ECB, do you really think that all that junk bond buying would be Euro positive?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,377
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:29am Dec 14, 2012 8:29am
Quoting AaronWard
Thanks. Why would a CB need asset management and investment options? I thought they were pretty well equipped to do everything needed themselves. Is it for purpose of secrecy?
It's a central bank for central banks... like an international central bank rather than a national one, except that they do not make monetary policy... just transactions on behalf of national CBs... like a clearing house of sorts.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,378
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:30am Dec 14, 2012 8:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
All the other CBs are and will be opening the floodgates also, so that limits the Fed's virility in this matter... and since Fed was first to loosen and has pretty much loosened as much as they possibly can, which CB do you think will start to tighten first?

Now as far as the effectiveness of monetary easing is concerned, if the Fed fails to stimulate the US economy, then no other economy is going to do well. However, if they do manage, then the US will lead the recovery. Both scenarios are mid to long term USD bullish.

Furthermore, Europe...
i'm worried about these markets, everything seems to be euro positive.
  • #63,379
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:33am Dec 14, 2012 8:33am
Quoting wingou
i'm worried about these markets, everything seems to be euro positive.
The movements you've seen in the Euro of late have for the most part been due to JPY weakness. When funds started dumping their Yen holdings, they repatriated the funds to their own jurisdiction... why would one ever think that Europe was not heavily invested in Japan?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,380
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:41am Dec 14, 2012 8:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's a central bank for central banks... like an international central bank rather than a national one, except that they do not make monetary policy... just transactions on behalf of national CBs... like a clearing house of sorts.
Looks like they found a pretty good price for their euros too.
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