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  • #63,381
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:43am Dec 14, 2012 8:43am
Canadian Banks Downgraded
By Adam Button || December 14, 2012 at 14:36 GMT

S&P downgraded ScotiaBank, Banque National and several smaller Canadian banks earlier today.
USD/CAD gaining on the downgrades and poor Canadian manufacturing numbers.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,382
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:44am Dec 14, 2012 8:44am
Quoting dchristi
Looks like they found a pretty good price for their euros too.
Yep. I'm not sure what price they got but I managed to jump in at 1.3112
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,383
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:49am Dec 14, 2012 8:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
The movements you've seen in the Euro of late have for the most part been due to JPY weakness. When funds started dumping their Yen holdings, they repatriated the funds to their own jurisdiction... why would one ever think that Europe was not heavily invested in Japan?

I was thinking about the following (Great worrier) So Japan is short its own currency, and has an enormous private-sector hoard of foreign assets. If the Nikkei falls and private-equity funds fall, pension funds in Tokyo will have fewer yen assets, but their liabilities will be the same. So they would have to sell overseas dollar assets and retrade them back to yen. If we have a series of bad events from China to Europe, that will express itself in a very strong yen rally ?!
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #63,384
  • Dec 14, 2012 8:54am Dec 14, 2012 8:54am
Quoting Thijs
I was thinking about the following (Great worrier) So Japan is short its own currency, and has an enormous private-sector hoard of foreign assets. If the Nikkei falls and private-equity funds fall, pension funds in Tokyo will have fewer yen assets, but their liabilities will be the same. So they would have to sell overseas dollar assets and retrade them back to yen. If we have a series of bad events from China to Europe, that will express itself in a very strong yen rally ?!
Yes it might very well manifest into that in due course... but not until after the Japanese election dust settles. Let's see if the LDP party even gets elected first and then we see what the BOJ's next move is.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,385
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:13am Dec 14, 2012 9:13am
Hey PT,

Not sure if my chime in today is somewhat old news. But I think it's time for the USD/CAD bull era
Standard & Poor’s downgrades six Canadian financial institutions
  • #63,386
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:14am Dec 14, 2012 9:14am
Quoting D2tz
Hey PT,

Not sure if my chime in today is somewhat old news. But I think it's time for the USD/CAD bull era
Standard & Poor’s downgrades six Canadian financial institutions
I also read your post about the Fed weakening effect to provide more support in the markets.
  • #63,387
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:38am Dec 14, 2012 9:38am
one would think that a strong U.S. data would lead to stronger dollar....go figure...
  • #63,388
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:40am Dec 14, 2012 9:40am
It doesn't appear Dollar being shorted into Euro.
  • #63,389
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:57am Dec 14, 2012 9:57am
Quoting Ken A
It doesn't appear Dollar being shorted into Euro.
looks pretty dollar driven to me the past dayish
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Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,390
  • Dec 14, 2012 9:59am Dec 14, 2012 9:59am
I am watching USDX and it doesn't fall as fast as Euro rises. But a lot of movement in other currencies, so it could be from other currencies into Euro. Difficult to quantify if not impossible. Money also out of CAD since the S&P downgrade.
  • #63,391
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:02am Dec 14, 2012 10:02am
Quoting Ken A
I am watching USDX and it doesn't fall as fast as Euro rises. But a lot of movement in other currencies, so it could be from other currencies into Euro. Difficult to quantify if not impossible. Money also out of CAD since the S&P downgrade.
It's from the CAD after the bank downgrades.

All charts are H1
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,392
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:07am Dec 14, 2012 10:07am
Quoting lumesh
one would think that a strong U.S. data would lead to stronger dollar....go figure...
Why do you expect USD strength today? Which positive data are you referring to?
  • #63,393
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:19am Dec 14, 2012 10:19am
i took a 3150 short. if the rally continues, ill eat the loss and will back off trading the euro til next year... which really is only 2 weeks away
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,394
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:20am Dec 14, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Ken A
But a lot of movement in other currencies and 10 & 30 year almost didn't move at all. And it's not Risk-On at all now. I don't know this pattern, could be related to recent FED policy or BOJ as Dec 16 is near.
It's hard to say why it is so, but the charts are seeing USD & CAD weakness and Euro strength across the board. I say give it some time and we'll find out that the ECB just tapped into the Fed and BOC swap lines.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,395
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:21am Dec 14, 2012 10:21am
Quoting redteamgo
i took a 3150 short. if the rally continues, ill eat the loss and will back off trading the euro til next year... which really is only 2 weeks away
You obviously mean 1.3050
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,396
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:23am Dec 14, 2012 10:23am
What is this move? USDCAD, EURUSD, NZDUSD rocketing?
  • #63,397
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:24am Dec 14, 2012 10:24am
Here you go folks. That splains it

A Wee-Bit Of Fixing Demand In EUR/USD
By Jamie Coleman || December 14, 2012 at 16:10 GMT

Just your garden variety 25 pip launch at the 16:00 GMT fixing. That’s a rarity these days.Anything which drives up volatility is cool with me.
Strong resistance now at 1.3140 with large barrier interest struck at 1.3150.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,398
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:27am Dec 14, 2012 10:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
You obviously mean 1.3050
no, i mean 3150. futures high is 3154 at the moment
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,399
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:28am Dec 14, 2012 10:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's a central bank for central banks... like an international central bank rather than a national one, except that they do not make monetary policy... just transactions on behalf of national CBs... like a clearing house of sorts.
I get the words, but I am struggling with the reality. Why does a CB need somebody to buy and sell? Central banks can do this without the assistance of a third party. Also, the primary function of a CB is in fact to set monetary policy and to manage the money supply.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #63,400
  • Dec 14, 2012 10:29am Dec 14, 2012 10:29am
Quoting redteamgo
no, i mean 3150. futures high is 3154 at the moment
Yes of course I forgot
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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