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EUR/CHF

  • #10,101
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:02am Dec 12, 2012 9:02am
Quoting Swissie
just enjoy to be short... you got 17 pips from 1.2128... better than nothing, but still not the big deal...
Not time time for scalping now..... Wait till post SNB, 1 day after, or next week, then only scalp.

Short scalpers really have the guts now.
  • #10,102
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:12am Dec 12, 2012 9:12am
A check at a broker's open position ratios now show 62% trading long, 38% shorting at the moment.

Many know the widespread rumor on the peg lifting 1.25, 1.3...., yet many also anticipate the SNB policy will still be 'utmost...'.

H1 chart shows dojis & it could be all the way till 1hr before SNB.

I've got no positions on now, hoping post-SNB will cause a drop for me & every other long player to reload.
  • #10,103
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:44pm Dec 12, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting alaneth
A check at a broker's open position ratios now show 62% trading long, 38% shorting at the moment.

Many know the widespread rumor on the peg lifting 1.25, 1.3...., yet many also anticipate the SNB policy will still be 'utmost...'.

H1 chart shows dojis & it could be all the way till 1hr before SNB.

I've got no positions on now, hoping post-SNB will cause a drop for me & every other long player to reload.
1.3, no
1.2-21 means no change, or 1.4
  • #10,104
  • Dec 13, 2012 1:24am Dec 13, 2012 1:24am
Took out my sell orders... waiting for the decision. Long-orders @ 1.2032 remain in place. Actual position: far long
  • #10,105
  • Dec 13, 2012 2:43am Dec 13, 2012 2:43am
And she tanks...
  • #10,106
  • Dec 13, 2012 2:57am Dec 13, 2012 2:57am
1,2030 could be a good price to close some short positions. I hope not to hear shit roumours about raising floors, interest rates next months!!
  • #10,107
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:46am Dec 13, 2012 3:46am
Shorters are the winners.
Unfortunately I don't have the guts to short into SNB meeting.
Salute to qatar!
  • #10,108
  • Dec 13, 2012 3:58am Dec 13, 2012 3:58am
Quoting qatar
1,2030 could be a good price to close some short positions. I hope not to hear shit roumours about raising floors, interest rates next months!!

And a good price to buy...
  • #10,109
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:40am Dec 13, 2012 4:40am
From my point of view nothing has changed since yesterday. The EUR/CHF is still a buy for me and the up spike about 30 min. ago shows just how dangerous it is to short the pair, because as the lower the thing tracks, the more repatriation of EUR we're going to see.

I've just reentered long at 2090 and am willing to add to the position if the pair falls to 2030, which from here is just a 60 pip drawdown if it happens.

Why I will not short this pair:

1). You can't afford to have a tight stop or it's going to get spiked out sooner or later.
2). If one word is said in the next 3 months about an 1.2XXX floor, your short is immediately working against your wide stop.
3). You are looking at a max of 100 pips profit if you were lucky enough to have shorted at 2130, where as even from 1.2090 the R/R is acceptable, as this thing can only stay above the peg.

I'm not crazy enough to think that the peg is going to be removed,
  • #10,110
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:19am Dec 13, 2012 5:19am
Quoting alaneth
Shorters are the winners.
Unfortunately I don't have the guts to short into SNB meeting.
Salute to qatar!
Thanks but that's not enough. I want €uroproblems now! I need the PEG to be removed, and I need more problems. Anyway, I don't believe in movements above 1,2130-1,22

But I would need more tensions to keep shorts at this level. I will wait until February, expecting ECB to introduce negative deposit rates
  • #10,111
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:19am Dec 13, 2012 6:19am
Quoting qatar
Thanks but that's not enough. I want €uroproblems now! I need the PEG to be removed, and I need more problems. Anyway, I don't believe in movements above 1,2130-1,22

But I would need more tensions to keep shorts at this level. I will wait until February, expecting ECB to introduce negative deposit rates

Hi qatar,

Salute for the shorts you kept ahead of the SNB Meeting! You have balls of steel! I doubt that ECB will introduce negative deposit rates. They may lower the rates and I'm quite sure that it's going to happen, but we wont see negative rates from them.

Cheers!
  • #10,112
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:10am Dec 14, 2012 3:10am
It seems the floor is raised by the market after SNB meetings by 40 pips...Lets hope new support level at 1.2080 !!
  • #10,113
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:52am Dec 14, 2012 4:52am
Got to be honest i hope it will go a bit lower before i reload.

Have a nice day
  • #10,114
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:46am Dec 18, 2012 6:46am
Quoting lonis7
It seems the floor is raised by the market after SNB meetings by 40 pips...Lets hope new support level at 1.2080 !!
1.2077 again...
Let's see what happens now... Up or down...?
  • #10,115
  • Dec 19, 2012 8:55am Dec 19, 2012 8:55am
I think right now the market is forcing EURCHF down, or SNB is taking the opportunity to slowly selling their EURs.

Reason is EURUSD is rising but EURCHF not trailing it like what is used to be before SNB 13th Dec. (ok, the USD index shows USD dropping, but EUR generally is strong).
The high 1.2080 average is due to a strong EUR now. Greece gets a debt upgrade, Germany business confidence up. All the good signs from EU.

But again how long can the EUR remain strong?
  • #10,116
  • Dec 19, 2012 9:47am Dec 19, 2012 9:47am
Quoting alaneth
I think right now the market is forcing EURCHF down, or SNB is taking the opportunity to slowly selling their EURs.

Reason is EURUSD is rising but EURCHF not trailing it like what is used to be before SNB 13th Dec. (ok, the USD index shows USD dropping, but EUR generally is strong).
The high 1.2080 average is due to a strong EUR now. Greece gets a debt upgrade, Germany business confidence up. All the good signs from EU.

But again how long can the EUR remain strong?

In my view, it all makes sense: As long as the fiscal cliff issue is not resolved in the US, everyone will continue to sell USD for safer currencies including EUR and CHF. So both EUR and CHF rise against the USD, but EUR/CHF will not see any dramatic moves until there are important news from Eurozone.
  • #10,117
  • Dec 21, 2012 5:01am Dec 21, 2012 5:01am
just noticed my broker started to charge negative swap for long positions on this pair.
How come?
no actual interest have changed though.
  • #10,118
  • Dec 25, 2012 6:14am Dec 25, 2012 6:14am
It's time for a break. Put aside SNB, put aside EZ problems, put aside thinking of -ve interest rates etc... 2012 is going to end.

Wishing everyone a Joyous Christmas and a Blessed New Year. May 2013 be a better year for us traders
  • #10,119
  • Jan 2, 2013 2:30pm Jan 2, 2013 2:30pm
I wish all EUR/CHF traders a happy new year.

Good rally today in the pair without any rumors of a floor hike, news or anything else. Maybe the EUR will start to move up on its own accord against the CHF.

Good trades to all.
  • #10,120
  • Jan 7, 2013 6:20am Jan 7, 2013 6:20am
Yawn, back from holidays & a very very boring week....

SNB sight deposits dropped CHF3bil, yet no movement upwards for EURCHF. Don't know how the SNB foreign reserves look like lately. There is certainly some glass ceiling resistance around 1.21.

It's boring trading 15pips per day & trendless. Too high to scalp long. Don't know what to do...

Any idea what to do now folks?
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