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EUR/CHF

  • #10,061
  • Edited 3:41pm Dec 9, 2012 11:19am | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting AaronWard
I know china does something like this to combat inflation. However, they don't make the timing or magnitude of the moves public before they happen. What other countries have done something like this?
Eastern Europe for example in Hungary in the 90es to boost trade balance

wiki: "For example, in the 1990s, Mexico had fixed its peso with the U.S. dollar. However, due to the significant inflation in Mexico, as compared to the U.S., it was evident that the peso would need to be severely devalued. Because a rapid devaluation would create instability, Mexico put into place a crawling peg exchange rate adjustment system, and the peso was slowly devalued toward a more appropriate exchange rate."
  • #10,062
  • Dec 10, 2012 1:26pm Dec 10, 2012 1:26pm
SNB: Barclay's Capital strategists say that Thursday's SNB decision will attract
attention because of the recent run up in euro-Swiss in response to news that
select Swiss investment banks are charging negative interest rates on cash
deposits. "As we have argued before, this rally is unlikely to be sustained, and
given our expectation of no change in policy from the SNB, EUR/CHF should
continue to grind toward the 1.20 floor over the next few weeks," they say.
Going forward however, they see the Swiss economy facing "significant downside
risks from the euro area slowdown and a stronger CHF" and Barclays looks for the
cross to move towards Chf1.22 in the next 3 months.
  • #10,063
  • Dec 10, 2012 3:11pm Dec 10, 2012 3:11pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...EA841020121210

Swiss deposit on sight are lower, so pressure on CHF is smaller . We will see, what happened ...prediction for 1.22 is nothing , because just before 5-6 days we saw on 1.2168 .
Pair will be stuck in this range 1.2 - 1.22 for medium term.
  • #10,064
  • Dec 10, 2012 8:20pm Dec 10, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting pipxster
SNB: Barclay's Capital strategists say that Thursday's SNB decision will attract
attention because of the recent run up in euro-Swiss in response to news that
select Swiss investment banks are charging negative interest rates on cash
deposits. "As we have argued before, this rally is unlikely to be sustained, and
given our expectation of no change in policy from the SNB, EUR/CHF should
continue to grind toward the 1.20 floor over the next few weeks," they say.
Going forward however, they see the Swiss economy facing "significant downside
risks...
And the Q which might be in place to be asked is if 1.22 will help the Swiss economy boost. Revising the SNB mandate anybody can see that the main focus is on price stability and the rate 1.2 does no good for that, the SNB is exposed to the fact that USDCHF has developed from about 5.2 to 0.93 and it is too far for their economy which is export-oriented and their industry has worked hard to response the overvaluation of CHF while the SNB has recently taken some steps and everybody in industry, public, political parties and even the SNB believes it hasn't been enough, then Barclay's comments that the rate will advance for 40 pips after touching 1.2160 to avert substantial loss to their economy, I ask myself," what sort of strategists they are, they had better go scalping."
  • #10,065
  • Dec 10, 2012 11:56pm Dec 10, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting holmes
..... even the SNB believes it hasn't been enough, then Barclay's comments that the rate will advance for 40 pips after touching 1.2160 to avert substantial loss to their economy, I ask myself," what sort of strategists they are, they had better go scalping."
Yes, you are right, good for scalping, but only long scalping... I think post-SNB tomorrow, the pair will trade in the tight range of around 1.20 - 1.22. No reason for it to go beyond 1.22, even if cap ctrls & negative rates come into force. Many would rather pay a bank to safeguard their money. The decrease in sight deposits is only temporary.

I believe that for EZ to recover, EZ must first fall and then get up again stronger. Artificial bailouts, EFSF, ESM will not help much.
  • #10,066
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:04am Dec 11, 2012 12:04am
Quoting alaneth
Yes, you are right, good for scalping, but only long scalping... I think post-SNB tomorrow, the pair will trade in the tight range of around 1.20 - 1.22. No reason for it to go beyond 1.22, even if cap ctrls & negative rates come into force. Many would rather pay a bank to safeguard their money. The decrease in sight deposits is only temporary.

I believe that for EZ to recover, EZ must first fall and then get up again stronger. Artificial bailouts, EFSF, ESM will not help much.
SNB meeting is Thursday, right? Not tomorrow...
  • #10,067
  • Edited 2:33am Dec 11, 2012 2:13am | Edited 2:33am
All in at 2090 SL at break even. +17 as I write this

Edit: Half taken at +24 SL up to 2095 soft target 2130
  • #10,068
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:45am Dec 11, 2012 2:45am
Quoting rcrist
SNB meeting is Thursday, right? Not tomorrow...
Oh yeah, sorry - I thought tomorrow is Thursday....

...by the way talking about scalping long, I'm was ready to start from 1.2050, but look what happened now! If only UBS can delay the announcement till later I might have gone long near 1.2050.... wasted opportunity
  • #10,069
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:52am Dec 11, 2012 2:52am
options still low, anyone thinking surprise will happen can go long call or even straddle...
  • #10,070
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:22am Dec 11, 2012 3:22am
Quoting zoran22
options still low, anyone thinking surprise will happen can go long call or even straddle...
if u want to go long on it better to trade with USDCHF/CHFJPY because even if EUR/CHF gets back to its range they will be profitable.
  • #10,071
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:56am Dec 11, 2012 3:56am
You see, downwards force on EURCHF is ever persistent, but subtle. The spikes up are due to unexpected news, but later it always goes down again. Sight deposits slight decrease last week may be due to CSG -ve rate, today we have UBS. But I see the pair going down again. When all these cap ctrls efforts or even SNB's effort on cap ctrls loses steam, the pair will still & eventually go down.
CHF is always viewed as a safe haven still.
I believe after Thu's SNB, whatever may happen, eventually EURCHF will settle down around 1.2010-1.2050 range....
  • #10,072
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:10am Dec 11, 2012 5:10am
Tons of rumors circulating this morning about SNB/CHF.
  • #10,073
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:17am Dec 11, 2012 5:17am
Quoting alaneth
You see, downwards force on EURCHF is ever persistent, but subtle. The spikes up are due to unexpected news, but later it always goes down again. Sight deposits slight decrease last week may be due to CSG -ve rate, today we have UBS. But I see the pair going down again. When all these cap ctrls efforts or even SNB's effort on cap ctrls loses steam, the pair will still & eventually go down.
CHF is always viewed as a safe haven still.
I believe after Thu's SNB, whatever may happen, eventually EURCHF will settle down around 1.2010-1.2050 range....
I agree with you. There could be spikes, but I expect it will not jump higher than 1,22 anymore, at least in a sustained path. Until the floor is removed, then uahahoo. Swiss franc demand > swiss franc supply

Now my new main SL will be at 1,218x
  • #10,074
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:21am Dec 11, 2012 5:21am
0945 GMT [Dow Jones] ING revises EUR/CHF forecast to 1.25 on a multi-month horizon and ahead of the SNB's policy meeting Thursday. Data showed that the SNB didn't need to intervene in currency markets in November to defend its 1.20 floor in the cross. "A spot slightly above 1.2050 owes to the risk of a new policy initiative, with last week's move by Credit Suisse to charge negative rates on certain deposits fresh in the mind," ING says. EUR/CHF now at 1.2114. ([email protected])
  • #10,075
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:24am Dec 11, 2012 5:24am
ZURICH--UBS AG (UBS) Tuesday said it will charge fees to bank clients holding Swiss franc cash clearing accounts from Dec. 21, and has urged customers to keep franc balances as low as possible.

Switzerland's largest bank by market value said that due to the "prevailing market conditions" it has modified its policy of charging only selected clients since August 2011, and will now include all its third-party bank customers.

"The charge applied will be communicated individually to clients within the next few days, and we encourage customers to keep their Swiss franc balances as low as possible," UBS said in a statement on the Swift interbank payment system.

Earlier this month cross-town rival Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) said it would begin charging interest to other banks for holding their franc deposits.

The moves come as banks struggle to cope with surging demand for the franc, which has climbed in value as global investors seek safety from the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone. State Street Corp. (STT) in October levied charges on its Swiss franc and Danish krone deposit accounts.

The franc dipped briefly to its weakest level against the euro in five days after the Swiss bank it would charge fees for deposits in francs. The euro traded as high as CHF1.2108 before settling back towards the CHF1.2089 area.

Market participants said the sharp reaction was partly due to poor trading conditions at the start of European trading hours.

"Liquidity is not great and the market is struggling to handle this morning's higher than average turnover," said Citigroup in a note.
  • #10,076
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:10am Dec 11, 2012 7:10am
Quoting Cuso
All in at 2090 SL at break even. +17 as I write this

Edit: Half taken at +24 SL up to 2095 soft target 2130
Closed another half at 2115 SL back to BE on the rest and am letting it run.
  • #10,077
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:08am Dec 11, 2012 11:08am
Down again because 1,2130 is very strong.

My SL: 1.21325 and 1.2185. TP: 1.2010, 1.02 and 0.80
  • #10,078
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:34pm Dec 11, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting qatar
Down again because 1,2130 is very strong.

My SL: 1.21325 and 1.2185. TP: 1.2010, 1.02 and 0.80
How do u dare to go short on this pair?
  • #10,079
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:58pm Dec 11, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting holmes
How do u dare to go short on this pair?
Why not? I it always goes down. I would be crazy to be long. Always rumours, negative interest rates, overvalued, SNB to raise the floor... but never depreciates "further". And when the floor will be removed, CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF CHF!

I never loose with this pair (only swaps). Now you can see how 1,2130 cannot be reached and down again
  • #10,080
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:24pm Dec 11, 2012 3:24pm
I am trying not to risk more increasing my short position now. It's very hard not to short more when I have so clear that 1,22 won't be reached. And I am confident that 1,2130 neither. A SL in 1,2130 looks so atractive!
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