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EUR/CHF

  • #10,041
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:59am Dec 6, 2012 8:59am
Hello again everybody..Ive been buying an the way down again in anticipation of 1.2180 breaking next week. Patients will do you well on this pair...and dont short it. Ive been buying based on pa..so i have bought again at 1.2087, 1.2120, and im currently waiting to see if 1.2085 breaks downward before buying again. I will be buying into next week as well. I will close the position based on the PA I see next week. Right now it is going down due to eur/usd. Watch the correlation of usd/chf and eur/chf, eur/usd for clues as to why you see moves.

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  • #10,042
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:41pm Dec 6, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting qatar
I don't understand why it should depreciate further (almost 1% in 24h) for an unconfirmed 1% (at most) of negative interest yield in "some" banks
Do u really think it is the rumor of capital control moving that?
  • #10,043
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:58pm Dec 6, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting svtnick
Hello again everybody..Ive been buying an the way down again in anticipation of 1.2180 breaking next week. Patients will do you well on this pair...and dont short it. Ive been buying based on pa..so i have bought again at 1.2087, 1.2120, and im currently waiting to see if 1.2085 breaks downward before buying again. I will be buying into next week as well. I will close the position based on the PA I see next week. Right now it is going down due to eur/usd. Watch the correlation of usd/chf and eur/chf, eur/usd for clues as to why you see moves....
Please be careful.
  • #10,044
  • Dec 6, 2012 9:14pm Dec 6, 2012 9:14pm
Quoting pipxster
SL?
None, I can take a 100 pip drawdown at this size. Plan on doubling up at 2050 if we get there. 2085 is big support in the 4H chart even after EUR/USD selloff yesterday.
  • #10,045
  • Dec 7, 2012 6:32am Dec 7, 2012 6:32am
FXDD has been charging negative roll over for long EURCHF positions held overnight, allthough their own website indicates that long EURCHF has 0,00 rollover 真真真真真 ????????????
  • #10,046
  • Dec 7, 2012 7:01am Dec 7, 2012 7:01am
Quoting hornsant
FXDD has been charging negative roll over for long EURCHF positions held overnight, allthough their own website indicates that long EURCHF has 0,00 rollover 真真真真真 ????????????
Many brokers are doing the same thing, and they are making a lot of money doing so - having the swaps all for themselves. Never mind, the swaps are a small thing compared to the returns of going long on this.
  • #10,047
  • Dec 7, 2012 2:47pm Dec 7, 2012 2:47pm
Jordan in November:

The SNB’s aim with the minimum exchange rate is not to fine-tune the economy, but to provide the market with some guidance during a phase of great uncertainty. The objective is to prevent severe damage to the Swiss economy from a very substantial and possibly long-lasting overvaluation of the Swiss franc. Accordingly, the SNB has set the minimum exchange rate at a level where the value of the Swiss franc remains high.

With short-term nominal interest rates close to zero, further interest rate reductions were soon impossible. This meant that conventional monetary policy, in other words, managing the economy via short-term interest rates, was no longer an option.

the question is" why should we think there will be capital control next week?", Revising his speech several times, I am somehow certain that it won't be an option specially when he says:

I am happy to observe today that the relationship between the SNB and the Swiss Bankers Association has remained good and reliable over the years. The Swiss Bankers Association has been a key dialogue partner for the Governing Board on all matters relating to the financial centre, and continues to be so.
But as I have said in my older posts recalling the credibility of the SNB is being observed certainly and although many economists confirm leveling the peg won't be an option according to his speech:

The measures that can still be used are often described as unconventional
and also:

It is perhaps useful to recall that, between the early 1980s and 2009, the SNB’s interventions on the foreign exchange market were extremely rare.

My main concept is " certainly, the rumor or the Euro appreciation in last week haven't been the reason for this pair movement and since price stability is one of first mandates of the SNB and other central banks and while the CPI@2percent has been confirmed as unreachable by this highly valued CHF, a new defined peg could be expected, therefore my advice for those being short on this pair is to close their trades and go long on it and wait for a probable surprise next week."
  • #10,048
  • Dec 8, 2012 2:24am Dec 8, 2012 2:24am
Morning all it's getting to silly time again just thought I would check in and see what the feel on this pair is.
Is it worth having a low risk long before the SNB meeting .

Holmes I see your still hoping for a floor raise!
  • #10,049
  • Dec 8, 2012 3:40am Dec 8, 2012 3:40am
Quoting brinks
Morning all it's getting to silly time again just thought I would check in and see what the feel on this pair is.
Is it worth having a low risk long before the SNB meeting .
I don't see how it can be a low risk trade. SNB might surprise the markets and EURCHF could go down. The only longs I would consider low-risk are long-term ones with rather distant SL and an accent on swap gains.
  • #10,050
  • Dec 8, 2012 3:59am Dec 8, 2012 3:59am
Quoting enivid
I don't see how it can be a low risk trade. SNB might surprise the markets and EURCHF could go down. The only longs I would consider low-risk are long-term ones with rather distant SL and an accent on swap gains.
I think it is low risk you have a 80 pip stop for 100s potential gain.

Good Risk reward in my opinion.

And as you say if they keep the floor at 1.20 and dont bring in capital controls it turns into a long term hold.

If they remove the floor by surprise you flip to a sell on 1.20 break
  • #10,051
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:21am Dec 8, 2012 8:21am
It's been a month now since I opened an account with 'plus500'. U can open an account with them and they will give u 25 euros bonus. What did I do straight away... I brought EUR/CHF at 1.21080 (605,40Sfr) and now it's at 1.20780 (603,90Sfr).

I heard a rumour that this broker is a scammer, why?, because u never make a profit out of them!

So with all this nonsense, with my real account, I'm betting CHF is a riser in a week or so.

Didn't hit the 1.22 mark so it's a BEAR!!!
  • #10,052
  • Dec 8, 2012 11:02am Dec 8, 2012 11:02am
If SNB wants to introduce any surprises, they have to do it on Monday or latest Tuesday, then discuss it on Thursday's press conference.

So if nothing happens Mon & Tue, it means they will remain steadfast on their 'utmost determination' stance. So chances are the pair will experience a steep drop immediately after SNB's announcement. But if Jordan or Danthine mentions or hints on 'possible cap controls', then this drop may not happen or the pair may rise.

So I'll place my bets Wednesday.
  • #10,053
  • Dec 8, 2012 5:00pm Dec 8, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting alaneth
If SNB wants to introduce any surprises, they have to do it on Monday or latest Tuesday, then discuss it on Thursday's press conference.

So if nothing happens Mon & Tue, it means they will remain steadfast on their 'utmost determination' stance. So chances are the pair will experience a steep drop immediately after SNB's announcement. But if Jordan or Danthine mentions or hints on 'possible cap controls', then this drop may not happen or the pair may rise.

So I'll place my bets Wednesday.
There should be also other tools in the box as deflation is an unaddressed issue since more than a year.
What if they turn the floor into a crawling floor/peg? Lets say 0,1 pct each week, and reconsider each meeting
What do you guys think?
  • #10,054
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:05am Dec 9, 2012 1:05am
Quoting pipxster
There should be also other tools in the box as deflation is an unaddressed issue since more than a year.
What if they turn the floor into a crawling floor/peg? Lets say 0,1 pct each week, and reconsider each meeting
What do you guys think?
I don't think they will do anything.
Things still not good in the euro.
The Swiss still in deflation yes but not that bad,The SNB will hold firm and wait.
  • #10,055
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:09am Dec 9, 2012 1:09am
Quoting pipxster
There should be also other tools in the box as deflation is an unaddressed issue since more than a year.
What if they turn the floor into a crawling floor/peg? Lets say 0,1 pct each week, and reconsider each meeting
What do you guys think?
Crawling floor peg? You mean like CNY?

Then I'll be out of this trade for good!

But the USDHKD scenario is a better one allowing some 1000pips trading range, unchanged for the last 20+ years!
  • #10,056
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:17am Dec 9, 2012 1:17am
Quoting alaneth
Crawling floor peg? You mean like CNY?

Then I'll be out of this trade for good!

But the USDHKD scenario is a better one allowing some 1000pips trading range, unchanged for the last 20+ years!

1000 pip range with 1.20 being the lower end of the range.
  • #10,057
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:30am Dec 9, 2012 1:30am
Quoting brinks
1000 pip range with 1.20 being the lower end of the range.
1000 pip is too big for EURCHF. After 15mths, it never raises more than 500pips above 1.2.
A 100 pip range will be better.
We can easily scalp bothways then .
But then, it is very unlikely to happen.
  • #10,058
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:39am Dec 9, 2012 1:39am
Quoting alaneth
1000 pip is too big for EURCHF. After 15mths, it never raises more than 500pips above 1.2.
A 100 pip range will be better.
We can easily scalp bothways then .
But then, it is very unlikely to happen.


Yes I agree nothing is going to happen I think
  • #10,059
  • Dec 9, 2012 7:00am Dec 9, 2012 7:00am
Quoting alaneth
Crawling floor peg? You mean like CNY?

Then I'll be out of this trade for good!

But the USDHKD scenario is a better one allowing some 1000pips trading range, unchanged for the last 20+ years!
A crawling peg is like they raise the floor with 2 pips every day unless defletion goes off...its been used in other countries too.
  • #10,060
  • Dec 9, 2012 7:47am Dec 9, 2012 7:47am
Quoting pipxster
A crawling peg is like they raise the floor with 2 pips every day unless defletion goes off...its been used in other countries too.
I know china does something like this to combat inflation. However, they don't make the timing or magnitude of the moves public before they happen. What other countries have done something like this?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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