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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #331,641
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:16pm Dec 4, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting _BBKing_
lol nice pic!

you know... just few days ago someone asked me: " do you trade with the trend or do you trade counter trend to pick reversals?"
better i don't post my answer to this question...
IMO when starting out we tend to trade with the trend, trying to chase the market. That chase will happen only after the trend has been established and price has already gone way too far in one direction. We enter the directional trade only to find that market reversed on us.

Soon enough we realize that there is no point in chasing the market and hence the tendency gets to counter trend trade trying to pick tops/bottoms.

I think the problem is that when trading with the trend, when market does push far enough, we never bank our profits and if counter trend trading, we enter the trade only to find that market keeps pushing further in the trend direction.

The key to profit making imo is to choose your timeframe, estimate max drawdown per trade, then be conservative when entering the trade and liberal getting out of it without emotions getting in the way.

I hardly follow any of those because of the latter.
  • #331,642
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:42pm Dec 4, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting _BBKing_
ok now i understand better what you mean. previously i thought "if ema 50>200 then is long" else "short"
but also true when price far from emas + counter divergence + emas crossed direction = attract price like iron to magnet!!
this is true also in faster TF but better have it for large TF and wait confirmation in price in faster TF...
nah its more of a counter trend.... the reason why i chose this trading method is because.... Profit targets are clear.... being the EMAs if the price drifted too far from it...
Entry however could be tricky, and i often enter as SOON as a divergence occurs.... but only IF the circumstances are correct....

when Price>EMA55>EMA200, + Confirmed Bearish Divergence signal on candle close = Short on Next candle open.
when Price<EMA55<EMA200, + Confirmed Bullish Divergence signal on candle close = Long on Next Candle Open....

Although it is counter trend, it SHOULD work because divergence signals a correction (usually).... to get market back to equilibriums being the EMAs therefore Profit targets are clear....
And Entry is also pin point since the indicator rings a bell when a signal comes up, but you really need to follow the strategy rules very well...

ONLY thing i realize that might flaw this strategy... is SWAPS.... this strategy would probably work best if used on a swapless broker... and i know one... Tadawulfx is a swapless broker, sadly i cant test demos long enough with them....
because if you trade with this strategy and fundamental news are driving markets and against the trades, it could take longer time for the trades to take profit....
and i havent quite figured out a right way for Stop Loss for this strategy.... and holding onto a position for long term on a swapfree broker can flaw the strategy if you hold trades that are Negative Swap :/

but nonetheless a good strategy.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,643
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:13pm Dec 4, 2012 4:13pm
Counter trend trading, Signals at 10PM GMT

GBPJPY Short 131.87
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2204.gif

EURJPY Short 107.22
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2205.gif

USDCHF Long 0.9262
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2205.gif

CHFJPY Short 88.35
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2205.gif

With all these signals.... take your pick... it just seemed inevitable to see some sort of Correction in most of the YEN crosses.... with NZDJPY, CADJPY being the first to show signal, now the Main Crosses of EURJPY and GBPJPY, heck even the Safehaven competition CHFJPY is saying a correction...
I am betting we see some fresh YEN demand.... expecting a drop in most of the yen pairs....

for this... i've closed one of my losing NZDJPY short trade to free up some liquidity to short the EURJPY.... i think the EURO is more likely to collapse first against the yen....

I swear to god, Abe better keep his mouth shut!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,644
  • Edited 5:10pm Dec 4, 2012 4:53pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Counter trend trading, Signals at 10PM GMT

GBPJPY Short 131.87
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2204.gif

EURJPY Short 107.22
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2205.gif

USDCHF Long 0.9262
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2205.gif

CHFJPY Short 88.35
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/52561775/Fo...22012.2205.gif

With all these signals.... take your pick... it just...
personally, i would like to see swissy to retest 9360 area.. hopefully that will bring down fiber, but i'm not taking it..

currently just waiting..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #331,645
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:09pm Dec 4, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting A-speculator
personally, i would like to see swissy to retest 9360 area.. hopefully that will bring down fiber, but i'm not taking it..

currently just waiting..
well i took the USDCHF long.... aiming to tp at 9350 sooo who knows??
atleast i dare to take a hit on one of my early (fail) shorts on the NZDJPY for 80 pips loss just so i could free up some margin to enter the signals i had today....
besides i was holding 2 shorts on NZDJPY sooo why not close out one of them to clear up some space for my new trades
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,646
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:10pm Dec 4, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting A-speculator
personally, i would like to see swissy to retest 9360 area.. hopefully that will bring down fiber, but i'm not taking it..

currently just waiting..
readjustment, it's 9340 area..
  • #331,647
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:11pm Dec 4, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting fxtyrant
well i took the USDCHF long.... aiming to tp at 9350 sooo who knows??
atleast i dare to take a hit on one of my early (fail) shorts on the NZDJPY for 80 pips loss just so i could free up some margin to enter the signals i had today....
loses is normal mate, don't feel sorry about that.. but since you're saying that you want to clear up some margin, do you actually used all your margin?
  • #331,648
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:18pm Dec 4, 2012 5:18pm
i'm not interested in fiber & cable today, it might be the retracement to 1.3 and 6040 respectively, i'm not going to catch the wave...

what i'm interested is to see is ucad trading below 9900 for today (if possible)
  • #331,649
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:23pm Dec 4, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting A-speculator
loses is normal mate, don't feel sorry about that.. but since you're saying that you want to clear up some margin, do you actually used all your margin?
nah... just didnt feel comfy holding that NZDJPY short any longer... it was 80+ pips in loss and swap is starting to take a bite making it even harder for THAT particular trade to take profit.... so might as well close it to free up the margin
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,650
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:29pm Dec 4, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting A-speculator
i'm not interested in fiber & cable today, it might be the retracement to 1.3 and 6040 respectively, i'm not going to catch the wave...

what i'm interested is to see is ucad trading below 9900 for today (if possible)
well my strategy is still in a trial and error stage.... only showing some sneak peaks until i proof it works.... when it does, ill start considering sharing infor and trade ideas
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,651
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:31pm Dec 4, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting fxtyrant
well my strategy is still in a trial and error stage.... only showing some sneak peaks until i proof it works.... when it does, ill start considering sharing infor and trade ideas
ok doke mate, your ideas are welcome here.. no harm in sharing..
  • #331,652
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:34pm Dec 4, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting A-speculator
ok doke mate, your ideas are welcome here.. no harm in sharing..
i built the strategy up from scratch over quite a period of study, but if you see the charts i got, its compelling to counter trade with this system of mine
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,653
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:36pm Dec 4, 2012 5:36pm
Quoting fxtyrant
i built the strategy up from scratch over quite a period of study, but if you see the charts i got, its compelling to counter trade with this system of mine
it ok trading counter trend, always put extra precaution on such trade since it can bite up your azz quite fast, what i mean is it can get back to its main trend prematurely, i think you know what i mean, right?
  • #331,654
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:46pm Dec 4, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting A-speculator
it ok trading counter trend, always put extra precaution on such trade since it can bite up your azz quite fast, what i mean is it can get back to its main trend prematurely, i think you know what i mean, right?
yea i do, but on a daily chart for it to get back on the main trend prematurely takes a move like 300 or so pip when a divergence occurs....
so... and as i have mentioned... there were divergence signals that i wouldnt take as they are fake signals... i think i showed it to you before.... where there was a bearish divergence signal when EMA55 is below EMA200.... that is not right... EMA55 being below EMA200 is time to look for BULLISH divergence....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,655
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:51pm Dec 4, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting fxtyrant
yea i do, but on a daily chart for it to get back on the main trend prematurely takes a move like 300 or so pip when a divergence occurs....
so... and as i have mentioned... there were divergence signals that i wouldnt take as they are fake signals... i think i showed it to you before.... where there was a bearish divergence signal when EMA55 is below EMA200.... that is not right... EMA55 being below EMA200 is time to look for BULLISH divergence....
perhaps your system is sound, but always remember that emotions are also in play in the market and emotions doesn't have any trend/pattern.

with that said, i would strongly suggest to you (if i may), concentrate on the PA itself and indicators will just be your second opinion and not tools in your decision making process.
  • #331,656
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:02pm Dec 4, 2012 6:02pm
Quoting A-speculator
perhaps your system is sound, but always remember that emotions are also in play in the market and emotions doesn't have any trend/pattern.

with that said, i would strongly suggest to you (if i may), concentrate on the PA itself and indicators will just be your second opinion and not tools in your decision making process.
yea buddy... i trade PA before i am developing this strategy so yes i kno well.... and talk about PA... i wonder if GBPUSD is goign to create that Lower low and the candle body that gets back into the downtrend to trigger more downmove down to EMA200 again 1.5880 :/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,657
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:06pm Dec 4, 2012 6:06pm
Quoting fxtyrant
yea buddy... i trade PA before i am developing this strategy so yes i kno well.... and talk about PA... i wonder if GBPUSD is goign to create that Lower low and the candle body that gets back into the downtrend to trigger more downmove down to EMA200 again 1.5880 :/
in the mid term view, i don't think we will go that low unless breakout downwards from current ascending channel in daily.. i'm expecting a pullback to about 6040 before continue upwards..
  • #331,658
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:08pm Dec 4, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting fxtyrant
yea buddy... i trade PA before i am developing this strategy so yes i kno well.... and talk about PA... i wonder if GBPUSD is goign to create that Lower low and the candle body that gets back into the downtrend to trigger more downmove down to EMA200 again 1.5880 :/
hwy hoq do you think about this one!
I know the nose of the pin is not good enough but it is at confluence of Fib and Support level!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ww.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #331,659
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:17pm Dec 4, 2012 6:17pm
Quoting surajkincity
hwy hoq do you think about this one!
I know the nose of the pin is not good enough but it is at confluence of Fib and Support level!
i think that Pin bar is going to drive us back into that downward channel you have....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #331,660
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:23pm Dec 4, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting fxtyrant
i think that Pin bar is going to drive us back into that downward channel you have....
i was thinking the same but i think i should not trade this and wait for another perfect setup!
ryt?
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