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EUR/CHF

  • #10,021
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:31am Dec 4, 2012 8:31am
Quoting zoran22
who is your broker?
Swiss Bank
  • #10,022
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:36am Dec 4, 2012 9:36am
Quoting Cuso
If you're waiting for a drop to reload, why on earth did you close your shorts for a loss in the first place? Are you so leveraged up that you can't take a 50 pip drawdown, or are you just trading by the seat of your pants?
This pair is getting very uncertain. I'm not over-leveraged. My shorts are small & some short closed by SL and I closed the other manually as I fear just before SNB meeting, things can work out both ways. It can drop drastically or rise depending on rumors and also SNB may make sudden decisions days before their meeting so Jordan 'will have something to speak during the press conference'. Just like the 1.2 peg on Sept 6th, 2011. If SNB were to act, they act a few days before the meeting, not during the meeting. Just in case something happens or mr.market goes berserk in the wrong direction due to rumors (upwards), I'll be dead. My closing my shorts may not be wise, but at least I can sleep comfortably instead of placing trailing stop or higher SL.

So now I have no strategy at the moment for this pair. I'm lost - more like gambling now.
Anyone can advise what to do now?
  • #10,023
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:41am Dec 4, 2012 9:41am
Quoting alaneth
This pair is getting very uncertain. I'm not over-leveraged. My shorts are small & some short closed by SL and I closed the other manually as I fear just before SNB meeting, things can work out both ways. It can drop drastically or rise depending on rumors and also SNB may make sudden decisions days before their meeting so Jordan 'will have something to speak during the press conference'. Just like the 1.2 peg on Sept 6th, 2011. If SNB were to act, they act a few days before the meeting, not during the meeting. Just in case something happens or...
I'll buy at 1.208 / 1.206 and 1.204

would not go short, even if were "high" now
  • #10,024
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:49am Dec 4, 2012 9:49am
Quoting Swissie
I'll buy at 1.208 / 1.206 and 1.204

would not go short, even if were "high" now
Thanks - will have to change my strategy.

15min ago I read this post & shorted small amount at 1.2125, hoping to scalp 10pips or so - now it dropped to 1.2113 . This is my last short. No more shorts.
Have to discipline myself from now though - this ain't Vegas. I will go only long from now on. I think Fibs and technicals may not work now pending SNB next week.

I'll go long around 1.206 and 1.204 then. Thanks.
  • #10,025
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:55am Dec 4, 2012 9:55am
Just look in the hourly...it's been ranging between 2115 and 2135 since this morning, so I've been scalping it.

With the trade from yesterday I've pulled +115 off the pair today, and I hope this goes on forever...
  • #10,026
  • Dec 4, 2012 11:05am Dec 4, 2012 11:05am
I don't understand why it should depreciate further (almost 1% in 24h) for an unconfirmed 1% (at most) of negative interest yield in "some" banks
  • #10,027
  • Edited 5:51pm Dec 4, 2012 5:28pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting qatar
I don't understand why it should depreciate further (almost 1% in 24h) for an unconfirmed 1% (at most) of negative interest yield in "some" banks
I know technicals are not the most important in this pair but still we've got the 2 most bullish d1 candle in this year in a row. And I guess that around 1,22 theres not a CB with utmost determination but a lot of stops to be hunted. I think theres no sense to swim against the tide trying to pick the top...as theres no sign of weakness atm.
Probably theres a lot of still open retail shorts on this obvious falling trend from 1,212 till 1,201 but as I wrote some weeks ago,if I were SNB I would not let people to reload below 1,203 or even more at 1,201.

Expect some more short squeeze maybe even over 1,22 from HFs supported by SNB "no comment" till next week meeting with the capital controls story. Every analyst expected no further measures so maybe now they do something of course maybe not. Besides before the floor introduction they gave a hint 2-3 times...
Before next week meeting after last 3 days PA I would consider long or stand aside - after the meeting lets see PA and who knows 1,203 or 1,26
Just my 2 cents anyway
  • #10,028
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:30am Dec 5, 2012 3:30am
0912 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/CHF fear premium still heading higher as demand for protection against further CHF weakness shows no sign of abating. The implied volatility curve has flattened significantly from over three volatility points this time last month to around two volatility points Wednesday as front-end costs soar. One-week costs, which were trading close to one volatility point last week, are trading close to four volatility points. One-month implied volatility is trading at 3%, the highest since the beginning of October. 12-month has regained the 5% level. Front-dated sentiment gauges reflect the increase in demand for EUR/CHF calls as they trade with a heavy skew in favor of EUR/CHF calls. EUR/CHF trades at 1.2154.([email protected])
  • #10,029
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:31am Dec 5, 2012 3:31am
0915 GMT [Dow Jones] Barclays says not much resistance in EUR/CHF until 1.2190 which is the September spike high, and then the year high at 1.22, which should be difficult to overcome. The bank favors fading a move to the latter for a drop back to 1.2120 and possibly 1.21 as the cross establishes a range into next week. EUR/CHF now at a fresh 11-week high of 1.2156. ([email protected])
  • #10,030
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:37am Dec 5, 2012 5:37am
While Qatar hopes in peg break, I closed all my lots long from 1.203.
Huge Gain.
Now other pairs, bye bye
  • #10,031
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:37am Dec 5, 2012 9:37am
Newton's law on gravity - Whatever goes up must come down .
Hoping to reload soon... come down to 1.2050.
  • #10,032
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:44am Dec 5, 2012 9:44am
1159 GMT [Dow Jones] BNP Paribas looking for EUR/CHF at 1.25, which is a view it has held since September when it went long from 1.2060. The bank tracks euro zone peripheral spreads against EUR/CHF and says the relationship was strong between the two before the SNB put the 1.20 in place, and it now calls for EUR/CHF to move further away from its 1.20 floor. EUR/CHF now at 1.2129. ([email protected])
  • #10,033
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:46am Dec 5, 2012 9:46am
Quoting alaneth
Newton's law on gravity - Whatever goes up must come down .
Hoping to reload soon... come down to 1.2050.
Waiting for the daily close...btw maybe SNB is offloading in the meantime lets see on monday.
  • #10,034
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:43am Dec 5, 2012 10:43am
New long entry for me at 1.2107.
  • #10,035
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:40am Dec 6, 2012 12:40am
Quoting Cuso
New long entry for me at 1.2107.
SL?
  • #10,036
  • Dec 6, 2012 4:14am Dec 6, 2012 4:14am
I just grabbed 7 pips from 1.21175 to 1.21245
  • #10,037
  • Dec 6, 2012 4:29am Dec 6, 2012 4:29am
Quoting pipxster
Waiting for the daily close...btw maybe SNB is offloading in the meantime lets see on monday.

not before SNB meeting
  • #10,038
  • Dec 6, 2012 4:31am Dec 6, 2012 4:31am
Quoting rcrist
not before SNB meeting

I meant: It won't fell too much before SNB meeting
  • #10,039
  • Dec 6, 2012 7:05am Dec 6, 2012 7:05am
looks like even the hard liner inflationistas can not talk up this deflation -0,4% YoY

0913 GMT [Dow Jones] In the case of EUR/GBP, the bank says it continues to target a rise to 0.85 on the back of a resumption of capital outflows from domestic U.K. investors and the cross's close-to-record-high correlation with foreign equities, which could be in for some Christmas cheer. On EUR/CHF, meanwhile, it says the 1.20-1.22 range should not be taken for granted, seeing a possible move to at least 1.25. EUR/CHF is at 1.2108, EUR/GBP is at 0.8113. ([email protected])
  • #10,040
  • Dec 6, 2012 8:20am Dec 6, 2012 8:20am
Interesting PA atm... EU down ECHF not (yet?)
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