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EUR/CHF

  • #10,001
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:41am Dec 3, 2012 9:41am
Quoting alaneth
Arghh! I'm a little short.... Just a few hours ago.

But I'm going to open a little more short positions now.

What do you guys think? After market digestion, will it continue to drop?
or more banks will follow suit these few days?
If Draghi lowers the rates, than snb is forced to introduce negative rates, which will in my calculations have a deeper impact than the lowering of ECB. Therefore i stay long... BTW the pair rose already before the CS-News. Even if only from 1.2031 - 1.2064.

From a technical point of view i'd stay long anyway atm... but technicals... ppfff... http://www.forex-tribe.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=44888
  • #10,002
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:45am Dec 3, 2012 9:45am
Quoting alaneth
Arghh! I'm a little short.... Just a few hours ago.

But I'm going to open a little more short positions now.

What do you guys think? After market digestion, will it continue to drop?
or more banks will follow suit these few days?
Dont forget, next week's SNB meeting. Before this meeting there are a lot of rumours about lifting the peg to 1,22 1,25 etc. rumours about capital controll, and negativ rates. So be carefull with short in these days.
  • #10,003
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:49am Dec 3, 2012 9:49am
Quoting Simon73
Dont forget, next week's SNB meeting. Before this meeting there are a lot of rumours about lifting the peg to 1,22 1,25 etc. rumours about capital controll, and negativ rates. So be carefull with short in these days.

Yeah.. hopefully I'll be able to reload before the meeting...
  • #10,004
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:11am Dec 3, 2012 10:11am
Quoting rcrist
Yeah.. hopefully I'll be able to reload before the meeting...
I hope to reload too, but now we cannot forecast what may happen. There are so many unexpected volatility and rumors causing unforeseen movements.

Again recall that the last 4 SNB meetings since Dec 2011 show absolutely different trends/patterns :
Dec 2011 - Sudden huge drop from 1.22s due to "Utmost determination...."
Mar 2012 - Gradual climb to 1.214 then gradual drop to 1.205 due to "Utmost determination...."
Jun 2012 - Nothing much till the last minutes prior to announcement - few pips up then down rapidly due to "Utmost determination...."
Sep 2012 - Already at the 1.208+ levels - not much response, but still climb upwards 1.217 thereafter despite "Utmost determination.... again"
Dec 2012 - Guess the trend?
  • #10,005
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:28am Dec 4, 2012 3:28am
Wow!!! 1.2127...... Anybody still trading this pair? Any reason for this move up? Can't find any news or rumor...
  • #10,006
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:34am Dec 4, 2012 3:34am
this is breaking shorts policy

if there were any serious rumors, or statements it would go up much faster

options prices still low...
  • #10,007
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:36am Dec 4, 2012 3:36am
Quoting max888
Wow!!! 1.2127...... Anybody still trading this pair? Any reason for this move up? Can't find any news or rumor...
Negative interest on Swiss deposit...(rumored)
  • #10,008
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:36am Dec 4, 2012 3:36am
Quoting max888
Wow!!! 1.2127...... Anybody still trading this pair? Any reason for this move up? Can't find any news or rumor...
No roumor; it's fact: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ooglenews_wsj#


still long... negative interest seems to be the gamechanger, as well as drop in sight deposits and the technical sunrise... short covering could be a reason too

sell some of my position up to 1.2180...
  • #10,009
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:32am Dec 4, 2012 4:32am
I still keep 1 lot long since the 4th of April and planning to keep it for now. 13th is the maybe the key date, but lets see...
  • #10,010
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:40am Dec 4, 2012 4:40am
I lost some amount on shorts. Luckily got SL around 1.2120....

Now I've closed all my positions both long & shorts. Waiting for a drop again to reload. SNB's meeting may be a blessing as if "utmost determination" is still uttered with no decision to raise the peg and no introduction of -ve rates, then I think eurchf will fall once again.

OK, other banks may follow CSG to introduce -ve rates, but I think if the EZ turmoil starts again, the safe haven factor will be more attractive than -ve rates. Right now eurchf is trailling eurusd - an all time high.

I'll just sit back, relax & wait patiently...
  • #10,011
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:52am Dec 4, 2012 4:52am
More news:

The major Swiss Bank says it will set negative rates on an individual basis. Earlier scuttlebutt had the bank initially charging 1% and then minimum of 0.75% on balances over 100 million francs. The attempted clarification has seen EUR/CHF fall back to 1.2120 from session high 1.2145.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=398628
  • #10,012
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:56am Dec 4, 2012 4:56am
Short covering. No facts. Only 1 or 2 banks manipulating the market. Keep shorts
  • #10,013
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:05am Dec 4, 2012 5:05am
Quoting qatar
Short covering. No facts. Only 1 or 2 banks manipulating the market. Keep shorts
No facts? Negative interests is no fact?

I'd like to read more from you. Why should anyone cover its shorts? who is manipulating the market? Swiss banks? The two who introduce -ve rates?

Take care on keeping shorts...

EUR spreads are tightening, thats what moves EURCHF and will move further if interest spreads keep going in the same direction.
  • #10,014
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:22am Dec 4, 2012 5:22am
Quoting alaneth
I lost some amount on shorts. Luckily got SL around 1.2120....

Now I've closed all my positions both long & shorts. Waiting for a drop again to reload. SNB's meeting may be a blessing as if "utmost determination" is still uttered with no decision to raise the peg and no introduction of -ve rates, then I think eurchf will fall once again.

OK, other banks may follow CSG to introduce -ve rates, but I think if the EZ turmoil starts again, the safe haven factor will be more attractive than -ve rates. Right now eurchf is trailling...
If you're waiting for a drop to reload, why on earth did you close your shorts for a loss in the first place? Are you so leveraged up that you can't take a 50 pip drawdown, or are you just trading by the seat of your pants?
  • #10,015
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:50am Dec 4, 2012 5:50am
Quoting Swissie
No facts? Negative interests is no fact?
CS has not specified how much customers will be levied and it won't be applied to everybody equally.

Quote
I'd like to read more from you. Why should anyone cover its shorts? who is manipulating the market? Swiss banks? The two who introduce -ve rates?
Yes, because I have not seen negative rates being charged in the accounts yet

Quote
Take care on keeping shorts...
SL at 1,22010 and waiting patiently until the floor is removed

Quote
EUR spreads are tightening, thats what moves EURCHF and will move further if interest spreads keep going in the same direction.
EZ spreads are still unsustainable
  • #10,016
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:20am Dec 4, 2012 6:20am
Quoting qatar
CS has not specified how much customers will be levied and it won't be applied to everybody equally.

Yes, because I have not seen negative rates being charged in the accounts yet

SL at 1,22010 and waiting patiently until the floor is removed

EZ spreads are still unsustainable

totally right.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ates-on-francs

not yet... but as of 10th December 2012

You have your stoploss at 1.2201?

and yes, EZ-spreads are still unsustainable, but they will rather narrow over the time (month, years) which will lift EURCHF up.
  • #10,017
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:31am Dec 4, 2012 6:31am
BTW my swappoints to the 21st of December rose from 0.8pips yesterday to 1.8 pips today.... which could mean, that the market is calculating with lower CHF-interests, which would be below zero. Don't think that EUR-interests rose!

Or maybe i just got cheated by my bank by 1 pip. ;-)
  • #10,018
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:05am Dec 4, 2012 7:05am
Quoting Swissie
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ates-on-francs

not yet... but as of 10th December 2012
We'll see

Quote
You have your stoploss at 1.2201?
Yes, between 1,2201-1,2215. But I believe we are at the highs of this recent move

Quote
and yes, EZ-spreads are still unsustainable, but they will rather narrow over the time (month, years) which will lift EURCHF up.
Spreads could also widen again!
  • #10,019
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:21am Dec 4, 2012 7:21am
Quoting max888
Wow!!! 1.2127...... Anybody still trading this pair? Any reason for this move up? Can't find any news or rumor...
It is possible the eur.chf will be one of the biggest gainer in the next couple of weeks/months. The euro crises soften and - that's the biggest argument - 430 billion (in chf) foreign currencies are in the SNB books (96 was at the end of 2009). It means 200-300 billion euro hot equity are in Switzerland. If this money tries to move out then the door will be very tight.
http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...r_SNB.book.pdf
If you check this statement, October was the first month in the last two years when foreign currency balance falls and the most important is that in the last three month it was not increased significantly. This means for me that we reached the inflexion point, no new hot money goes into Switzerland.
I assume in the first couple of hundred pips the SNB will not sell (intervenue on the other side) foreign currencies from its balance sheets(realize loss). I guess the first intervenue will be at around 1.3 level.
Let see...and please note it is a speculation, it is possible I am wrong
  • #10,020
  • Dec 4, 2012 8:21am Dec 4, 2012 8:21am
who is your broker?

Quoting Swissie
BTW my swappoints to the 21st of December rose from 0.8pips yesterday to 1.8 pips today.... which could mean, that the market is calculating with lower CHF-interests, which would be below zero. Don't think that EUR-interests rose!

Or maybe i just got cheated by my bank by 1 pip. ;-)
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