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Building an equity millipede

  • #5,441
  • Nov 17, 2012 1:15am Nov 17, 2012 1:15am
Quoting zusch
Could you explain what you mean by this? I don't quite understand.

I think weekly chart is bullish now simply because its green and it retraced over nearly all of last weeks range. I consider a retrace past 61.8% of previous candle a possible reversal sign like Graeme mentions in post 965.

However, monthly hindsight of down is still valid until the month closes so next week has a good chance to continue the trend down. There is a long bottom wick on the current...
My apologies zusch if I was not clear. By Long Term Trend Analysis, I mean hindsight analysis on weekly/monthly. I believe you are referring to anticipation in regards to making entries based on how the current weekly candle formation in relation to previous week's candle. Your understanding is spot on.... it is ok to enter a probe in long direction with anticipation that the current weekly candle could become a game changer (trend reversal based on tip of wick interpretation at FIB levels etc). I would also do the same but I would NOT change my weekly hindsight based on the current open candle formation. I analyze all my chosen pairs on weekends to form a weekly/monthly hindsight based on numerous factors mentioned by Graeme. Once a Hindsight is formed, I stick to my hindsight until the end of current week/month.

The concept of hindsight should be similar to a trendline break. Would you consider a change in trend if price breaks out of weekly trendline by 50 or 100 pips? Weekly candle should close above/below the trendline to qualify for a trend reversal (assuming one knows how to correctly draw trendlines!)

I did try a couple of short probes on Thursday as the tip of wick was approaching 33% and 50% ending one in loss and one at BE. I forced myself to stay away from this pair on Friday due to two failed probes. This is where discipline comes into play. I have to listen to what market is conveying and limit my losses (milk the heck out when market conditions are favorable)... which is key for this trading method.

Looking ahead into my weekend's hindsight analysis for next week, I would wait for this pair to show clear direction next week as the upper and lower wick is almost the same size (buyers starring as sellers analogy used by Graeme with buyers winning first and then sellers winning). If Monday closes above the open of last week's candle with compelling momentum, I might consider going long. If Monday is a down day, then I would consider it as a confirmation for a weekly downtrend and continue stacking short positions.

Looking at my portfolio, I am overexposed on AUD, so I might just stay flat for now and focus on JPY weakness. Remainder of the year will be a very tough trading environment with random news from politicians causing significant volatility. In such unpredictable trading environment, it is better to trade near breakout/bounce of highs/lows of D1/WK/MN candles. Any level within the body will be a hit or miss.

Hope this clarifies.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,442
  • Nov 20, 2012 4:45am Nov 20, 2012 4:45am
Very good, thanks.
  • #5,443
  • Nov 23, 2012 3:10am Nov 23, 2012 3:10am
Quoting SABTrader
Here's a custom indicator for MT4 to show the proximity of price to the 200 ema.
When price is within 40 pips a box appears on the lhs of the chart.
The height of the box is 40 pips to give some perspective to the chart volatility.
If price is below the ema, the top of the box is at the same level as the current ema level and it's color is red.
If price is above the ema, the bottom of the box is at the same level as the ema and it's color is green.

There is a user input for repaint
when true it updates with each tick.
when false it only updates...
HI Steve,

Many tks for this very useful indi.

Could you pls be so kind and look at the code as I got following msg during compilation inMT4:
errors(0), warnings(1)
Function "Get_sPeriod" is not referenced and will be removed from exp-file

Have a nice day
Mike
  • #5,444
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:50pm Nov 23, 2012 6:50pm
Hello Graeme,

I am following the weekly eur/usd. I have put two trendlines on my chart and you can see that over a long period it has been moving down with many upturns also. Right now the weekly candle is bullish but if the movement on my chart holds then next week it should turn back to a bearish candle, of course nothing is guaranteed but like you said the direction it moves in usually stays the same.

Currently I am in a losing sell trade, I am trying to follow your method for entries and use the weekly as my guide,
Thank you
  • #5,445
  • Nov 25, 2012 3:10am Nov 25, 2012 3:10am
Hi tokyotrader,

Nobody knows what the market will do next, and there is a tendency for people having an open short position to see more arguments of why the market would go lower than higher.

Hopefully the risk you are taking on is part of a plan established before-hand and not only based on hope that the next week should turn into a bearish candle.

Regards,

Cam
  • #5,446
  • Edited 2:09pm Nov 25, 2012 1:19pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi tokyotrader,

Nobody knows what the market will do next, and there is a tendency for people having an open short position to see more arguments of why the market would go lower than higher.

Hopefully the risk you are taking on is part of a plan established before-hand and not only based on hope that the next week should turn into a bearish candle.

Regards,

Cam
Welcome back Cam. Glad to see you come out of hibernation and share your wisdom :-

Just to add a bit more.... this is a downside to most trading platforms that allow trading from charts. Most of them display open orders on charts which affects your ability to keep an open mind on change in direction. Our mind strives to be right from actions taken in the past hence they look at their open positions and continue to find reasons to justify the chosen direction instead of going with the flow.

Here's what I do to 'reset' my mindset on direction. During weekend hindsight analysis when preparing for next week, I try to clear my mind from how price reacted to my chart studies in the past. I hide them using the attached script to reset objectivity/subjectivity/bias I have formed watching the pair. I also run this script just before opening positions most times (with a hotkey) to keep my emotions in check and not get disappointed if my anticipation does not work out in my favor. It also helps as a reminder that market is out of our control no matter how much we analyze. Seeing a completely naked chart frequently helps me stay neutral at all times with an open mind to just follow the price.

Hope this helps.

P.S. I found this script here on FF so many thanks to the author who wrote it. Unfortunately, it does NOT hide open positions on the chart. If anyone here can find the MQ4 version and modify this script to completely hide open positions form chart, that would be awesome!!!!

Edit: I also ran into this article http://thesensibleguidetoforex.com/2...subscribe-blog. Just a glimpse for tokyotrader why you should be concerned keeping a losing position open during the weekend. I closed out some positions on Friday which were under 30-40pips close to my BE. SL/BE orders are just useless during weekend gaps!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TradeNaked (show or hide objects on charts by JoshDance).ex4   2 KB | 619 downloads
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,447
  • Nov 25, 2012 4:31pm Nov 25, 2012 4:31pm
Thank you Vee, I haven't left, just that there is not much I can add to the on-going discussions, or to what Graeme taught us.

EURUSD Weekly chart attached... for me it's up, there was a correction, positively ended with that bullish run last week (closed above the open of the latest bearish week). My long positions are thriving and my shorts are getting closed at be, meaning that for the time being we are going up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 68 KB
  • #5,448
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:48am Nov 27, 2012 10:48am
Quoting cameron1st
Thank you Vee, I haven't left, just that there is not much I can add to the on-going discussions, or to what Graeme taught us.

EURUSD Weekly chart attached... for me it's up, there was a correction, positively ended with that bullish run last week (closed above the open of the latest bearish week). My long positions are thriving and my shorts are getting closed at be, meaning that for the time being we are going up.
Fantastic position building effort Cam. It is great to share such experiences. Curious if you could share further stats/details. For me, I would really like to know how much is your floating profit on E/U as % of account balance. I have experienced 40%-50% floating equity growth after which it gets super tough. I have overcome the hurdle of small realized losses though... in fact, I just love to see them in my account history and feel quite proud :-

For E/U, it is long for sure but a bit concern about the strong resistance at 1.30 along with coinciding downward trend line on weekly and monthly TF. I will be probing a few shorts if I see another down day on this pair. Fundamentally, I still feel this pair is short for December with all the crap that is going on in DC, Greece and Spain. Some loser says something in a press release and this pair goes all crazy on me :-!
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,449
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:09pm Nov 27, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting VEEFX
Fantastic position building effort Cam. It is great to share such experiences. Curious if you could share further stats/details. For me, I would really like to know how much is your floating profit on E/U as % of account balance. I have experienced 40%-50% floating equity growth after which it gets super tough. I have overcome the hurdle of small realized losses though... in fact, I just love to see them in my account history and feel quite proud :-
Hi Vee,

Thank you, I thought your millipede was very impressive as well.

All my open positions are worth 2.8 times the account balance in this moment; my stats are very simple, mainly related to entries, how many wins, losses, break-even, and I keep how many realised Rs (as in R:R) I am in profit since I started this account.

What works best for me is to just turn my brain off ... I have spent thousands of hours trading and when I had wins (meaning, when the trend would continue after I entered and price did not come back to my entry for a while), I analysed them closely ... what was the market doing, how was the Weekly chart ? what about Daily ? ... down to the 5 minutes chart... what was the trend ? and everything else I could consider about a setup. So then in my mind there was a pattern forming, I could pick it without doing any thinking (it would look completely random to someone else and I would not be able to put it in words).

Everyone has to find their own pattern that they can recognise and trade, and that's their individual edge, and nobody else can give you that.

Also, aim for longevity, trade a size that is allowing you to lose ad nauseum and not get broke. Currently my win+be rate is alright, but it was really bad in the beginning, just keep at it, might take years to profit.

As you noticed by now, I avoided giving too many specific details because they are irrelevant to you. You have your own stats, aim to improve those, do not concern your mind with details about my or other trader's trading, it will only delay your success... you know how to trade, keep at it.

Cheers,

Cam
  • #5,450
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:03am Dec 1, 2012 9:03am
To All Members;

Please help, how could I get easy to read charts from these pictures? Thank you in advance.

fxpig



Quoting pipEASY
Why entering 2 positions is effective

EURUSD 4HR
http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/518/eurusd1.png

Look at next example, and see the benefit of entering at .00 with 2 positions

EURUSD 4HR
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2774/eurusd2.png
  • #5,451
  • Dec 1, 2012 5:38pm Dec 1, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting fxpig
To All Members;

Please help, how could I get easy to read charts from these pictures? Thank you in advance.

fxpig
Read all PipEasy posts from the begining of this thread.
  • #5,452
  • Edited 9:09pm Dec 1, 2012 8:59pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting timos
Read all PipEasy posts from the begining of this thread.
Hi timos,

Many thanks for your reply, however what process could I do making those charts clearer and easy to read?
As you knew there are many of them. These are only two samples.
  • #5,453
  • Dec 2, 2012 2:00pm Dec 2, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting fxpig
Hi timos,

Many thanks for your reply, however what process could I do making those charts clearer and easy to read?
As you knew there are many of them. These are only two samples.
There are lot of examples,some of them are have not the best quality but you can still read them.Check the thread from the beginning.
  • #5,454
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:58pm Dec 2, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting fxpig
Hi timos,

Many thanks for your reply, however what process could I do making those charts clearer and easy to read?
As you knew there are many of them. These are only two samples.
Unfortunately imageshack is free for a reason (along with its damb popup attempts). The file size is small and therefore not very good pictures emerge, even if you zoom in on the original pic displayed by imageshack.

I saved some screens to my computer then open them with Microsoft Office Picture Manager. It seems to have a little better zoom.

Also used Windows Photo Gallery for some pictures.

To swap between the 2 I right click on the filename in explorer and change it via the Properties > General > Change tabs & buttons.
This does change all of the xxx.png files until altered back - Good luck

I suppose there is a way to change the default program to open the picture directly from the forum, but havent worked on it.

cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #5,455
  • Dec 2, 2012 8:43pm Dec 2, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting scalpz
Unfortunately imageshack is free for a reason (along with its damb popup attempts). The file size is small and therefore not very good pictures emerge, even if you zoom in on the original pic displayed by imageshack.

I saved some screens to my computer then open them with Microsoft Office Picture Manager. It seems to have a little better zoom.

Also used Windows Photo Gallery for some pictures.

To swap between the 2 I right click on the filename in explorer and change it via the Properties > General > Change tabs & buttons.
This does...
It is amazing how one chooses to complicate their lives and the other doesn't want to spend a few minutes thinking out of the box

Step1: Go here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post5105285. Folks just like to ask questions rather that using the paperclick feature to pull up all attachments on the thread!
Step2: Download and open the zip file. I put all the posts made just by Graeme in the zip file to help new readers.
Step3: Open the html in IE browser by doubleclicking on the html file
Step4: Do a "File > Save As" and save the file with file type of "webpage, complete(*.htm, *.html)". This step will create a htm file along with all the images in a folder ending with "_files"
Step5: Repeat step 3 and 4 for all the files in the zip file

You now have ALL the gazilion images from Graeme on your local hard drive !!!! Doubleclick will bring up images in Microsoft photo gallery on vista.

Having said the above, simply using the zooming feature in IE or Safari will do the trick. Heck, if I can use these html files on my android smartphone, it is certainly viewable on your computer!
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,456
  • Dec 2, 2012 8:48pm Dec 2, 2012 8:48pm
Simply clicking CTRL + repeatedly will zoom in as well.

VEE -- how about EURAUD? Ugly looking close...
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #5,457
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:29pm Dec 2, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting zusch
Simply clicking CTRL + repeatedly will zoom in as well...
Oh you spoiler
Cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #5,458
  • Dec 2, 2012 10:49pm Dec 2, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting VEEFX
It is amazing how one chooses to complicate their lives and the other doesn't want to spend a few minutes thinking out of the box

Step1: Go here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post5105285. Folks just like to ask questions rather that using the paperclick feature to pull up all attachments on the thread!
Step2: Download and open the zip file. I put all the posts made just by Graeme in the zip file to help new readers.
Step3: Open the html in IE browser by doubleclicking on the html file
Step4: Do...

Many thanks to both Scalpz and Vee,

With forex one would never fail to find the answer from great effort putting up by those kind heart individuals. Such as you both, Graeme and many others on FF Forums, thank to FF as well which provides such great service.

BTW which time frame did you find, would give you least fault trade on IB and Long pin bar with consideration of PA?

pigfx
  • #5,459
  • Edited 4:11pm Dec 5, 2012 12:25pm | Edited 4:11pm
3 positions on euro usd.All be. 1H FB
Pips lost to build these positions 50. 16 pips per position average.

Update All positions died at be :/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-12-2012 8-20-46.jpg Size: 86 KB
  • #5,460
  • Edited Dec 6, 2012 1:53am Dec 5, 2012 7:30pm | Edited Dec 6, 2012 1:53am
Quoting timos
3 positions on euro usd.All be. 1H FB
Pips lost to build these positions 50. 16 pips per position average.

Update All positions died at be :/


Candid feedback:

- you are not following the stringent H4>H1>M15 TF rules that Joe implements in order to replicate his success.
- stall on M5 should indicate profit taking on half positions per Joe (looks like you were watching M5 per your screenshot)
- don't expect 100+ legs to grow when trading FB on H1. Hint: reset your expectation based on the scale of your chosen TF.
- Look at PA on H4, it would be nuts to expect any long positions to survive based on H1/FB. Hint: engulf with 5/10 ema cross
- pinbar and several FBs on H4. Hint: downward direction
- ask yourself why is there a pinbar on H4? Hint: draw a fib retracement on Weekly TF as you will see a 38.2% FIB bounce @ 1.3135.
- Hindsight? Draw downward trendline on Monthly TF and it clearly broke that TL by a mere 80+ pips. For TLs on MN, I like to wait for WK candle to close above/below the broken TL for long term confirmation of change in trend (just my rule!)

hope this helps.

EDIT: here's my long term play... hoping to break out of the nagging daily/weekly range away from 200ema and penant triangle on weekly TF... 3 shorts averaging 46 pips and 2 took off @ BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1045.jpg Size: 112 KB
Staying in my lane...
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