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Circular Trendlines

  • #2,221
  • Nov 20, 2012 7:22am Nov 20, 2012 7:22am
EUR Update

Here is behaviour that is lacking strength to move decisively upwards...
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  • #2,222
  • Nov 20, 2012 11:16pm Nov 20, 2012 11:16pm
EUR/USD Update

Here is a new outlook on the situation, with a estimated drop size till the lows of 2600
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  • #2,223
  • Nov 21, 2012 1:20am Nov 21, 2012 1:20am
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Update

Here is a new outlook on the situation, with a estimated drop size till the lows of 2600
Depends on my view zone between 1.2650 - 1.27 buy zone and shouldn't go more down than this But
We will see
first step for this move down if it going to happen we need 1h close under 2740
  • #2,224
  • Nov 21, 2012 10:23am Nov 21, 2012 10:23am
Quoting egkid
Depends on my view zone between 1.2650 - 1.27 buy zone and shouldn't go more down than this But
We will see
first step for this move down if it going to happen we need 1h close under 2740
1.2875 - 1.29 on the sight if this 1h close above 2820
  • #2,225
  • Nov 21, 2012 10:50am Nov 21, 2012 10:50am
Didnt want to post anything after the crazy rise upwards. Still not clear what its trying to do with 100% retracements happening.

The movement upwards was quite a surprise, and usually they happen in 150 pip increments, but this one was not like that.

Not quite sure what the market makers want to do right now. The 3000 level seems to be a level where price needs to get there before the year end. Now as far as what it signifies to them I am not quite sure.

Overall there is definetly one leg missing on the daily chart from the move from 2030 region, which should end up at 3400 level.

Unless we are in the middle of a triangle then all the jagged movements right now with 100% retracements make more sense. Maybe we need to be in a triangular zone until the real rise upwards manifests itself.

I wait till tomorrow to see what is happening.

Quoting egkid
1.2875 - 1.29 on the sight if this 1h close above 2820
  • #2,226
  • Nov 21, 2012 11:04am Nov 21, 2012 11:04am
Quoting Kambooj
Didnt want to post anything after the crazy rise upwards. Still not clear what its trying to do with 100% retracements happening.

The movement upwards was quite a surprise, and usually they happen in 150 pip increments, but this one was not like that.

Not quite sure what the market makers want to do right now. The 3000 level seems to be a level where price needs to get there before the year end. Now as far as what it signifies to them I am not quite sure.

Overall there is definetly one leg missing on the daily chart from the move from...

1-It fail to close above 2820 so no 29 till tomorrow
2- we will see 2770 one more time
3- i wait my 4h close above 2820 this will b good for long
4- still believe PA won't go under 2650 - 27
Catch u tomorrow , Hope ur ok and ur family
Thanks for your valuable posts
  • #2,227
  • Nov 22, 2012 6:22am Nov 22, 2012 6:22am
Quoting egkid
1-It fail to close above 2820 so no 29 till tomorrow
2- we will see 2770 one more time
3- i wait my 4h close above 2820 this will b good for long
4- still believe PA won't go under 2650 - 27
Catch u tomorrow , Hope ur ok and ur family
Thanks for your valuable posts
29 will b hit then 2770
  • #2,228
  • Nov 22, 2012 11:07am Nov 22, 2012 11:07am
EUR/USD Outlook

Here is the current view...

More upward action to continue towards 3000. We most probably will end up above 3000 by year end.

The tripple zero level of 3000 is a important fork in the road between deciding to go below 2000 from there or be at the 3600 level before a dip down.

On the weekly time frame we are coming close to a region where a strong dip downwards below 2000 can happen.

It is not clear what the market makers want to do and from which point to start the down draft, but for now there seems to be strong sentiment to keep price action hovering within a 300-400 pip zone around the 3000 level (ex 2700-3100) until further decision is made to where we will start the greatest and the fastest downdraft that the EUR has ever seen in the past 10 years.
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  • #2,229
  • Nov 23, 2012 8:03am Nov 23, 2012 8:03am
EUR/USD Outlook


H8
At a minimum price action on this time frame needs to hit either the blue line or the T2 line before any reaction happens in the reverse direction. Remember also that we are in a 5th wave move as shown by the elliot wave count on this time frame.

The 5th waves are one of the most trickiest trends to trade, because of 2 reasons:

1. It is a very highly corrective wave, marked by 5 segments that can have retraces up to 88.6 fibonacci level with respect to each other.
2. A phenomenon known as "5th Wave Failure" happens where the 5th wave fails to reach the top of wave 3 and in that case a trend change will happen that will retrace the entire impulse pattern in less time than it took for the 5th wave to form. This is a extremely tricky situation to recognize because by the same token it could also be a false reversal if we have a larger zig zag move that is being expected which goes above wave 3

Because of the above reasons, take extra care to manage your lots properly.

M30
The squeeze between the 2 blue circles can causue a large spike upwards, we are at the grey zone of the bigger circle and we have not lost momentum, which is good news for further up movement.

At a minimum either of the T1,T2 or T3 lines need to be hit before a reaction happens in the reverse direction. Also note that 2960 is the 61.8 fib retracement of 3140 to 2660, which adds to the importance of this zone and the overlapping trendlines.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #2,230
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:41am Nov 23, 2012 10:41am
Quoting egkid
29 will b hit then 2770
29 hit max top 2980
still believe 2770 will hit next week
  • #2,231
  • Nov 23, 2012 11:42am Nov 23, 2012 11:42am
EUR Update

I dont think so, we are most probably in a super impulse wave ending somewhere close to 3100 or 3300.

Here is the new view, the decisive break of the blue trendline has put this pair into a new stage for more upward action:


Quoting egkid
29 hit max top 2980
still believe 2770 will hit next week
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  • #2,232
  • Nov 23, 2012 1:57pm Nov 23, 2012 1:57pm
It's at a rather critical spot at the moment, in my opinion. Fundamentally for sure, as the Greek situation this weekend is crucial for future moves. Technically we are in a nice bull move from the 61.8% retrace I pointed out in my previous post; yet we are also at a critical 61.8% retrace for the down fib on the Daily chart as Kambooj pointed out in a previous post. The determining factor for the future move, I believe, lies in the hands of the meetings regarding Greece. I think if we don't break 1.3000 after the meetings then bears it is, but who knows as the year end is coming soon and some long term traders are cashing out; long terms are usually bigger players which means bigger moves. Lets see what we get in the beginning of next week, I am not entering a trade till we get a clearer sign fundamentally and technically.
  • #2,233
  • Nov 26, 2012 12:04am Nov 26, 2012 12:04am
Thanks for the insight and info,

As you have mentioned the key is the long term traders that will want their targets to be reached, so far the spike upwards from a median line perspective is behaving as it should and there is not much agitation in the upward movement to create room for "5th Wave Failure" scenario.

These scenarios (5th wave failue) have a lot of agitation towards the end and are more marked by jagged movements which is more getting eliminated as the thrust is developing.

Once the median line on the previous H8 charts gets hit, then any kind of surprises can happen. Its at that point that its best to stay out for a good while.

As we move into December, specially towards the middle of December many long term and short term traders will have more mixed emotions that will cause spikes in all directions to happen on a random basis. These emotions not only come from the situation in Europe, but more specific to this year will be December 21, 2012.

Even if the end of the world does not come, the belief among few will create situations where the mind will try to blame the market situation on a 2600 year old Mayan Prophecy or whatever you want to call it

I really dont care about any detail or proof or any other thing about these kind of stuff. But what concerns me is that somebody with big money who has a belief in these kind of stuff will get awfully scared and cause a move in the market that would create a snowball effect of panic.

Its like as if the collective mentality in the market is looking to create a situation of panic to say the prophecy is happening. It wouldnt happen if you dont want to make it happen.

Anyhow my 2 cents is that you might be like me who doesnt believe in these things, but if there is a group of people who control much bigger money and they want to create a situation to fullfill some old ancient believe, then you will also be affected whether you like it or not. So to be on the safe side make wise trading decisions towards the end of this year.


Quoting DaveXXXX
It's at a rather critical spot at the moment, in my opinion. Fundamentally for sure, as the Greek situation this weekend is crucial for future moves. Technically we are in a nice bull move from the 61.8% retrace I pointed out in my previous post; yet we are also at a critical 61.8% retrace for the down fib on the Daily chart as Kambooj pointed out in a previous post. The determining factor for the future move, I believe, lies in the hands of the meetings regarding Greece. I think if we don't break 1.3000 after the meetings then bears it is, but...
  • #2,234
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:45am Nov 27, 2012 12:45am
Quoting Kambooj
Thanks for the insight and info,

As you have mentioned the key is the long term traders that will want their targets to be reached, so far the spike upwards from a median line perspective is behaving as it should and there is not much agitation in the upward movement to create room for "5th Wave Failure" scenario.

These scenarios (5th wave failue) have a lot of agitation towards the end and are more marked by jagged movements which is more getting eliminated as the thrust is developing.

Once the median line on the previous H8 charts...
==============

Fascinating reading Kambooj and like you I don't believe their ancient forecast. The Bible is explicit that "no one" will know when it will happen, so why break our heads over such a forecast. Having said that, I totally agree about the possibility of chaos on that day.

Thank you for your excellent work; I am admirer.

Best wishes,
Hercs
  • #2,235
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:39am Nov 27, 2012 7:39am
EUR/USD Outlook

Here is the current view, with a possible stall in upward movement of the EUR/USD and the fact that today is the full moon, the reaction downwards from 3000 level is a bit of a possible hint for any down move to happen
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H8.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #2,236
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:02am Nov 27, 2012 8:02am
Thanks,
here is what is my further thoughts on this:


It seems that any excuse that these days the major banks can use to boost the price up or down suffices them for short term or long term profits.

If the banks, or the organizations who control the money feel that there is not enough belief in the market for December 21 2012, then thats not a problem. The way they think is like this:


<-----------------------------------

Since we control the money, let us think of something to do to make more money. We will start selling close to this date, to create the air of something scary is going to happen. Then because people are pre-programmed for something to happen close to this date, they start following us and a selling frenzy starts. Stocks and everything will come down or crash, and when everything has crashed we will go in and buy them dirt cheap.

Then we start putting our money at work by stabalizing prices and telling the media that this was just a small blip and maybe say that the calculation had errors in it and its not Dec 21 2012, but something else, thereby creating another time bomb for our profit in the future.

-------------------------------------->


offcourse this is a massively well organized body in the financial world and its decisions is well thought and organized in all senses of the word



Quoting Hercs
==============

Fascinating reading Kambooj and like you I don't believe their ancient forecast. The Bible is explicit that "no one" will know when it will happen, so why break our heads over such a forecast. Having said that, I totally agree about the possibility of chaos on that day.

Thank you for your excellent work; I am admirer.

Best wishes,
  • #2,237
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:31am Nov 27, 2012 8:31am
EUR Update

Here is a situation to keep in mind that can happen anytime during the rise of the 5th wave
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,238
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:25am Nov 28, 2012 9:25am
EUR/USD Outlook

Weekly
First series of rejections from the T1 line in Feb-May 2012 started to put importance on this trendline.
The second set of rejections which is happening now, could add much more strength in the rebound that will be taking place downwards from that line.

Once below the dotted black circle, which could be the vicinity of 2500-2600, then the drop will continue till around 1.1100 or 1.1000.
Its important to notice that from the rise off 2030 level in July of 2012 till now we have had considerable time go by with very little upward movement. If you notice the bounces off the T2 trendline in the past, the bounces have travelled a substantial distance compared to the distance that we have travelled so far.

H8
We have 2 days in a row of downward activity, with very little signs of hesitation along the way and a shift in the angle of attack on the H8 chart. Important trendlines on the H1 chart have been broken very swiftly.

A new path of motion has been drawn on this time frame that is shown by the solid blue lines. These lines were drawn based on the T1 line shown where a major action/reaction has happened in the past from that line. With the speed we are progressing right now from the drop at 3000, we could very well break the base of the circle and go beyond that to the T2 or T3 trendlines. Below these trendlines (T2/T3) will have huge acceleration impacts that was discussed previously on the weekly time frame. It is also noticable here to see how the center of the black circle has provided ample resistance and price was not able to penetrate the grey zone of this circle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H8.jpg Size: 162 KB
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  • #2,239
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:54am Nov 30, 2012 8:54am
EUR/USD Outlook

Downward break risk is increasing as the days passing by. Here is a new outlook on the situation:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H8.jpg Size: 149 KB
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  • #2,240
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:38pm Nov 30, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting Kambooj
EUR/USD Outlook

Downward break risk is increasing as the days passing by. Here is a new outlook on the situation:
i want 2770 lol
i wait this move down to add more Long depends on my 4h
closing above 1.30 give possibility to 3170
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