Building an equity millipede | Page 272 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Thegman's Journal (Equity Millipede Concept) 102 replies

Trading an Equity Millipede 23 replies

Equity millipede & Flying Buddha trading journal 9 replies

Build an Equity Millipede with the filtered Flying Buddha 171 replies

Application Development - Journal of Building an equity millipede 14 replies

Attachments: Building an equity millipede
Exit Attachments

Building an equity millipede

  • #5,421
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:58pm Nov 7, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting zusch
I agree with your decision not to diversify here. I'd hold till the end of the month at least as last month was a very attractive pin bar and we are already trading below last months lows. Bears in firm control.
My concern is the fiscal cliff situation in the US which could wipe out all my legs. Watch out for stronger USD until year-end (even with Uncle Ben's QE3 in place)
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,422
  • Nov 8, 2012 9:08am Nov 8, 2012 9:08am
Quoting VEEFX
My concern is the fiscal cliff situation in the US which could wipe out all my legs. Watch out for stronger USD until year-end (even with Uncle Ben's QE3 in place)
VEEFX, I have a question for you.
What do you use to decide on starting new millipede? I am not asking about price indicators. I am asking about the concept.
In other words, not diversification and not closing the old one, but starting brand new series of trades into the new direction.
Depending on what timeframe you are trading there might be a concept of trading that makes profit while trading both ways without touching hurdles of diversification. It doesn't work in long term ranges, but if you spot a bottom or top with 1000 pips move then even trading both ways could bring 100% profit.
True knowledge is knowing that you know nothing. Socrates.
  • #5,423
  • Nov 8, 2012 9:24am Nov 8, 2012 9:24am
Trade Explorer can be set with your account number hidden, can't it?

you may also hide the info that you choose to, like lot, equity, ......

Quoting VEEFX
if there is a way to copy my live trades into a demo account, I might consider starting a journal with trade explorer. I hate to edit my screenshots to preserve my privacy (hide account number etc). Stacking requires a lot of mental focus and forum participation will affect my results.
  • #5,424
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:33pm Nov 8, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting VEEFX
My concern is the fiscal cliff situation in the US which could wipe out all my legs. Watch out for stronger USD until year-end (even with Uncle Ben's QE3 in place)
Sure anything is possible. Maybe closing your smallest leg like Graeme suggests would be an option to recoup any losses you incurred while building your legs, and let your mind forget about your open positions left over. Just seems unlikely that the current monthly candle will close green. Also worth mentioning that the long term trend has been down since '09 so no reason to believe that the trend will suddenly stop just because you have open positions. Just my 2 cents.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #5,425
  • Edited 11:19pm Nov 8, 2012 8:57pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting VEEFX
if there is a way to copy my live trades into a demo account, I might consider starting a journal with trade explorer. I hate to edit my screenshots to preserve my privacy (hide account number etc). Stacking requires a lot of mental focus and forum participation will affect my results.
A simple EA can copy your trades to a demo account. I do expect to see your trade journal.
  • #5,426
  • Edited 11:57pm Nov 8, 2012 11:25pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting Sarkel
VEEFX, I have a question for you.
What do you use to decide on starting new millipede? I am not asking about price indicators. I am asking about the concept.
In other words, not diversification and not closing the old one, but starting brand new series of trades into the new direction.
Depending on what timeframe you are trading there might be a concept of trading that makes profit while trading both ways without touching hurdles of diversification. It doesn't work in long term ranges, but if you spot a bottom or top with 1000 pips move then...
Good question Sarkel but first I must say there is no such thing as 100% profit but understand what you are inferring and I have practiced 1000 pip range trading. It is certainly doable with a bit of creativity.

Graeme's advice is to focus on E/U as your staple diet and once you see some growth then expand exposure into other pairs instead of increasing lot size or increasing risk. With the ECB and euro nations is such chaos, I have stayed away from E/U most of the year with some stacks at strategic levels which never survived. So current my approach is this....don't tie yourself into picking a few pairs on a weekly basis based on your hindsight. Instead, make it a routine to keep all 20+ charts open all the time, scan them are constance frequency and during important new releases, keep a close eye on currency strength and COT and razor sharp you focus on pairs that have explosive momentum in real time. picture says a 1000 words so here it is... I expanded my exposure to these many pairs this month purely based on currency strength around important announcements

EDIT: Profit column is in pips so E/U is 159 pips and not 1,590 pips :-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1035.jpg Size: 52 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,427
  • Nov 8, 2012 11:34pm Nov 8, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting NoFear
A simple EA can copy your trades to a demo account. I do expect to see your trade journal.
Thanks NoFear. Could this EA copy trades from one USA commission-based broker to a UK based broker ? if you mean trade journal via trade explorer against my demo account then yes.. that is the intent although I am not sure if I would start now or from 1/1.

Historically, I have lost most of my annual profits in november and december with the exception of last year (which was my first micro-profitable year since 2007!). Last year, I think I closed one long leg in october to take me into single-digit profit for the year. As you can see, I am still fighting my own daemons like most of us
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,428
  • Edited Nov 9, 2012 2:03am Nov 8, 2012 11:39pm | Edited Nov 9, 2012 2:03am
Quoting charvo
Trade Explorer can be set with your account number hidden, can't it?

you may also hide the info that you choose to, like lot, equity, ......
Not good enough for me charvo as I don't trust the MT4's investor password with live accounts exposed in public domain. I also don't want to disclose my broker, deposits/withdrawals history, margin/leverage, etc
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,429
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:46am Nov 9, 2012 8:46am
Quoting VEEFX
Thanks NoFear. Could this EA copy trades from one USA commission-based broker to a UK based broker ?
If you are trading on a MT platform via this USA broker, then you can copy your trades to any other broker with MT platform. If your source plafform is other than MT, then you have to find a way to export order history to a csv file for copying purpose.

Quote
if you mean trade journal via trade explorer against my demo account then yes.. that is the intent although I am not sure if I would start now or from 1/1.
Trader Explorer of demo account is good enough for us. Very impressed with you stacking skills. And want to understand more dimesions about your stacking( cost, timing etc).

Quote
Historically, I have lost most of my annual profits in november and december with the exception of last year (which was my first micro-profitable year since 2007!). Last year, I think I closed one long leg in october to take me into single-digit profit for the year. As you can see, I am still fighting my own daemons like most of us
You are getting better. Graeme will be happy for you.
  • #5,430
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:05pm Nov 9, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting NoFear
If you are trading on a MT platform via this USA broker, then you can copy your trades to any other broker with MT platform. If your source plafform is other than MT, then you have to find a way to export order history to a csv file for copying purpose.


Trader Explorer of demo account is good enough for us. Very impressed with you stacking skills. And want to understand more dimesions about your stacking( cost, timing etc).


You are getting better. Graeme will be happy for you.
Sounds good noFear. Please pm me when you can have this EA developed. Both demo and live platforms will be MT4/5 digit broker.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,431
  • Nov 14, 2012 8:26pm Nov 14, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting VEEFX
......
VEEFX, Thank you for taking time answering my question.
True knowledge is knowing that you know nothing. Socrates.
  • #5,432
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:01pm Nov 14, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting zusch
I agree with your decision not to diversify here. I'd hold till the end of the month at least as last month was a very attractive pin bar and we are already trading below last months lows. Bears in firm control.
Got clobbered last night with the upward spike in E/A during London session. I had 1580+ pips across 6 short positions and just a 100 pip move reduced my floating pips to 1200 pips closing 2 legs at BE. Just closed 2 legs this morning and left two of the largest legs.

Moves like this are the biggest downside of this trading approach as a small reversal could wipe out days/weeks of position building. One has to truly believe in the full potential of this method and have nerves of steel to see 5-10+% of their floating equity reduce to ashes! I knew this vulnerability exists since I ran into this thread and have been researching for over a year now to find a creative way to protect floating profits and yet accommodate for infinite growth. There is a downside to every possible strategy I have tried till date to prevent a negative spike in floating equity. Either one has to accept a dip in floating pips like Graeme as ignore drawdowns in account balance and freeze/unfreeze all positions at frequent pip internals.

I still bleed when I remember short squeeze like this one on the same pair back in May 2010. It was fresh on my mind when I posted earlier on this pair ;-(
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1038.jpg Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1037.jpg Size: 70 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,433
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:02am Nov 15, 2012 12:02am
Quoting VEEFX
...
I trade primarily on COT and OI. Stopped using price indicators completely. Stopped doing diversification either; it's just sucking my brain out.
http://ph.terraimpera.com/11-15-2012...53-18%20AM.gif
True knowledge is knowing that you know nothing. Socrates.
  • #5,434
  • Nov 15, 2012 8:08am Nov 15, 2012 8:08am
My trades at E/U Both at be now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 11 2012 1h trades.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #5,435
  • Nov 15, 2012 8:18am Nov 15, 2012 8:18am
I think this may be a mini break out 1h euro usd.I didn't added position here because of fear -.-
Share your thoughts guys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euo usd 15 11 2012 1h mini be.jpg Size: 171 KB
  • #5,436
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:49am Nov 15, 2012 10:49am
4 positions stacked at aud/chf 2 currently at be.
Price is going down and is just 50 pips away from 200 sma,H4. I think this is good point to watch,if price goes below 200 sma,there may be lot of pips to be made.

Regards
Tim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15-11-2012 6-45-27 aud chf.jpg Size: 298 KB
  • #5,437
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:53am Nov 15, 2012 10:53am
Quoting VEEFX
Got clobbered last night with the upward spike in E/A during London session. I had 1580+ pips across 6 short positions and just a 100 pip move reduced my floating pips to 1200 pips closing 2 legs at BE. Just closed 2 legs this morning and left two of the largest legs.

Moves like this are the biggest downside of this trading approach as a small reversal could wipe out days/weeks of position building. One has to truly believe in the full potential of this method and have nerves of steel to see 5-10+% of their floating equity reduce to ashes!...
Lower timeframes were giving some hints that the streak of 10 down days in a row could get snapped, but really monthly/weekly/daily were all still saying sell and its not our job to predict when that streak will get snapped. Good job taking two positions off the table when you did. Monthly chart is still on your side for your two remaining positions, but the bulls are following up yesterday very strongly and now the weekly chart is looking bullish. I've attached the 4hr chart showing those hints. I've also sent you a private message and I hope to hear from you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.15.12 EURAUD 4HR.png Size: 24 KB
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #5,438
  • Nov 16, 2012 10:33am Nov 16, 2012 10:33am
Hi, This will be my first post on this forum but I have been lurking around for over a year now. I have been avidly reading this thread and have started to build a short leg on aud/usd in the hope that the long term uptrend is ripe for a reversal. I hope that the current drop will continue at least down to the bottom TL of the triangle on the weekly chart.

I know that triangle patterns are usually a sign of continuation of the main trend and so will not be surprised if this is the final leg down and we then see a continue of the bullish trend up and past the highs.

The reason for my post is to ask about diversification as although I have not got that far yet (my legs not mature enough to even consider diversification) I know this is something that people seem to be struggling with. It seems to be the one part of Graemes method that is the hardest for people to crack.

I am wondering if this is largely dependent on where you are in the world geographically. I am from the UK and use FXCM as my broker. I have no problem in placing buy and sell positions in any direction and there is no aggregation of orders either.

I notice Graeme is from Austrialia and uses FXCM whereas many of you seem to be from the US with no hedging allowed on the same account. I am wondering if this is why diversification is proving so difficult?

I can relate to Graemes 'going with the flow of the market' and although I haven't started diversifying yet on my live account, experiments on demo suggests to me that it is not as onerous as you are finding it IF you can run the positions on the basis I can in my UK account. In fact in some respects it is quite nice to place an opposing position to your main leg (obviously at a relatively low risk opportunity) as you have the protection of all the open positions from your main leg to buffer any losses/drawdown should the market move against you.

I do think diversification is the real key to the method as it does truely allow you to let the market decide and take away any angst if market conditions change unexpectedly.

Apologies if this has been discussed at length before but I would be interested in your views.
  • #5,439
  • Nov 16, 2012 4:40pm Nov 16, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting zusch
Lower timeframes were giving some hints that the streak of 10 down days in a row could get snapped, but really monthly/weekly/daily were all still saying sell and its not our job to predict when that streak will get snapped. Good job taking two positions off the table when you did. Monthly chart is still on your side for your two remaining positions, but the bulls are following up yesterday very strongly and now the weekly chart is looking bullish. I've attached the 4hr chart showing those hints. I've also sent you a private message...
Sure Zusch. Interesting how trader's anticipation varies :-

Weekly Chart was never looking bullish imho as price bounced near last week's open price. I personally never factor the current candle in medium/long term trend analysis. Current candle (i.e. wick formation) is used only in entries as described in numerous wick interpretation posts by Graeme.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1039.jpg Size: 75 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,440
  • Nov 16, 2012 6:43pm Nov 16, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting VEEFX
Sure Zusch. Interesting how trader's anticipation varies :-

Weekly Chart was never looking bullish imho as price bounced near last week's open price. I personally never factor the current candle in medium/long term trend analysis. Current candle (i.e. wick formation) is used only in entries as described in numerous wick interpretation posts by Graeme.
Could you explain what you mean by this? I don't quite understand.

I think weekly chart is bullish now simply because its green and it retraced over nearly all of last weeks range. I consider a retrace past 61.8% of previous candle a possible reversal sign like Graeme mentions in post 965.

However, monthly hindsight of down is still valid until the month closes so next week has a good chance to continue the trend down. There is a long bottom wick on the current monthly candle and if the monthly candle were to close as it is now, that would just be a weird candle to follow up last months pinbar.

To summarize weekly and monthly are giving conflicting signals to me. One will eventually win out (usually higher timeframe wins). Graeme talks about this in post 2012.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
5 traders viewing now