Circular Trendlines

Target reached (with force), but no support was found there.

I told you

Very strong possible to see 2720

Touched I'm In

Had to wait out 2 days for this market to see how its reacting to the downdraft and specially the lows of 2700 before deciding to forecast again.

On the daily chart we have 2 situations, one is a very important support level denoted by the blue line, and the other is the possibility of oscilation between the 23.6 and the 38.2 fib levels shown. the fib level is measured from 4930 to 2030. We are looking for a reaction at this level, if 2700 breaks we can easily slide down to 2400 and even 2200, so 2700 remains a important level for the interim movement.

Any slide towards 2200 can trigger further market frenzy to go below that level towards 1500.

So for the pruposes of stabalization of the movement of EUR it seems from past history that market has been very reluctant to allow movement to go much beyond 2000 level. The weekly chart shows 1650 in 2005, but right now tendency seems to be to not allow this to happen.

On the H8 chart, several trendlines with different angles of ascend (upward movement) have been drawn. Because price action is at a critical level, we dont know yet which set of lines T1/T2/T3 or A1/A2 will be respected, but we need to see them all.

The blue curve is very close to the T3 trendline and reinforcing further level of support. We are at the 38.2 retracement of the entire move from the low of 2030 to 3200. Since we are very close to the vicinity of the pole of the blue curve, it remains critical to stay away from any sell opportunities until we see whether a strong bounce off the pole is occuring or not.

If a bounce occurs and a up trend takes shape till tuesday, then we could be seeing the highs of 3300/3400 very soon.

If this does not happen, then we get a mediocare bounce upwards with further action going southwards continue very soon.

The new moon which is usually a 80% sell setup on the EUR/USD pair is coming our way on Tuesday November 13th. Up until then there is high possibility of a rise.

I will be watching closely for a sell setup either on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

its just the way its hesitating and moving slowly upwards is causing me to think that after all we might not have a strong bounce down from that level.

Depends,
right now there has not been enough time spent at the lows of 2700. If for few more days we are still stuck in the 2690/2750 zone, then we might be going lower.

Here is a look at the weekly chart, which suggests a high probability that major trend changes on the weekly time frame will not happen that quickly:

A contracting triangle at the end of a move usually denotes a reversal in the opposite direction. For this reason it is imperative that the T1 trendline gets broken.

In the event of such event a complete retracement of the triangle will happen, that will produce a perimeter to perimeter move within the black circle. Failure within the next 24 hours to produce such a thrust will raise the odds for a pole break of the shown circle that will cause a thrust to go and break the T2 trendline

EUR Update

After 2 days of hesitation at around the lows of 2700, a very likely upward move will happen soon.

New moon is tomorrow, since there was no rise in the last couple of days, the expectations would be a turn around in the market going bullish, with a slight retracement either happening tomorrow or wednesday. Overall expecting sudden strong, upward movement

Here is the chart:

my long still in play

In a previous post you mentioned that a new moon is usually 80% chance of being bearish for E/U. Just to clarify, are you saying that tomorrow's full moon may be in the 20% chance of being bullish?

Tomorrow (November 13th) is the New Moon

Usually +/-1 days within this time period, a major move happens.

My own past analysis of the moon cycles of the EUR/USD correlates a sell scenario with the cycles.

In a bearish trend, the new moon is a relative high from which the drop happens.

In a bullish trend, the new moon is a bit confusing because I have seen both a relative high and a relative low happen, from which a reaction in the opposite direction happens, but one thing is common and that is a significant move happens within this time period, which strongly correlates a oversold/overbought scenario on the RSI. So your reading on the RSI is probably very authentic during this time period.

Right now from October 17th which was very interestingly 2 days after the new moon, we started a down trend

This downtrend on the H4 chart, has hit a low very close to the New Moon cycle. No reaction yet has happened in the opposite direction, but also no reasonable retracement has happened upwards to say that we are now setting up for a sell scenario. By a reasonable retracement I mean at least to 2800 by now

So now because we are still in a uptrend on the daily time frame this so call "New Moon" might be actually a relative low, from which a upward move will happen. From the way that this pair is still hovering at the 2700 area, I suspected that we are being setup for a reaction upwards. The H8 channel lines on a earlier post that I had:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post6181523

still point towards a possible bullish breakout.

RSI(13) on both the daily and the H4 time frames is also low.

Another 24 hour will start to throw more light on the situation.

If you are looking for a moon calendar, here is a good one that I use all the time:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldcloc...&afl=-11&day=1

You need to get the calendar for the session you are trading. So if you live in England/Germany/France and trade the openning of the EUR session, then any calendar that corresponds to Moonrise/Moonset for London, Franfurt, or Paris would do fine. I use the New York calendar, since thats the session that I usually trade

One other thing that I missed above is that

When the trend is bullish, then the Full Moon time is usually a relative low, and the percentages of time that this happens is also more than when the trend is bearish (We are just talking about the Full Moon Here).

In a bearish trend the full moon acts a bit confusing just like in a bullish trend the new moon acts a bit confusing. But again the vicinity of both these cycles point to a strong move.

if you are interested in this concept, there is a book by the name of "The Idiot & The Moon" by Randal Ashbourne, which talks about moon cycle trading.

He claims that the results that he got were a 75% improvement in stocks and commodities.

He uses the moon cycles to trade the S&P, and the basis of his system is a indicator based system that basically you look for buy signals within the duration of the Full Moon to New Moon cycle and then you look for Sell Signals within the duration of the New Moon to Full Moon cycles, thats a period of 2 x 14 days.

I dont necessary agree with him that Full Moon to New Moon look for buys and viceversa, but I do agree that a relative high/low happens very close to these cycles.

I also agree with him on the minor cycles such as the First Quarter and the Third Quarter where he claims that there is additional lows and highs that happen within these times too.

I have not taken other charts such as the USD/JPY or GBP/USD to find any correlation between the moon cycles and price movement. One pair is enough to keep me busy for a long time.


Hopefull it helps.

Fascinating info. Thank you for that.

EUR/USD Outlook

So far the movement upwards since yesterday has not shown strong desire to dip further down, at the same time its movment is a very struggling effort to try to make new highs. On the higher time frames (H8) the movement is hitting the last line of support in the channel (T1). This support has so far stood its test. Since its the nature of such channels is to make a strong effort to reach their median line(s), in this cas M1 or M2, then slight bounces off the T1 trendline cannot be taken lightly, and are great opportunities to maintain a long position.

The lower time frame of M15 is showing a break out of a triangle. The break has retested the B/D trendline, which is standard behaviour, and is slowly making its way up, again congruent with a trend change behaviour.

So far a upward trend is what we will be looking forward to.

EUR/USD Outlook

The drop downwards might have a high probability of halting around the highs of 2600, so for this reason it could mean a false move downwards.
More to follow soon...

EUR Update

Be aware of probable bull setup...

EUR Update

Here is another view...
Keep a eye on how resistance and support levels are getting respected.

Currently still bullish on overall sentiment.

EUR Update

Here is a new update on the situation...

EUR/USD Outlook

Amid hopes for the pair to pursue higher highs, behaviour of price action in the 2800 zone, is not congruent with further up move. Probabilities run high that we see a lower low than 2660 from which another attempt will be made to go up. For now stay away from going long on this pair in the lows of 2800