EUR/CHF

It's due US NFP data release ...SNB were buying EUR.

Reserves -700m last week. Offloading?

Massive offloading lol. At this rate the 160b extra reserves will take a bit more than 4 years ...

Not what I'm expecting (the unloading)......

But EZ crisis is still there & will persist for some time (quote"Merkel: Euro debt crisis will last at least five more years") - so just wait for more inflows into CHF to strengthen it to a level we can buy again.

The peg will also stay for some years to come. So the game is still on - only patience.... patience.....

thats what I meant.

They are quite conservative as we all know well so four years could be a good target for SNB.

Still the outflow is interesting having minus retun on two year bunds again.

do you know, when is the next SNB meeting?

13th Dec 2012, if not 14th Dec

Housing market reached bubble zone :
http://www.ubs.com/global/en/about_u...20121105a.html

With tomorrows CPI data, y/y inflation will be zero, so the end of deflation is reached.

Then SNB might become more busy again.

1.22 by the end of this week

So go up
Rgds

BUY LONG!

CPI yoy minus 0,2
dont know why to expect inflation when theres a demand shock in the economy

You're right, CPI was below expectation, therefore still negative YoY.

I expect inflation to rise because
a) SNB printed money at a rate and in quantities never seen in any stable country
b) there is a housing bubble
c) unemployment is very low
d) wages rise (moderately)
e) producer prices rise
f) import prices have risen in the last 12 months for most currencies except EUR
g) negative MoM inflation will go out of the yearly stats in the next 3 months, so even with zero MoM, YoY CPI would become positive
h) demand shock is not so strong given their export numbers and rising wages

1.2060 seems to be a strong support. Next is 1.2050.

Anyone has got Fib projections?

(maybe you're wrong)

I hope that you are right.

I mean he has delivered no explanation of his thoughts. Here are mines...

a) not turning over yet, can be skimmed out... SNB is printing for at least a year now and there is no inflation yet. In the beginning of the printing action i thought inflation would come, but i'm really doubting now. There are other factors, that hold inflation low.
b)what do we expect? further increase of the housing bubble? bursting of the housing bubble? Scenario increase: (maybe this case could lead into infaltionary tendecies, because sellers of land and buildings are having more money in their pocket. But do they spend? What do they spend? They are not buying daily goods, such as bread, fuel, water, electricity, etc... They will safe the cash or leave for a vacation on the seychelles or so... Scenario bursting: lot of money gets destroyed... less money, less demand, less inflation, less wealth, less everything, except of more cheap houses you can afford... Every houseowner won't have any money left for anything, so there will be no more inflation pressure out of consumption. strange that we do not have inflation out of increased demand for consumption coming out of laid open money from the increasing housing bubble!?
c) there won't be less unemployment 3 % is base unemployment... at least when housing bubble is going to burst, we have a lot of people from the constructing sector on the street, which will not be that much consuming anymore. Banking sector is another issue... won't think of increasing staffnumbers in the financial sector. ;-)
d) wages rise... I leave this point untouched.
e) producer prices rise because of what? Wages? Oil? FX-Rates? Or is the expensive workplace switzerland the reason? no idea.
f) Import prices will not rise, as long as Swissie in not getting lower against other currencies... it was last year USDCHF @ 0.78, now it is at 0.945. logically import prices rose from that point of view. but if we take into consideration, USDCHF is coming from 1.20, i'm not afraid that we'll have much infaltionary pressure from that side... I see the USD not climbing to 1.20 next weeks amid the fiscal cliff ahead. And still the main trading partner is EU, which currency is still pegged @ 1.20xx. Still we have much higher prices in switzerland than in other countries... check out http://www.preisbarometer.ch/

ZURICH--Switzerland's economy may grow at a slower pace this year than the 1% the country's central bank forecast in September, Fritz Zurbrügg, a member of the Swiss National Bank policy-setting directorate says in a newspaper interview Sunday.

"Taking the International Monetary Fund's forecasts into account, the slowdown of the Swiss economy has probably accelerated," Zurbrügg said in an interview with Swiss weekly NZZ am Sonntag.

In September, the SNB lowered its 2012 growth forecast to 1% from 1.5%, down from 1.9% growth in 2011. The central bank's next quarterly monetary policy assessment is scheduled for Dec. 13.

Zurbrügg reiterated that the SNB would take measures if a worsening of the economic situation made this necessary.

Newspaper website: http: www.nzz.ch

Lifting the peg to 1.30 for example?

As a central bank, SNB cannot do much. Unlike the government (Finance Ministry), they can only manipulate the currency for price stability, and to 'help the economy' the only thing they can do is to counter the CHF's strength. Only two direct methods - tax the foreign inflow, or increase the peg.

A very very slow downtrend towards the floor. The daily chart broke thru 100day EMA, testing the 100d SMA. The 1.2050s is a hard psychological support to break thru I think.

Oanda's statistics show many new open long positions from here 1.2050 to 1.2100.

Dont know Im not Zuerbrugg but worsening economic situation can cause deflationary situation, like now one year after the floor still got no price stability inflation isn't near the desireable 2% (however a lot of people was expecting it after the famous one year anniversary). I can imagine that they already see some figures that indicate deflation situation can worsen together with GDP. In this case maybe yes that can be a trigger for 1,25.
At least SNB can make some profit for the owners. If they do it again maybe they dont even have to do anything it would go by itself to 1,3 in a year beacuse if they do it again everyone would expect a third floor.