The 'feel-good' effect of the EZ now with the willingness of cooperation of ECB, EC, IMF & Germany helping out Greece, Spain is just the sugar coating. Troika is ok with Greece's austerity & many parties are willing to help Spain.
But in real sense, the EZ crisis is far from over.
All the good or as-expected news without the presence of any bad or unexpectedly bad news is keeping EURCHF stable at 1.209 area. This is still despite a +ve cashflow into Swiss. I believe CHF will eventually strengthen due to gradual inflow of funds into Swiss. Jordan believes otherwise. I think he's wrong at least till the end of this year.
And as 1.2000 floor remains intact, the long EURCHF game will always be on.
I am new in FxFactory . I trade EUR/CHF since the 1.20 PEG was inserted by SNB and i would like to ask u if u agree with that Goldman Sachs Jim ONeill told in April 2012. He told he sees EUR/CHF at 1.25 .
I am new in FxFactory . I trade EUR/CHF since the 1.20 PEG was inserted by SNB and i would like to ask u if u agree with that Goldman Sachs Jim ONeill told in April 2012. He told he sees EUR/CHF at 1.25 .
Tiago
Ignored
That's a rather gratuitous question since
1) he did not see CHF falling by itself but only by SNB floor hike
2) he abandoned this view long time ago
3) who cares what he said so many months ago http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...25-715573.html
I am new in FxFactory . I trade EUR/CHF since the 1.20 PEG was inserted by SNB and i would like to ask u if u agree with that Goldman Sachs Jim ONeill told in April 2012. He told he sees EUR/CHF at 1.25 .
Tiago
The Swiss franc remains "extraordinarily" strong against the euro, the vice president of the Swiss National Bank was quoted as saying Friday.
"Experience shows that such an overvaluation corrects itself over time," Jean-Pierre Danthine said in an interview published on the website of business paper Finanz und Wirtschaft.
The SNB imposed a floor of 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro in September last year, after the franc surged to near parity against the euro, the currency of its biggest trading partners, adding to pressure on Swiss exporters and the economy.
He said the floor is still widely supported. "If we had done nothing, the Swiss economy would have risked to collapse," said Mr. Danthine, who added he doesn't expect the euro zone to fall apart.
The SNB has warned repeatedly of the dangers of the Swiss property market overheating and has introduced a capital buffer to counter excessive price trends in the market but has yet to use it.
Mr. Danthine reiterated that the buoyant property market--driven by historically low mortgage rates, the influx of cash-rich migrants and low unemployment--remains a concern.
The SNB will evaluate third-quarter data on the real estate market before providing a new assessment, he said. When asked if there is a bubble in the real estate market, he said: "Difficult to say. We always avoided the word bubble. Whether there has been a bubble, you always know only in hindsight."
Hard to tell SNB's next move from here - now it seems that they are focusing a lot on the property 'bubble'. This may weigh a lot for their next monetary policy decision coming this mid-Dec.
Hard to tell SNB's next move from here - now it seems that they are focusing a lot on the property 'bubble'. This may weigh a lot for their next monetary policy decision coming this mid-Dec.
Ignored
For me everything as expected:
-they are concerned about housing bubble
-they fear inflation (why else would you have concerns about low unemployment, cash influx, low mortgage rates ?)
-rate remains between 1,201 and 1,22.
The "extraordinary" overvaluation is a statement in view of the purchase power parity forgetting other factors such as EZ risk and strong Swiss exports.
So my conclusion is unchanged, see my four most likely steps.
For me everything as expected:
-they are concerned about housing bubble
-they fear inflation (why else would you have concerns about low unemployment, cash influx, low mortgage rates ?)
-rate remains between 1,201 and 1,22.
The "extraordinary" overvaluation is a statement in view of the purchase power parity forgetting other factors such as EZ risk and strong Swiss exports.
So my conclusion is unchanged, see my four most likely steps.
Ignored
Still think that they are quite keen on making profit on their record reserves. And they have the tools to achieve it.
0840 GMT [Dow Jones] Citi sees upside in EUR/CHF and says there is a credible risk that the SNB could successfully raise the current 1.20 floor in the cross, for the first time since the introduction of the line in the sand fourteen months ago. "With euro-zone tail risk much lower than in May and June, the SNB's 1.20 floor for EUR/CHF looks less binding than at any time since it was initiated," Citi says, adding that market pressure could nudge EUR/CHF organically higher. "This tells us that there is a credible risk that the SNB could succeed in raising the floor for EUR/CHF for the first time since the introduction of the floor," Citi says, adding its "panic fair value" model suggests the cross should be at 1.30-1.35, as market conditions justify these levels. EUR/CHF now at 1.2090. ([email protected]
