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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #59,241
  • Oct 25, 2012 12:15pm Oct 25, 2012 12:15pm
and for cable this could be the scenario

dotted down line in the chart is on the closing 4hr prices and prices broke that and now closed above that i dont know if its real of fake only time will tell and supp/res/supp scenario is also there in the up demand line

click on the chart for larger view
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Learning Requires Failure
  • #59,242
  • Oct 25, 2012 12:53pm Oct 25, 2012 12:53pm
USDOLLAR is recovering which i think is probable sad for bulls

GOLD is also capping below 1719 in this current wave 4 daily down which can go as low as 1650 for deeper retrace
because wave 2 was simple shallow retrace

good luck
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Learning Requires Failure
  • #59,243
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:43pm Oct 25, 2012 9:43pm
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Absolutely true!
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...02_thumb18.jpg
  • #59,244
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:45pm Oct 25, 2012 9:45pm
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=h1
  • #59,245
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:49pm Oct 25, 2012 9:49pm
Mental characteristics: Discipline

As new traders it is easy to become overwhelmed by emotion, a state in which it is impossible to remain focused, in the moment, and objective about what we are seeing on the charts.
Most traders do not realize that successful trading comes from a belief and confidence within oneself. It’s an attitude. It’s thinking like a winner. It’s trading to win, not trading to lose.
As you know, trading is a zero sum game. You either are a winner or a loser. For anyone preparing a trading plan, the first thing you must do is to get to know yourself. Here are some questions to think about: When you are wrong, why don’t you admit it? Why do you let your loss accumulate? Why don’t you let your profits run?
Have you ever wondered why few win and most don’t, when these days every trader has access to the same tools, the same research, same charts, same methods that work?
It’s because the person makes the difference.
There are 6 mental characteristics that define the majority of Forex traders:

  1. Discipline
  2. Passion
  3. Confidence
  4. Courage
  5. Patience
  6. Persistence

http://www.acegazette.com/en/educati...iscipline.html

  • #59,246
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:07am Oct 26, 2012 1:07am
Good morning all,

US corporate earnings season is not going exceptionally well and the equity markets are responding accordingly. This supports my earlier claims that no matter how much easing the Fed does, if the numbers aren't there to provide legs for the equity boost, it just becomes a bubble full of hot air. While Q-Eternity will most likely prevent a market crash similar to the one in 2008 (which is probably what Benny had in mind anyway), I just cannot see how the equity indices are supposed to break above the 2007 highs when the underlying fundamentals are worse now than then. As such, I now expect to see the continuation of a correction downwards as investors become more risk averse. Today I especially see more equity market losses as it is Friday and I'm looking for a sell-off in risk assets and added flows to safe havens before the weekend.

The economic calendar today is not very busy. The key EZ items are the German Consumer Climate index at 06:00, Spanish unemployment rate at 07:00, Italian business Confidence at 08:00 and Italy is holding a BTP auction and publishing results at approx 09:10. From the US we get quite a whopper as at 12:30 the q/q GDP figure is expected at 1.9% vs 1.3% prior. This is going to be key for the USD because if we do in fact get that much of a q/q increase, then that justifies a stronger USD going forward, even in a risk-on environment. As I stated yesterday and a few times before that, I fully expect the US to lead any recovery with Asia trailing behind and Europe dragging through the ditch.

Technically, nothing has changed since yesterday. The key technical levels within the 1.3172 - 1.2802 established range, starting from the top are 1.3172, 1.3140, 1.3060/80, 1.3020, 1.2990, 1.2940/50, 1.2920, 1.2890, 1.2840, 1.2825 and 1.2800. As I write, price is ranging between the 1.2920 support area and the 1.2940/50 resistance area.

As always, be well and trade safe.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids/tech supp 1.2920/30, sell stops through 1.2915 ahead of bids 1.2900/10 (barrier 1.2900). Offers 1.2970/80 and 1.3000/20 (supranational, SNB and sovereign) possible buy stops above through 1.3025 ahead of congestion area 1.3050/70.

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT:

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2910, 1.3000, 1.3075 (500 mil)

E/U H1:
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E/U Weekly:
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,247
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:44am Oct 26, 2012 1:44am
Quoting cdndollar
Add stop sell 103.98..

Add GBPUSD short 1.6137..
103.98 stop sell 103.98 TP for 78 pips.. 104.23 short stop @+28 pips..

GBPUSD shorts stops @+1 pips.. expect the eccentric lagger to close the gap with cousin Euro as EURGBP pause with side to down PA before downside acceleration..

Quoting CurrencyMan
Mental characteristics: Discipline
Have you ever wondered why few win and most don’t, when these days every trader has access to the same tools, the same research, same charts, same methods that work?
....
  • #59,248
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:54am Oct 26, 2012 1:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all,

.... While Q-Eternity will most likely prevent a market crash similar to the one in 2008 (which is probably what Benny had in mind anyway), I just cannot see how the equity indices are supposed to break above the 2007 highs when the underlying fundamentals are worse now than then.....

.... As such, I now expect to see the continuation of a correction downwards as investors become more risk averse.
Because in stocks you buy future perceived potential value not present value... my 2 cents.

I agree with a leg down but more via profit taking rather than risk aversion...Risk has fade a lot since September, there is a bit of uncertainty left with when Spain will take the bailout and the obvious very short term US election factor especially via the fiscal cliff and automatic spending cuts and tax rises for next year. However I am 99.9% convince they will address the issue as soon as the US elects a new president (is irrelevant who ...they both will calm the bastards before January guarantee).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #59,249
  • Oct 26, 2012 2:14am Oct 26, 2012 2:14am
Quoting sisse
Because in stocks you buy future perceived potential value not present value... my 2 cents.

I agree with a leg down but more via profit taking rather than risk aversion...Risk has fade a lot since September, there is a bit of uncertainty left with when Spain will take the bailout and the obvious very short term US election factor especially via the fiscal cliff and automatic spending cuts and tax rises for next year. However I am 99.9% convince they will address the issue as soon as the US elects a new president (is irrelevant who ...they both...
Thanks for your feedback Sisse. As usual you are correct. Perhaps I should have written "I just cannot see how the equity indices are supposed to break above the 2007 highs when the mid term outlook is lower now than it was then"

I also am extremely certain that the US fiscal cliff issue will be resolved. Unfortunate to say though that I do not have the same confidence in Europe to properly address the Spanish issue if I am to use Greece as an example. Furthermore, I see the same fate for Italy... and perhaps France quite soon.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,250
  • Oct 26, 2012 2:26am Oct 26, 2012 2:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks for your feedback Sisse. As usual you are correct. Perhaps I should have written "I just cannot see how the equity indices are supposed to break above the 2007 highs when the mid term outlook is lower now than it was then"
Well despite the semantics, you will agree with me that the worst has passed and the 2008 recession is over (that doesn't mean we are booming or anything).

There are lot of sectors that got hammered as collateral damage of the crisis and some others that suffered a lot when consumer went "out of business" and stop spending on fear (savings) and/or economic problems (losing jobs, mortgages etc) so there has been quite a few interesting opportunities to ride that are irrelevant of QE's or etc ...those are just sound investment opportunities based on pure supply and demand and price valuation.

My point is that we are back to "normal" times in the markets. We are not any longer in a one giant wave panic/fear/tsunami wave down that takes everything in its way. Now is better to analyze sector and specific opportunities (like usual) instead of putting everything in one bag. So for example do you think "US mid term outlook is lower now than it was then" in the car industry? housing? or retail food? what about shale gas? ...do you really think is lower in these sectors? .....I am sure you get my point....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #59,251
  • Oct 26, 2012 2:43am Oct 26, 2012 2:43am
Quoting sisse
Well despite the semantics, you will agree with me that the worst has passed and the 2008 recession is over (that doesn't mean we are booming or anything).

There are lot of sectors that got hammered as collateral damage of the crisis and some others that suffered a lot when consumer went "out of business" and stop spending on fear (savings) and/or economic problems (losing jobs, mortgages etc) so there has been quite a few interesting opportunities to ride that are irrelevant of QE's or etc ...those are just sound investment opportunities...
Yes absolutely. Point well taken. However, my comments were more about, as you say "everything in one bag".

Anyway, as I mentioned in my original post, I do expect the US to lead the economic recovery, and from an FX perspective, that should ultimately be USD positive as the Fed will be forced to pull back on its ultra accommodative monetary policy and thereby narrow the rate differential back in favor of the USD.... always assuming of course that Asia lags way behind and Europe drags itself through the ditch.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,252
  • Oct 26, 2012 3:37am Oct 26, 2012 3:37am
Dead market - no definitive movement as yet. Hope something get going soon. Hope the bearish sentiment on the euro pairs prevail.
  • #59,253
  • Oct 26, 2012 3:38am Oct 26, 2012 3:38am
Some better news for € - from that perma-bear in the DT

There was some good news in the ECB data. While the eurozone core is sliding into a deeper downturn, the periphery is stabilizing and Italy’s monetary figures are springing back to life.
Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said the current 270 basis point spread in 10-year yields between Italy and France can no longer be justified, an argument also made by HSBC.
Italy will have a large primary budget surplus next year. Most of the country’s belt-tightening will be out of the way by mid-2013. It has already done much of the hard work that lies ahead in France. "Italy is a much better credit than people realize," said Andrew Roberts from RBS.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #59,254
  • Oct 26, 2012 3:51am Oct 26, 2012 3:51am
Quoting Unknownpips
Dead market - no definitive movement as yet. Hope something get going soon. Hope the bearish sentiment on the euro pairs prevail.
This market is not going to move much until the US GDP figure is released in a few hours (12:30 GMT)

Until then, I expect the range to be confined to 1.2920-1.2950

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,255
  • Oct 26, 2012 4:03am Oct 26, 2012 4:03am
USDX staying clearly above 80.00 so far

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,256
  • Oct 26, 2012 4:16am Oct 26, 2012 4:16am
Took a little buy position this morning at 1.2930 with a target of 1.2950... Happily reached it... Might took it too early but there is no point risking before such important news.

Be safe
  • #59,257
  • Oct 26, 2012 4:20am Oct 26, 2012 4:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
This market is not going to move much until the US GDP figure is released in a few hours (12:30 GMT)

Until then, I expect the range to be confined to 1.2920-1.2950

Attachment
i hope to see a spike into 2990 (futures) to sell i took off half my contracts last night before bed.

want a weak euro? vote romney!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #59,258
  • Oct 26, 2012 4:24am Oct 26, 2012 4:24am
Quoting redteamgo
i hope to see a spike into 2990 (futures) to sell i took off half my contracts last night before bed.

want a weak euro? vote romney!
I see a possibility of a technical spike up to the 2975 area... and then down from there to trip the stops below 2915

2968 is the 50% fibo from yesterday's high... 2980 is the 61.8
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,259
  • Oct 26, 2012 4:30am Oct 26, 2012 4:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
I see a possibility of a technical spike up to 2975... and then down from there to trip the stops below 2915
youre talking cash prices, right? not sure. just see a relative, technical channel range upside capped by no more than 2990. ill play it as it falls or not at all.

there will be another trade next week, that is for sure !

have you been watching the 10y/30y, PT? there is some REALLY interesting risk correlated consolidation going on capped by the 38.2 from Jul 25, 2012 to current daily low. the moves are inversely linked to eur and risk assets. normally when equities sell off 500pts, 30y jumps quite a bit.... but its not.... i am building shorts about 1.48xx. 30y sell off -> $30 per tick -> house of gold
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #59,260
  • Oct 26, 2012 4:33am Oct 26, 2012 4:33am
Quoting redteamgo
youre talking cash prices, right? not sure. just see a relative, technical channel range upside capped by no more than 2990. ill play it as it falls or not at all.

there will be another trade next week, that is for sure !

have you been watching the 10y/30y, PT? there is some REALLY interesting risk correlated consolidation going on capped by the 38.2 from Jul 25, 2012 to current daily low. the moves are inversely linked to eur and risk assets. normally when equities sell off 500pts, 30y jumps quite a bit.... but its not.... i am building...
Nice setup Red. I'm sure it will pay off. It's not often you see such divergences in correlation, but when you do, it's a perfect RR trade.

PS: Yes, I'm talking spot... not futures.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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