G/M,
0930am London sees the release of Uk's Q3 GDP prelim which in recent times has been derided as an all too in-accurate guide to economic activity partly because of the way it is calculated and partly because many argue it's definition is too narrow. Whatever the case the Uk is always the 1st of the major westerm economies to publish it's preliminary estimate on about 1/2 of the data it finalises the number on sometime after the prelim release.
The Q2 retraction was revised from -0.7% to -0.4% and with forecasts suggesting anything from 0.5% expansion/growth and above the immediate knee-jerk (+?) market reaction re Gbp may be as follows given the 3 scenarios outlined below;
0.2%o or below - this release alwayys has the potential to dissapoint and any small positive number or worse zero or below could see some knee-jerk (+?) £ selling. The lower the print the greater the chances of a strong reaction and the greater the chances of a sustained reaction (barring the pullbacks.) for howsoever long.
0.3 - 0.4% a greater chance of some knee-jerk £ buying than selling but this is more likely at a 0.4% print, - more difficult to say re a 0.3% actual number - here again there is the potential for dissapointment ?
0.5% and higher will most likely see some knee-jerk £ buying and the higher the print the greater the chances of a strong reaction and the greater the chances that thhe knee-jerk reaction will be sustained (barring the pullbacks) for howsoever long.
I will look to get involved on any momentum plays that develop and/or look for the classic buy the 1st lo/sell the 1st pullback -or conversely- the classic sell the 1st hi/buy the 1st pullback data/news reaction - should hi-probability lo-risk opportunities present themselves on the lower t/f's consistent with my own trading edge - this more likely on a strong market reaction either way.
From a trader's point of view lets hope for -0.2% or +0.8% then !
G/L
0930am London sees the release of Uk's Q3 GDP prelim which in recent times has been derided as an all too in-accurate guide to economic activity partly because of the way it is calculated and partly because many argue it's definition is too narrow. Whatever the case the Uk is always the 1st of the major westerm economies to publish it's preliminary estimate on about 1/2 of the data it finalises the number on sometime after the prelim release.
The Q2 retraction was revised from -0.7% to -0.4% and with forecasts suggesting anything from 0.5% expansion/growth and above the immediate knee-jerk (+?) market reaction re Gbp may be as follows given the 3 scenarios outlined below;
0.2%o or below - this release alwayys has the potential to dissapoint and any small positive number or worse zero or below could see some knee-jerk (+?) £ selling. The lower the print the greater the chances of a strong reaction and the greater the chances of a sustained reaction (barring the pullbacks.) for howsoever long.
0.3 - 0.4% a greater chance of some knee-jerk £ buying than selling but this is more likely at a 0.4% print, - more difficult to say re a 0.3% actual number - here again there is the potential for dissapointment ?
0.5% and higher will most likely see some knee-jerk £ buying and the higher the print the greater the chances of a strong reaction and the greater the chances that thhe knee-jerk reaction will be sustained (barring the pullbacks) for howsoever long.
I will look to get involved on any momentum plays that develop and/or look for the classic buy the 1st lo/sell the 1st pullback -or conversely- the classic sell the 1st hi/buy the 1st pullback data/news reaction - should hi-probability lo-risk opportunities present themselves on the lower t/f's consistent with my own trading edge - this more likely on a strong market reaction either way.
From a trader's point of view lets hope for -0.2% or +0.8% then !
G/L
ex member
welldone nice analysis
(I am wondering how much does it cost 
