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  • #11,101
  • Oct 20, 2012 7:14pm Oct 20, 2012 7:14pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Could you share your insight based on your chart?
I think he's saying that there's a triangle formation of a sort - up channel meeting the down channel - fall to 1.027 may lead the price to bounce to the up channel and then whichever channel gets broken is where the price will continue.
  • #11,102
  • Oct 20, 2012 7:15pm Oct 20, 2012 7:15pm
After Monday, This may happen .......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: THE END.JPG Size: 69 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,103
  • Oct 20, 2012 7:21pm Oct 20, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting maximmm
I think he's saying that there's a triangle formation of a sort - up channel meeting the down channel - fall to 1.027 may lead the price to bounce to the up channel and then whichever channel gets broken is where the price will continue.
I am afraid that 1.027 is not going to hold the falling Aussie. The lower support at 1.018x may provide a hard landing support.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1350785167
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,104
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:30pm Oct 20, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Could you share your insight based on your chart?
hello DB,based on chart h4 price still in downtrend,but im more caution at minnor channel and wait for next move,,market still slow at least for me.
  • #11,105
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:36pm Oct 20, 2012 9:36pm
EUR/USD is going to gap down. Currently at 1.2978. Roughly 40 pip gap down from Friday's close.

AUD/USD should also gap down as well which means bullish after opening.


Case Study on Forex Gaps

The study on gaps in the forex market was conducted between 2002 and 2010, and examined over 25 currency pairs. The following table shows the best gap performers amid the 25 currency pairs.

Currency Pair % Forex Gaps Filled The Same Day
GBP/CAD 88,60%
EUR/CAD 82,70%
EUR/AUD 81,60%
GBP/CHF 78,75%
USD/CHF 77,71%
AUD/JPY 74,35%
GBP/USD 72,18%
EUR/USD 66,15%

http://www.fxtsp.com/trading-strategies/fundamental-strategies/1270-forex-gap-trading-strategy-.html
  • #11,106
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:41pm Oct 20, 2012 9:41pm
Quoting maximmm
I think he's saying that there's a triangle formation of a sort - up channel meeting the down channel - fall to 1.027 may lead the price to bounce to the up channel and then whichever channel gets broken is where the price will continue.
Spot on.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #11,107
  • Edited 9:59pm Oct 20, 2012 9:48pm | Edited 9:59pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
EUR/USD is going to gap down. Currently at 1.2978. Roughly 40 pip gap down from Friday's close.

AUD/USD should also gap down as well which means bullish after opening.


Case Study on Forex Gaps

The study on gaps in the forex market was conducted between 2002 and 2010, and examined over 25 currency pairs. The following table shows the best gap performers amid the 25 currency pairs.

Currency Pair % Forex Gaps Filled The Same Day
GBP/CAD 88,60%
EUR/CAD 82,70%
EUR/AUD 81,60%
GBP/CHF 78,75%
USD/CHF...
"AUD/USD should also gap down as well which means bullish after opening."

This could be the scenario on Sunday open. But, the bullish move may not last for too long IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,108
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:49pm Oct 20, 2012 9:49pm
Quoting aqeelaputra
hello DB,based on chart h4 price still in downtrend,but im more caution at minnor channel and wait for next move,,market still slow at least for me.
This is what I see .....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BEAR'S SEAT.JPG Size: 83 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,109
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:54pm Oct 20, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting 100PipsADay

AUD/USD should also gap down as well which means bullish after opening.
This was what I thought on 10/19. So we are seeing the same picture.

Quoting DaddyBear
After the market closed, the pattern became clear. The Aussie will move down then move up when market opens on Sunday night. Monday could be a Doji day. After that the Aussie shall be heading to 1.01xx. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,110
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:57pm Oct 20, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is what I see .....
When the Bull breaks the Bear's tight rope, He will fly to the Moon.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1350794976
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,111
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:02pm Oct 20, 2012 10:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
When the Bull breaks the Bear's tight rope, He will fly to the Moon.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1350794976
The question is when not if this scenario will become the fact.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,112
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:08pm Oct 20, 2012 10:08pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The question is when not if this scenario will become the fact.
I sincerely invite the bulls to post opposite views for everyone to evaluate the Aussie's next or future moves. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,113
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:10pm Oct 20, 2012 10:10pm
au in a bulish move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #11,114
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:16pm Oct 20, 2012 10:16pm
Quoting bonus76
au in a bulish move
Actually, the Aussie did not touch LTL Friday. This implied that the bulls were still fighting on. This was the reason I closed the short positions at 1.032xx Friday. I expect she moves up to 1.037x on Monday. But, can she break that level?
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,115
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:17pm Oct 20, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Actually, the Aussie did not touch LTL Friday. This implied that the bulls were still fighting on. This was the reason I closed the short positions at 1.032xx Friday. I expect she moves up to 1.037x on Monday. But, can she break that level?
Same here. One more move up before going down hard. Hopefully will go to 1.0443 so i can short it hard
  • #11,116
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:18pm Oct 20, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting bonus76
Same here. One more move up before going down hard. Hopefully will go to 1.0443 so i can short it hard
I doubt she can move up that far. Let's see what happens Monday and get ready to short.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,117
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:20pm Oct 20, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I doubt she can move up that far. Let's see what happens Monday and get ready to short.
CPI data on Wednesday. If comes negative au will be on free fall
  • #11,118
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:21pm Oct 20, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I doubt she can move up that far. Let's see what happens Monday and get ready to short.
In next two days, the Aussie may be in a range-bound moves before heading south later. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,119
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:24pm Oct 20, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting bonus76
CPI data on Wednesday. If comes negative au will be on free fall
Did you mean CPI is going to be higher than the forecast? This will match my pattern projection. I do expect a sizable move after Monday if not a free fall.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,120
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:26pm Oct 20, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Did you mean CPI is going to be higher than the forecast? This will match my pattern projection. I do expect a sizable move after Monday if not a free fall.
If the Aussie moves up to the 1.03 area then drops to 1.01xx, it would be a 150 to 200 pips bear run.
daddybearforex. com
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