DislikedWell, Fibonacci says that 1.03 completes 0.618 retractment for the 3 wave pattern from 1.015 to 1.04 -Ignored
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DislikedWell, Fibonacci says that 1.03 completes 0.618 retractment for the 3 wave pattern from 1.015 to 1.04 -Ignored
Dislikederr.... there's another way to count waves -
It's possible that we have only seen two waves in that time period - which calls for the next - last wave higher prior to fall. In fact, that would make more sense.
Although I do see Aud touch 1.03 first this Sunday, prior to the start of the next wave.
By the way, I wouldn't put my money on this forecast - especially given my overall bearish view of AUD.Ignored
DislikedI use simple approach to trading that is to keep neutral at all times, and open up to 2 possibilities at all times. Especially on aud/usd, it respect support/resistance and ABCD quite well.
I usually pick a trade when it's outside of a tight box zone of support/resistance which made it range bound. Being range bound, price usually have a tight consolidation, sometime it looks bullish after a breakout phase, sometime it look like a reversal, so i am least likely to pick a trade while price is trapped in a consolidation box.
It's important...Ignored
DislikedThis a min 15 chart, i always applied my own rules of 1,2,3 on support resistance aka offers/bids to calculate the probability. I don't sell when its the highest i pick the position only on 23.6 or 61.8 on both ways with a tighter stop loss than most people, as i don't believe in marrying a trade. If i get lucky, my winners get to ride on a breakout, if i am not i looking to dump it off or trail it out if its within a consolidation phase which we are approaching. Check out the MACD point of 0 and -0 at the point of Rule 1,2 3 or support/ resistance...Ignored
DislikedAfter the market closed, the pattern became clear. The Aussie will move down then move up when market opens on Sunday night. Monday could be a Doji day. After that the Aussie shall be heading to 1.01xx. IMOIgnored
Dislikedtake a look at the circle esclipe, which is the consolidation phase area i am talking about where its likely to trap alot of traders in this region of passby and those without stop loss may be treading underwater for another 100-300 pips if the breakout happens against the trader, most of the time consolidation happens on monday and tuesday due to lower volatility before price wants to moveIgnored
DislikedYou could well be right. I'm not betting a house on NZD moving up a 100 pips prior to breakdown -
Obviously the safest play is to wait for the price to break the weekly uptrend line and only then short it - or the opposite, for the price to break the monthly downtrend line (after all, we are looking at the collision of these two) and then go long. I may go long with NZD once it drops 30 pips on Sunday and put a stop loss at 20 pips - and set up sell orders below, if the price does break down the channel.
As for AUD - things are a lot less...Ignored
Dislikederr.... there's another way to count waves -
It's possible that we have only seen two waves in that time period - which calls for the next - last wave higher prior to fall. In fact, that would make more sense.
Although I do see Aud touch 1.03 first this Sunday, prior to the start of the next wave.
By the way, I wouldn't put my money on this forecast - especially given my overall bearish view of AUD.Ignored
DislikedIMO, the Aussie may not touch 1.03 first this coming Sunday. The after hour rate was close to 1.034xx. In fact, I expect it to retest 1.0370 - 1.0380 zone Monday before heading south.Ignored
DislikedThe daily chart has a Doji conformed today. I'd say the Bears have upper hand until another Doji appears at the "bottom".Ignored
Disliked1.0322 support zone was tested a few times Friday afternoon. The Aussie was bounced off from there. When it comes down again, 1.0322 zone will be a major battleground, a consolidation zone.Ignored
DislikedAs for AUD - things are a lot less clear, in my opinion - making setting up stop loss that much more difficult.Ignored
DislikedThe reason I see the Aussie moves down next week is based on EWP. The wave C was incomplete because it was too simple and too short. The coming down move will make the wave C a complex and complete pattern. IMOIgnored
DislikedWhile a lot of people trading multiple pairs at the same time, I prefer to trade the Aussie only. I live with the Aussie every hour except when I was sleeping. I am gradually in sync with this baby even sometimes it's hard to read her mind.
There are pros and cons of trading one pair only. But, I believe what I am doing will help me master this pair sooner or later.Ignored
DislikedThe positive side of trading a focus pair is that is a lot easier to go the same direction of picking an entry compared to trading many pairs against the same currency ; for eg, aud/usd, eur/usd, gbp/usd against the usd or even eur/aud and gbp/aud. It's easier to get confuse to go long or short each time, and all telling different stories and making the charts messed up with many pairs/timeframe look even worst.
over the past 3 years, aud/usd is actually safer to trade compared to eur/usd or even gbp/usd as its unlikely to behave erratically to...Ignored
DislikedI disagree with that statement -
Most pairs are in the triangle formation right now on weekly chart - thus equally easy to trade in that sense.
As for currencies making 1000 pip moves without retrace - AUD made a 3000 pip move in 2009 - with a retrace following only after the said move and not in-between.
An argument can be made that USDCAD is a much safer currency to trade in that sense - though it is also a pair that's nearly impossible to chart since it seldom respects drawn trendlines.
Otherwise, given the weekly triangle formations,...Ignored