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  • #11,061
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:16pm Oct 19, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting maximmm
Well, Fibonacci says that 1.03 completes 0.618 retractment for the 3 wave pattern from 1.015 to 1.04 -
Which 3 wave pattern were you talking about?
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,062
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:31pm Oct 19, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Which 3 wave pattern were you talking about?

One from 10/07 to 10/18 (dates)
  • #11,063
  • Edited 5:02pm Oct 19, 2012 4:39pm | Edited 5:02pm
err.... there's another way to count waves -
It's possible that we have only seen two waves in that time period - which calls for the next - last wave higher prior to fall. In fact, that would make more sense.

Although I do see Aud touch 1.03 first this Sunday, prior to the start of the next wave.
By the way, I wouldn't put my money on this forecast - especially given my overall bearish view of AUD.
  • #11,064
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:05pm Oct 19, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting maximmm
err.... there's another way to count waves -
It's possible that we have only seen two waves in that time period - which calls for the next - last wave higher prior to fall. In fact, that would make more sense.

Although I do see Aud touch 1.03 first this Sunday, prior to the start of the next wave.
By the way, I wouldn't put my money on this forecast - especially given my overall bearish view of AUD.
After the market closed, the pattern became clear. The Aussie will move down then move up when market opens on Sunday night. Monday could be a Doji day. After that the Aussie shall be heading to 1.01xx. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,065
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:41pm Oct 19, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting 5percent
I use simple approach to trading that is to keep neutral at all times, and open up to 2 possibilities at all times. Especially on aud/usd, it respect support/resistance and ABCD quite well.

I usually pick a trade when it's outside of a tight box zone of support/resistance which made it range bound. Being range bound, price usually have a tight consolidation, sometime it looks bullish after a breakout phase, sometime it look like a reversal, so i am least likely to pick a trade while price is trapped in a consolidation box.

It's important...
This a min 15 chart, i always applied my own rules of 1,2,3 on support resistance aka offers/bids to calculate the probability. I don't sell when its the highest i pick the position only on 23.6 or 61.8 on both ways with a tighter stop loss than most people, as i don't believe in marrying a trade. If i get lucky, my winners get to ride on a breakout, if i am not i looking to dump it off or trail it out if its within a consolidation phase which we are approaching. Check out the MACD point of 0 and -0 at the point of Rule 1,2 3 or support/ resistance or fib no.

With respect, just sharing my trade's decision basis i may not be so proficient on so many technical stuff, keeping it plain simple, hope this will help some people of how to look at price instead of always jumping into the market because they have no position open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: min 15.png Size: 62 KB
  • #11,066
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:47pm Oct 19, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting 5percent
This a min 15 chart, i always applied my own rules of 1,2,3 on support resistance aka offers/bids to calculate the probability. I don't sell when its the highest i pick the position only on 23.6 or 61.8 on both ways with a tighter stop loss than most people, as i don't believe in marrying a trade. If i get lucky, my winners get to ride on a breakout, if i am not i looking to dump it off or trail it out if its within a consolidation phase which we are approaching. Check out the MACD point of 0 and -0 at the point of Rule 1,2 3 or support/ resistance...
take a look at the circle esclipe, which is the consolidation phase area i am talking about where its likely to trap alot of traders in this region of passby and those without stop loss may be treading underwater for another 100-300 pips if the breakout happens against the trader, most of the time consolidation happens on monday and tuesday due to lower volatility before price wants to move
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  • #11,067
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:11am Oct 20, 2012 12:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
After the market closed, the pattern became clear. The Aussie will move down then move up when market opens on Sunday night. Monday could be a Doji day. After that the Aussie shall be heading to 1.01xx. IMO
You could well be right. I'm not betting a house on NZD moving up a 100 pips prior to breakdown -
Obviously the safest play is to wait for the price to break the weekly uptrend line and only then short it - or the opposite, for the price to break the monthly downtrend line (after all, we are looking at the collision of these two) and then go long. I may go long with NZD once it drops 30 pips on Sunday and put a stop loss at 20 pips - and set up sell orders below, if the price does break down the channel.

As for AUD - things are a lot less clear, in my opinion - making setting up stop loss that much more difficult.

I'll keep an eye on AUD out of interest, though will concentrate on NZD due to clarity.

Good luck next week -
  • #11,068
  • Edited 12:24am Oct 20, 2012 12:11am | Edited 12:24am
Quoting 5percent
take a look at the circle esclipe, which is the consolidation phase area i am talking about where its likely to trap alot of traders in this region of passby and those without stop loss may be treading underwater for another 100-300 pips if the breakout happens against the trader, most of the time consolidation happens on monday and tuesday due to lower volatility before price wants to move
I am not sure if Monday and Tuesday have lower volatility, but I do know btw 12 PM and 2 PM EST, market is slow. Also, btw 5 PM and 7 PM EST, the liquidity is low. During these periods, consolidations may occur.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,069
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:17am Oct 20, 2012 12:17am
Quoting maximmm
You could well be right. I'm not betting a house on NZD moving up a 100 pips prior to breakdown -
Obviously the safest play is to wait for the price to break the weekly uptrend line and only then short it - or the opposite, for the price to break the monthly downtrend line (after all, we are looking at the collision of these two) and then go long. I may go long with NZD once it drops 30 pips on Sunday and put a stop loss at 20 pips - and set up sell orders below, if the price does break down the channel.

As for AUD - things are a lot less...
My view is that when it's crystal clear, it's the time of getting trouble. There are always unexpected twists in the market when it is unfolding.

I don't trade NZD because the low liquidity even it may be easier to trade.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,070
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:23am Oct 20, 2012 12:23am
Quoting maximmm
err.... there's another way to count waves -
It's possible that we have only seen two waves in that time period - which calls for the next - last wave higher prior to fall. In fact, that would make more sense.

Although I do see Aud touch 1.03 first this Sunday, prior to the start of the next wave.
By the way, I wouldn't put my money on this forecast - especially given my overall bearish view of AUD.
IMO, the Aussie may not touch 1.03 first this coming Sunday. The after hour rate was close to 1.034xx. In fact, I expect it to retest 1.0370 - 1.0380 zone Monday before heading south.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,071
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:29am Oct 20, 2012 12:29am
Quoting DaddyBear
IMO, the Aussie may not touch 1.03 first this coming Sunday. The after hour rate was close to 1.034xx. In fact, I expect it to retest 1.0370 - 1.0380 zone Monday before heading south.
Next week, there may be more red candles than green ones. The move could be sizable. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,072
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:36am Oct 20, 2012 12:36am
1.0322 support zone was tested a few times Friday afternoon. The Aussie was bounced off from there. When it comes down again, 1.0322 zone will be a major battleground, a consolidation zone.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,073
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:41am Oct 20, 2012 12:41am
Quoting DaddyBear
The daily chart has a Doji conformed today. I'd say the Bears have upper hand until another Doji appears at the "bottom".
The reason I see the Aussie moves down next week is based on EWP. The wave C was incomplete because it was too simple and too short. The coming down move will make the wave C a complex and complete pattern. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,074
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:43am Oct 20, 2012 12:43am
Quoting DaddyBear
1.0322 support zone was tested a few times Friday afternoon. The Aussie was bounced off from there. When it comes down again, 1.0322 zone will be a major battleground, a consolidation zone.
Based on my previous post, this pending consolidation may occur during the periods btw 12 PM and 2 PM or btw 5 PM and 7 PM Monday. My time zone is EST.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,075
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:56am Oct 20, 2012 12:56am
While a lot of people trading multiple pairs at the same time, I prefer to trade the Aussie only. I live with the Aussie every hour except when I was sleeping. I am gradually in sync with this baby even sometimes it's hard to read her mind.

There are pros and cons of trading one pair only. But, I believe what I am doing will help me master this pair sooner or later.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,076
  • Oct 20, 2012 1:13am Oct 20, 2012 1:13am
Quoting maximmm
As for AUD - things are a lot less clear, in my opinion - making setting up stop loss that much more difficult.
As to the issue of a lot less clear, I think the markets are always unclear. Otherwise, we are all in the paradise now.

The nature of such unclear future moves makes the trading more challenging and more "fun". It would take a master to unlock this nature. But, I like to decipher such nature. It makes my brain very sharp. I realized more and more during the trading because I saw something behind this unclear surface.

The purpose of such unclear nature is to let someone to discover the hidden holy grail IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,077
  • Oct 20, 2012 2:26am Oct 20, 2012 2:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
The reason I see the Aussie moves down next week is based on EWP. The wave C was incomplete because it was too simple and too short. The coming down move will make the wave C a complex and complete pattern. IMO
What wave C? Put chart
  • #11,078
  • Oct 20, 2012 3:21am Oct 20, 2012 3:21am
Quoting DaddyBear
While a lot of people trading multiple pairs at the same time, I prefer to trade the Aussie only. I live with the Aussie every hour except when I was sleeping. I am gradually in sync with this baby even sometimes it's hard to read her mind.

There are pros and cons of trading one pair only. But, I believe what I am doing will help me master this pair sooner or later.
The positive side of trading a focus pair is that is a lot easier to go the same direction of picking an entry compared to trading many pairs against the same currency ; for eg, aud/usd, eur/usd, gbp/usd against the usd or even eur/aud and gbp/aud. It's easier to get confuse to go long or short each time, and all telling different stories and making the charts messed up with many pairs/timeframe look even worst.

over the past 3 years, aud/usd is actually safer to trade compared to eur/usd or even gbp/usd as its unlikely to behave erratically to move 1000-2000 pips up/down without retracement.
  • #11,079
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:09am Oct 20, 2012 10:09am
Quoting 5percent
The positive side of trading a focus pair is that is a lot easier to go the same direction of picking an entry compared to trading many pairs against the same currency ; for eg, aud/usd, eur/usd, gbp/usd against the usd or even eur/aud and gbp/aud. It's easier to get confuse to go long or short each time, and all telling different stories and making the charts messed up with many pairs/timeframe look even worst.

over the past 3 years, aud/usd is actually safer to trade compared to eur/usd or even gbp/usd as its unlikely to behave erratically to...
I disagree with that statement -
Most pairs are in the triangle formation right now on weekly chart - thus equally easy to trade in that sense.
As for currencies making 1000 pip moves without retrace - AUD made a 3000 pip move in 2009 - with a retrace following only after the said move and not in-between.

An argument can be made that USDCAD is a much safer currency to trade in that sense - though it is also a pair that's nearly impossible to chart since it seldom respects drawn trendlines.

Otherwise, given the weekly triangle formations, I think every currency will be easy to trade (for a brief moment) once they exit the triangles (if you trade in the direction of the breakout).
  • #11,080
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:16am Oct 20, 2012 10:16am
Quoting maximmm
I disagree with that statement -
Most pairs are in the triangle formation right now on weekly chart - thus equally easy to trade in that sense.
As for currencies making 1000 pip moves without retrace - AUD made a 3000 pip move in 2009 - with a retrace following only after the said move and not in-between.

An argument can be made that USDCAD is a much safer currency to trade in that sense - though it is also a pair that's nearly impossible to chart since it seldom respects drawn trendlines.

Otherwise, given the weekly triangle formations,...
like i said over the past 3 years, i do know of the pitfall of aud during that time.

Aud has been in a range of 0.92-1.08-1.1, which is quite healthy compared to many other pairs. Most of the time it has been in 0.95-1.0 then 1.01-1.07.
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