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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #11,081
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:27am Oct 20, 2012 10:27am
Quoting 5percent
like i said over the past 3 years, i do know of the pitfall of aud during that time.

Aud has been in a range of 0.92-1.08-1.1, which is quite healthy compared to many other pairs. Most of the time it has been in 0.95-1.0 then 1.01-1.07.
Thats it.
forexpillariscipline & patience Trader
  • #11,082
  • Oct 20, 2012 11:40am Oct 20, 2012 11:40am
Quoting 5percent
like i said over the past 3 years, i do know of the pitfall of aud during that time.

Aud has been in a range of 0.92-1.08-1.1, which is quite healthy compared to many other pairs. Most of the time it has been in 0.95-1.0 then 1.01-1.07.
Hence the triangle formation -

Nowhere is it more clear than in the GBPUSD pair -

AudUSD has started its triangle formation only in 2011 - so when talking about the past 3 years, GBPUSD is a pair that provides by far more clarity/range, given that it has been in the triangle formation from 2009.

EurUSD is something else - if looking from 2009, one can argue that euro actually in the downtrend formation - thus the next move should move it to 1.08 - though if looking from 2006 - one can argue that we are seeing a major triangle formation, which would lead Euro to go to 1.40 first.


In any case, for the moment, I'd say it's hard to predict which side of the triangle each pair will break. We'll see - in the meantime - let's trade the existing triangles ^^
  • #11,083
  • Oct 20, 2012 3:01pm Oct 20, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
What wave C? Put chart
This daily chart shows the EW patterns including wave C.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1349317469
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,084
  • Oct 20, 2012 3:07pm Oct 20, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This daily chart shows the EW patterns including wave C.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1349317469
I take it you are not a big believer in triangle formations (3 touches on each side prior to breakout)? I find that EWP does not work while the price is within the triangle formations - making trading rather challenging- but that's my brief experience with such things.
  • #11,085
  • Oct 20, 2012 3:24pm Oct 20, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting maximmm
I disagree with that statement -
Most pairs are in the triangle formation right now on weekly chart - thus equally easy to trade in that sense.
As for currencies making 1000 pip moves without retrace - AUD made a 3000 pip move in 2009 - with a retrace following only after the said move and not in-between.

An argument can be made that USDCAD is a much safer currency to trade in that sense - though it is also a pair that's nearly impossible to chart since it seldom respects drawn trendlines.

Otherwise, given the weekly triangle formations,...
Trading multiple pairs or just one pair is a personal decision. If you feel comfortable to trade multiple pairs, just stick to your choice.

Trading the Aussie only makes me very focus on this pair. I used to trade multiple pairs. Sometimes I was confused when switching the charts.

I am intended to be specialized in the Aussie trading and making lot of green pips from such a "niche market".
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,086
  • Oct 20, 2012 3:29pm Oct 20, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting maximmm
I take it you are not a big believer in triangle formations (3 touches on each side prior to breakout)? I find that EWP does not work while the price is within the triangle formations - making trading rather challenging- but that's my brief experience with such things.
I thought it was a big triangle before but I see something different now. EWP works in any conditions whether it's a weekly or a M1 chart. As mentioned before, EWP is the law of the market but a lot of people running away from this holy grail.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,087
  • Oct 20, 2012 4:04pm Oct 20, 2012 4:04pm
Some people are bullish on the Aussie next week. Although I am bullish, it is for the weekly not for the daily next week.

Those people fail to see the turning of the "sub-trend" like this smart Bear did.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342530438
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,088
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:04pm Oct 20, 2012 8:04pm
The Aussie's Next moves are going to be the puzzles for the Bulls during next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #11,089
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:26pm Oct 20, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The Aussie's Next moves are going to be the puzzles for the Bulls during next week.
One of the reasons I did not mention before is that the bounce off on 10/8 was not a Doji or a star. All other reversal points were such candles.

What does this imply? My view is that it was not a reversal but a retracement. A break of the down move. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,090
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:35pm Oct 20, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting DaddyBear
One of the reasons I did not mention before is that the bounce off on 10/8 was not a Doji or a star. All other reversal points were such candles.

What does this imply? My view is that it was not a reversal but a retracement. A break of the down move. IMO
Now, we have seen a confirmed Doji occurred on 10/18 followed by a red candle. Some people think the H4 LTL may provide strong support but the pattern says otherwise. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,091
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:43pm Oct 20, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The Aussie's Next moves are going to be the puzzles for the Bulls during next week.
The Bull is questioning .........
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daddybearforex. com
  • #11,092
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:46pm Oct 20, 2012 8:46pm
We'll see. For now, I'll play NZD - it has an interest rate decision coming up - that could lead to quite a bit of volatility - maybe.

As far as trendlines are concerned - AUD's up trendline stands at 1.027 or so - so a move down to that level is possible - and a breach is certainly bearish. 1.03 is more of a fibonacci level, rather than that of a trendline.
  • #11,093
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:49pm Oct 20, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The Bull is questioning .........
DB is not very happy .......

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1344315376
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,094
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:53pm Oct 20, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting maximmm
We'll see. For now, I'll play NZD - it has an interest rate decision coming up - that could lead to quite a bit of volatility - maybe.

As far as trendlines are concerned - AUD's up trendline stands at 1.027 or so - so a move down to that level is possible - and a breach is certainly bearish. 1.03 is more of a fibonacci level, rather than that of a trendline.
If you are looking for volatility, why not try GBPJPY? The pair has plenty of volatility all the time.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,095
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:57pm Oct 20, 2012 8:57pm
Quoting DaddyBear
If you are looking for volatility, why not try GBPJPY? The pair has plenty of volatility all the time.

Haha, that or eurjpy - I agree -
I'm waiting for eurjpy to retest the broken 4 year trend line - that may happen in.... a month or two
Or maybe even in a couple of days
  • #11,096
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:03pm Oct 20, 2012 9:03pm
It really does not matter who is right or wrong. The exchanges are providing some useful opinions for everyone in the forum to evaluate before entering trades. I encourage all lurkers to share their opinions in this thread.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,097
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:06pm Oct 20, 2012 9:06pm
have a nice weekend


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,098
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:07pm Oct 20, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting maximmm
Haha, that or eurjpy - I agree -
I'm waiting for eurjpy to retest the broken 4 year trend line - that may happen in.... a month or two
Or maybe even in a couple of days
Although EUR pairs are nice instruments to trade, I think sticking to the Aussie may give me some edge in the market.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,099
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:10pm Oct 20, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting aqeelaputra
have a nice weekend


Attachment
Could you share your insight based on your chart?
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,100
  • Oct 20, 2012 9:12pm Oct 20, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting DaddyBear
It really does not matter who is right or wrong. The exchanges are providing some useful opinions for everyone in the forum to evaluate before entering trades. I encourage all lurkers to share their opinions in this thread.

I agree completely -

By the way, talking about gbp and eurjpy - eurjpy breached the line only a few days ago, but gbpjpy breached the line a long time ago - if it decides to retest the line, it may drop 4000 pips or more - which actually makes sense, given that gbpusd is projected to fall by that amount or more.

While euro and gbp are in in triangle formations with USD - euro is expected to breach the triangle to the upside - while gbp is expected to breach it to the downside.

This btw, implies that euro bears will get slaughtered - the rise is going to be massive - while gbp (the reasons for its expected fall are already clear with Scotland separation referendum already on the horizon and in the headlines.

Yet, even I have difficulties believing this projection - euro breaching the triangle to the upside while gbp to the downside - that would lead eurgbp pair to rise by 7000 pips or more - this scenario is hard to fathom- but that is the projection -
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