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  • #5,401
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:37pm Oct 19, 2012 10:37pm
Wondering if anyone here has tried this exercise with Oanda? It would be nice to hear some feedback.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post3934029
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,402
  • Oct 20, 2012 2:12am Oct 20, 2012 2:12am
Quoting Over60
My favourite pair is EUR/USD
I like the look of GBP/JPY and it could give you a 5 year trend as it reacts often with what the stock markets are doing.

the bottom seems to be in. waiting for it to break 134.00 and scaling in every 70-100 pips or so on the way up. have a feeling it wont be long.

a truck load of interest is a nice bonus if Japan keeps the interest rate low.

do you ever scale out at dips or do you keep all your long-term trades until you feel the trend is over?
  • #5,403
  • Oct 20, 2012 5:52am Oct 20, 2012 5:52am
Dear friends,

Some private message did arrive, so I will try to answer some questions in the public area, due to missing spare time for each request.

Please do not struggle, what G has posted in former times refering 3 x 20 method for scalping intraday. In my point of view it is a myth, anyway it could be a good training for beginners to get experiences. But sorry, I call it scalping and not trading.
If you are firm with fundamental analysis, such as trendlines, support,
resistance and fibo etc.use it.

My procedures are based basically on order-management.

What to do in general is to participate in the market, therefore try to trade forward.
Use at first a demo-account and look for a stable market trend of any pair.

GBP/JPY was mentioned. The monthly trend is long, the weekly trend is sidewards.
Therefore there is space for long. That is what the chart indicates.
But the actually pip-movement does not convince me to invest as long as market moves weekly sidewards.

Be not to angry at the beginning, if some positions will run at first into loss.
The starting period is the most difficult part of longterm strategy.
If you start today, nowbody knows exactly if and when market will turn.
But the monthly candles will indicate the location and trend within the yearly movement of the appropriate market. You get what you see.

No trader will succeed every position in TP (chance 50:50).
Do not place hedge-trades during daily and weekly moves as long as the market break not through the weekly and monthly-candles and as long the trend is visible stable.
Be very confidential and patience with the overall trend as a.m.

You can place daily positions in trend-direction, in reference what you see in the daily-, weekly- and monthly-candles and be care about the pip-movements, I already talked about.
Entry orders placing at first without TP and SL and watch these positions day by day.
Protect positions by BE respectively in TP, when the position has moved far enough from entry in TP, so that daily-movements (e.g. EUR/USD 80-140 Pips) will not close positions to fast by narrow SLs or occasionally homeruns.
Anyway protect your positions/account at BE at the right time. Be not impatient.
Nobody is perfect, especially in the beginning. In the weekly move for e.g , there is space for 250 Pips.
You will see, that the positions will move e.g. 50/100/150/250 pips per day and week, moving up and down and you will get a feeling how the market interacts.
If you place daily not only a single position, you can intraday close positions into profit or loss by your money-management and let survive the best ones, which are far enough away from the actual price.

By the way the questions arised, what to do, if price will temporarly move in the opposite direction. As long as the trend indicates the overall direction, I would furtheron dip at the best price in trend direction.

A lot of traders cannot wait, when a single positions moves e.g. daily in loss.
Longterm traders get not infected, because we have knowledge about the ranges the price will move at the maximum and longterm there are a lot of positions which will compensate temporary movements.

The topic of capital growth consist of buying the trend as much as our balance will allow, considering reversals by risk-management. In periods of sidewards movings e.g. about weeks, a lot of positions within a small area will stacked and work. To protect the account, safe positions at BE/TP on daily occasions and let positions die in shorttem.
In such scenarios concerning order-management, I would take also partial profit concerning some of the orders to reduce the risk for surviving positions, especially during daytrading.
Longterm does not mean that we should not stack daily positions. It depends, if you drive intraday live or EOD with pendings.

There are a lot of reasons to manage a portfolio.

You can transfer the positions-data from MT4-terminal to an excel-worksheet or do it manually. The portfolio-worksheet will be your best teacher at all, because you will watch every development of each position also concerning TP and SLs in an overal view.
If you are firm with excel-applications you can use a diagram, which contains BE, SL, TP and shows your positions in money and pips. In addition you will see at any time the balance of the account.
Anyway you can simulate in advance by input of fictive market prices, what will happen, if price will move in any direction.
Try and simulate worst case scenarios and place daily “fictive” pending orders together with the active positions in your portfolio and manipulate with the price up and down.
The results in the portfolio will tell and teach you instantly, if you bet wrong and what you should do. You will also see in the portfolio, where and depending on movements the risks and limits are located.
The portfolio will indicate the balance also in advance.

I hope, my comments will arrive.

Over 60
Enter Signature
  • #5,404
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:06am Oct 20, 2012 10:06am
"Over60"

He knows what he says.
  • #5,405
  • Edited 4:30pm Oct 20, 2012 3:45pm | Edited 4:30pm
I love those comments from traders who are already in this game for decades....please keep them coming over60.

for the beginners it is too difficult to read the price action on a daily basis, so for them it might be easier to open a small account.
take the trades with the trend only by placing a grid above the price.
once a trade triggers and is in profit, bring it to BE.

if some trades die @ BE, no problem - just place a new grid above the last price and start again.

eventually you end up with a stack of trades which are safe from immediate price movements.

if you want to trade counter trend or otherwise for a quick profit, you might want to open a demo account and learn all the tricks there without losing your shirt.

I like my life slow and easy so I dont do the intra-day stuff on forex.

I have enough exitement scalping the penny stocks on the ASX.
  • #5,406
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:36pm Oct 20, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting Over60
...
There are a lot of reasons to manage a portfolio.
...
Over60,

You are bringing a lot of good and bitter memories by discussing portfolio management.

I did just that for about 3 years (2006-09) in excel and put a ton of 'sweat equity' in building portfolio analytics toolset (what-if scenarios as you describe). With my analyst background and mindset, it became too much of an 'analysis paralysis" for me which could be a down side from experience.

I used to overcomplicate everything trying to factor everything into the equation. Now I feel all that just creates roadblocks in the thought process. Keeping it sensible, simple and use of common sense approach is the best thing I learnt from Graeme.

Here are a few screenshots from my excel based portfolio.
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Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #5,407
  • Oct 21, 2012 5:32am Oct 21, 2012 5:32am
Dear friends,

@Vee:
your portfolio is realy an impressive work and I agree with you in terms of “keep it simple and straight”(kiss).

@Yonnie:
I also agree with you. That´s what I try to explain.
I also work with Grid, respectivly pending-orders at EOD, but I use in addition the below mentioned trade-manager. After hitting a partial profit level, I will let survive a position partly for open end, considering dynamic SL-distances, calculated via partial profit concerning the appropriate lotsize and pip-movements.
If entry and TP-levels are clever placed (guarding the pip-movement) and if they hit, some positions will die at BE or by trailing-stop in TP, other positions will survive for longterm.
With other words, I rarely will burning money getting closed with an emergency-SL, but at BE very often with a small profit, which covers spread + a little profit and I call it at the worst case a “bonus trade”.
It´s a topic by using a versatile trade-manager-ea and I´m not sure, if it make sense to talk about in details here.

At the beginning I also tried to incorporate as much features as possible in the portfolio untill I got overwhelmed, confused and messy (please refer to”Vee”).
I focused my thoughts, what I would realy need to avoid numbercrunching in detail.
I came to the conclusion to reduce the functions radically and I did disassemble that first millipede monster of spreadsheet, I did create.
If you start a longterm strategy, I mentioned not to use TP, SLs and big lotsizes for the beginning.
For beginners: Get at first the right feeling, how the market interact with serveral positions in a demo-account for weeks.
But furtheron you will come to the edge, when e.g 20 or more positions are working in the market and this is the point, we would need a portfolio, not to lose control.

Let me leave the longterm trail for a little while.

I created a separate excel-template for the order-management to calculate orders, taken into account what will happen, if I work with partial profits and how the partial profits would influence the stops. I´d like to know in addition, what I will risk in reference to the lotsize and what I can invest for daily entries concerning the actual balance.
Having in mind, that partial profits would dynamically influence (e.g. increase) the SL-distances.
Most of the traders are not very engaged to work with order-management, nor they understand the dynamics and potential in detail.
With a clever order-management-ea and appropriate trailing-stops, we can reduce losses at a certain level, which will not damage our account within short.
Try and practice order-management scenarios by simple spreadsheet calculations to get firm with.

I´d like to recommend a semi-automatic trade-manager introduced by e.g. “FXTR51”, which provides a lot of tricky features.
That is one of the best trade-managers for MT4 I found over years. The thread will also contain a lot of information about order-management to improve your skills.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=371147

If the TM will apply by a.m. order-calculations, not only scalpers will reduce risks to a minimum in regard to the trailing-stop features. It´s realy worth to try it.

Now back to the topic in reference to the portfolio.

A second template will requested to trace the market movements, which should contain all positions and the price-levels where the stops are placed or orders were closed.
In addition I will need columns to calculate the movements in pips and price in such way, that I will tranfer this values in a diagram to view the movements, the balance and stop-levels also graphically by bars and curves.
Do not overcharge any template. If you will need further calculations use a additional template and interconnect appropriate data to keep it “kiss”, respectivly clear and neatly arranged. It´s yours, how much features you will implement before you get messy.
I recommend to use a diagram, because you will not get confused by hundreds of values in the template and you will see immediately, what e.g. your balance curve is located, even you perform worst case scenario or you work with fictive positions.

Over60
Enter Signature
  • #5,408
  • Oct 21, 2012 2:37pm Oct 21, 2012 2:37pm
Hello Everyone,

I just spent the last week devouring this thread started by Master Graeme, and I have got to say I am blown away by his wisdom. His posts along with everyone's contribution has help me a lot in clarifying my own trading "philosophy", something I have been working on for the last six months, with limited success. I would just like to say thank you to Master Graeme and everyone who contributed, you have my sincerest gratitude.

While I have read as fast as I could, currently on page 236, I still have 130 pages to read to catch up, and I noticed that some of the pictures Master Graeme has posted is no longer available, I am wondering if anyone can point me to the latest compilation of his posts? the one I found only have up to post# 3485.

Thank you very much for your help
Sincerely
  • #5,409
  • Edited 2:39am Oct 22, 2012 2:25am | Edited 2:39am
Here is my first ever live trade,currently set at be.

Edit: Another trade steup on GBP USD
Flying buda on 1h candle
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,410
  • Edited Oct 25, 2012 10:36am Oct 24, 2012 4:51pm | Edited Oct 25, 2012 10:36am
Quoting damosdmf
yes i have TheRealThings infinite yield pdf saved to my computer will get around to reading it one day he is a very knowledgeable man.

regards damien
Would you be so kind to share the pdf will a fellow (newbie) trader? Perhaps contact me with a private message? Or can you download it from somewhere?

/ Petter
  • #5,411
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:27pm Oct 24, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting pipsson
Would you be so kind to share the pdf will a fellow (newbie) trader? ...e?
You may like to use Private Messaging service to keep your e-mail private.

You may also like to delete your post containing your e-mail address.

Click at your name at the top left corner of your FF page, you will be directed to page containing Private Messaging option. Click at Send New Message and start wrting your private message.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #5,412
  • Oct 25, 2012 10:41am Oct 25, 2012 10:41am
Thank you! It appears I am a newbie in posting stuff on forums aswell!

/ Pipsson
  • #5,413
  • Nov 5, 2012 5:41am Nov 5, 2012 5:41am
just type infinite yield pdf into google ---its trading for infinite yield utility theory and you second link down in google its on forex factory

regards damo
i pull the trigger when others are fearful---me
  • #5,414
  • Nov 6, 2012 10:15am Nov 6, 2012 10:15am
Quoting VEEFX

Wondering if anyone here has seen a version of this Group Exposure indicator which displays pnl in Pips instead of $ ? Any coders out here who can modify this indicator?
I can if you stop deleting your posts. This thread left the neat and tidy bandwagon long ago.
  • #5,415
  • Nov 6, 2012 10:33am Nov 6, 2012 10:33am
Quoting VEEFX

Wondering if anyone here has seen a version of this Group Exposure indicator which displays pnl in Pips instead of $ ? Any coders out here who can modify this indicator?
You don't get Commision and Swap included. Also every trade would have to be the same size for this to make sense.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 iGroupExposure-v2.mq4   15 KB | 564 downloads
  • #5,416
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:42pm Nov 6, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting Paradox
You don't get Commision and Swap included. Also every trade would have to be the same size for this to make sense.
Thanks Paradox. Makes sense for this indicator to work only for same size lots. I force myself to hide commissions and swaps (I treat them as necessary business costs for month end pnl accounting)

I delete my posts to reduce my internet footprint, prevent turning this thread into a personal journal and to briefly encourage/motivate folks to participate and realize their full potential.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,417
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:52pm Nov 6, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting VEEFX
Thanks Paradox. Makes sense for this indicator to work only for same size lots. I force myself to hide commissions and swaps (I treat them as necessary business costs for month end pnl accounting)

I delete my posts to reduce my internet footprint, prevent turning this thread into a personal journal and to briefly encourage/motivate folks to participate and realize their full potential.
arghhh! You did it again. Well maybe you should start a thread just on the stacking concepts. They are intriguing.
  • #5,418
  • Edited 12:51pm Nov 7, 2012 9:48am | Edited 12:51pm
I am thinking of mini-diversification sometime today/this week for this pair as it has reached 50% FIB on weekly trend.

One option I am considering is to buy and sell the total amount of lots. Buy will freeze my floating profits. If it retraces, I will close Buy and consider that as a mini-diversification. If downtrend continues, I will take a loss on buy and yet continue to see growth. Any thoughts/suggestions if this could be an alternative approach to diversification?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT: If I close all but one position, I should be able to recover approx. 75% of my current total account drawdown in $ terms from October.

EDIT1: looking at the monthly currency strength, it is not advisable to go long.... so no diversification for me this week on this pair.

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Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,419
  • Nov 7, 2012 5:05pm Nov 7, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
I am thinking of mini-diversification sometime today/this week for this pair as it has reached 50% FIB on weekly trend.

One option I am considering is to buy and sell the total amount of lots. Buy will freeze my floating profits. If it retraces, I will close Buy and consider that as a mini-diversification. If downtrend continues, I will take a loss on buy and yet continue to see growth. Any thoughts/suggestions if this could be an alternative approach to diversification?

Attachment

EDIT: If I close all but one position, I should...
I agree with your decision not to diversify here. I'd hold till the end of the month at least as last month was a very attractive pin bar and we are already trading below last months lows. Bears in firm control.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #5,420
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:54pm Nov 7, 2012 7:54pm
Quoting Paradox
arghhh! You did it again. Well maybe you should start a thread just on the stacking concepts. They are intriguing.
if there is a way to copy my live trades into a demo account, I might consider starting a journal with trade explorer. I hate to edit my screenshots to preserve my privacy (hide account number etc). Stacking requires a lot of mental focus and forum participation will affect my results.
Staying in my lane...
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