Elliott wave outlook

Hi Luis,

a quick few words regarding probabilities:


the W-wave is highly unlikely as you have counted it. Statistics show, that in falling double zigzags wave C is minimum around 75% of wave A by price. In the majority of cases it is between 100 and 150% of A

By time, in most cases, it is between 80 and 275%.

So by judging from the statistics the count is highly unlikely.

But I think there are more possibilities to count it as a double zigzag :-)


When we look at the internals of this wave W we can see, that is does not offer the best impulsive nature. Nonetheless we can come up with the idea of a leading diagonal (down). Adding to that we have to notice, that price broke out of the base channel which contained the movements from the 204x low.

Right now we are testing this base channel from the lower side. When price can regain it, we surely have a high chance to see new highs. If not.....

Some try to count the whole movement since the top at 3171 as part of a triangle, where we are now in wave D (up) of this triangle.


Due to some good fib relationships/fib retracements I do think, that the highest chance is for a count, where we have seen the top at 3171, and are now in the first part of a larger structure down to below 1.18.

But with the action of the last days I have trouble to find a nice solution.

At this time we can count nearly everything.


So I will watch and see, what the price is doing at the channel line :-)

Hey Markus,

The top could be in place how you say I have no doubt about it, but how someday I tell you I use RSI weekly to count cycles and to me we are in a new cycle that has not finished yet. When the market breaks that support I will change the count as you have

Also the correlation of the SPX500 with euro dollar has been very high this months. Look when SPX goes up, euro too not at the same magnitud, but always at the same direcction.

So the SPX500 is performing wave 4 and needs to make wave 5, that is why i am talking about euro dollar goes to 1.274 then 1.344 to finish this correction cycle.

I was looking some EW blogs, and everybody is talking about the triangle at euro dollar, in my experience I prefer to take the waves as a FLAT than a triangle. I always took the triangle as last possibility.

In this Aussie chart the target also coud get at 0.997..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1349988208

If we break 1.30 say bye to 1.274X

agree

Short euro aussie target 1.236

here's this week's plan




http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post6096599

I see 30 pips gap down at euro aussie

the euro dollar plan?

nothing still waiting for my short tp of 1.28 0r 1.18....


did i tell you HOW MUCH I HATE THAT PAIR

YES, it is the best!

I prefer euro aussie!

I prefer any other pair but eur.usd.....what's your current count on the pair?

which one

Eur.usd

is any body here can tell me where the Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd will go this week and what is the point he will go up and if you can but a chart for that?

Eur/Usd

Hmmmm ? ..............


( Click on image or chart to enlarge )

the same. 1.274 to finish this correction or is done at 1.2830... But look wave B is the shitness!!! sooo...

the same charts

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1350054731

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1350054103