EUR/CHF | Page 493 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies

Attachments: EUR/CHF
Exit Attachments

EUR/CHF

  • #9,841
  • Sep 25, 2012 11:38am Sep 25, 2012 11:38am
Quoting didi_doedel
If sight deposits are invested in foreign currencies and contain mainly German and French bonds, how is this reflected in SNB's CHF denominated sight deposits?

E.g. if EUR/CHF rises or when interests on bunds fall, would this not trigger a rise of sight deposits in CHF?

So if SNB stops buying bunds, their interests may go up and SNB might need to write off in their sight deposits even though they did not intervene?

I'm no expert, please tell me when I'm wrong. Thanks.
I'm no expert too, but I think Sight Deposits is not what SNB is 'printing' to buy EUR or bonds etc. Sight Deposits are inflows (incl majority foreign inflows) from other EZ members or elsewhere into Switzerland.

Due to this inflow, CHF will strengthen & SNB has to 'print' more CHF to buy EUR to offset & balance this inflow (Sight Deposit increase), so as to maintain the floor. The amount of EUR purchase may also indirectly come from these Sight Deposits from commercial Swiss banks via SNB.

But one thing I don't understand is that any non-Swiss opening a Swiss bank account can choose to deposit any form of currency into Switzerland.
For example I can choose open a EUR or USD-base account in any Swiss bank and deposit in that currency other than CHF. How does that tally into CHF sight deposits & strengthening?
  • #9,842
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:45pm Sep 25, 2012 2:45pm
no doubt EUR/CHF will go back at floor.
  • #9,843
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:41pm Sep 25, 2012 3:41pm
what do you think about this story:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1416b...#axzz27W38e6yU
  • #9,844
  • Sep 25, 2012 4:16pm Sep 25, 2012 4:16pm
SNB data of end of June:
60% in €
85% in sovereign bonds
http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/assets/id/assets_reserves

and here we find 95b CHF deposits with other CB:
http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...ven_der_CH.pdf

So although the deposits with other CBs are significant, there would be still enough for S&P's statement of 80b
  • #9,845
  • Sep 25, 2012 6:20pm Sep 25, 2012 6:20pm
Quoting didi_doedel
SNB data of end of June:
60% in €
85% in sovereign bonds
http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/assets/id/assets_reserves

and here we find 95b CHF deposits with other CB:
http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...ven_der_CH.pdf

So although the deposits with other CBs are significant, there would be still enough for S&P's statement of 80b
Thank you! Now another reason to go back at 1,2010 for international or national pressure!
  • #9,846
  • Sep 26, 2012 1:52am Sep 26, 2012 1:52am
Quoting qatar
Thank you! Now another reason to go back at 1,2010 for international or national pressure!
For me a rate around 1,21 sounds like:
- without SNB exchange rate would now be around 1,10 (estimation based on EUR/USD) and 90% likelihood that without SNB it won't go up beyond 1,20
- floor break very unlikely for the next months
- 10% probability that EUR/USD increases massively towards 1,50, then EUR/CHF could go up to 1,30

Pricing: 90%*1,201 + 10% * 1,30 = 1,211.


So a price around at 1,201 is not a correct price if downside risks are very unlikely and upside opportunities exist.

Rising EUR/USD will only partially be followed by rising EUR/CHF until a certain limit where EUR is strong enough that SNB floor does not matter any more.
  • #9,847
  • Sep 26, 2012 2:55pm Sep 26, 2012 2:55pm
DJ SNB: S&P Report On Bonds Contains Fundamental Error
25-Sep-2012
ZURICH (Dow Jones)--The Swiss National Bank Tuesday said a report by rating agency Standard & Poor's on its holdings of euro-denominated government bonds contained a fundamental error.

The report "ignores the sizable increase of SNB deposits with other central banks and international institutions which are published monthly by the SNB," the Swiss central bank said in a statement.

"The conclusion by S&P that the Swiss National Bank has bought about 80 billion euros of government bonds of core euro zone countries is unfounded."
  • #9,848
  • Sep 27, 2012 1:30am Sep 27, 2012 1:30am
Once, when we were boring at 1.2010, every morning i came to work, I could read 2.5 pages of interesting posts... now at 1.2090, no posts anymore... what a bummer.
  • #9,849
  • Sep 27, 2012 3:15am Sep 27, 2012 3:15am
Quoting Swissie
Once, when we were boring at 1.2010, every morning i came to work, I could read 2.5 pages of interesting posts... now at 1.2090, no posts anymore... what a bummer.
I reckon most of the fellow warriors quit around 1,215...
  • #9,850
  • Sep 27, 2012 7:04am Sep 27, 2012 7:04am
UBS and CS smarter than S&P ??

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...743058126.html

"It is very important to take into account that SNB cash holdings at other central banks constitute a significant part of its 'sovereign bond allocation,'" said Maxime Botteron, an economist at Credit Suisse.
...
"As the bulk of the SNB's currency interventions find their way onto the balance sheets of other central banks, the S&P's assessment whereby the SNB bought around EUR80 billion appears stretched to say the least," said UBS.



Credit Suisse estimates the Swiss central bank purchased euro-zone bonds worth around CHF35 billion in the first seven months of the year.
  • #9,851
  • Sep 27, 2012 7:37am Sep 27, 2012 7:37am
Quoting Swissie
Once, when we were boring at 1.2010, every morning i came to work, I could read 2.5 pages of interesting posts... now at 1.2090, no posts anymore... what a bummer.
I also notice many of our 'old pals' of 1.2010 are not writing much here...

Where is Brinks? We miss you.

Oh well, something is certain about this pair - "It's pattern is always uncertain".

See the pair's behavior just from SNB's meetings when they kept mentioning the same "Utmost determination of 1.20" :
13th Dec 2011 - Sudden drop of 200 pips from near 1.24
13th Mar 2012 - Steady climb from 1.2050 to 1.2140, then gradual decline back to 1.2050.
13th Jun 2012 - Almost nothing much happened, just spike up from 1.2010 to 1.2018 (8pips), then sudden drop in a few minutes back to 1.2010.
13 Sep 2012 - Shot upwards to 1.2180 from 1.2100.

So you see, 4 different behaviors but same announcement from SNB's keeping the peg.

What will happen tomorrow, next week, next month - we all don't know.
Only someone knows - Jordan. & perhaps Danthine.
  • #9,852
  • Sep 27, 2012 10:01am Sep 27, 2012 10:01am
Quoting alaneth
I also notice many of our 'old pals' of 1.2010 are not writing much here...

Where is Brinks? We miss you.

Oh well, something is certain about this pair - "It's pattern is always uncertain".

See the pair's behavior just from SNB's meetings when they kept mentioning the same "Utmost determination of 1.20" :
13th Dec 2011 - Sudden drop of 200 pips from near 1.24
13th Mar 2012 - Steady climb from 1.2050 to 1.2140, then gradual decline back to 1.2050.
13th Jun 2012 - Almost nothing much happened, just spike up from 1.2010 to 1.2018 (8pips),...
Hi Alaneth how are you doing?

I check in now and again but with no positions open in this pair until it either breaks up or moves back to the floor i wont be trading it.
  • #9,853
  • Sep 27, 2012 10:50am Sep 27, 2012 10:50am
Quoting brinks
Hi Alaneth how are you doing?

I check in now and again but with no positions open in this pair until it either breaks up or moves back to the floor i wont be trading it.
Nice to see you in this thread again Brinks.

I've closed almost all my posn, left with 1 lot open. Eagerly waiting & hoping for a drop back to below 1.2020 to reload. Also doing nothing but waiting & following up on economic news.

Best of luck
  • #9,854
  • Sep 27, 2012 11:38pm Sep 27, 2012 11:38pm
Anyone notice the bull flag on h1?
  • #9,855
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:41am Sep 28, 2012 2:41am
Quoting pipxster
Anyone notice the bull flag on h1?
nope
  • #9,856
  • Sep 28, 2012 9:42am Sep 28, 2012 9:42am
The upmove seems to be sustainable. All predictions seeing this pair at 1,2010 within some minutes/hours/days/one week were false. Furthermore, I am quite surprised that the eurchf didn't take a dive during the last minutes (just have a look at the pa of the eurusd...). So, in my opinion up we go!
  • #9,857
  • Sep 28, 2012 11:10am Sep 28, 2012 11:10am
Quote
Once, when we were boring at 1.2010, every morning i came to work, I could read 2.5 pages of interesting posts... now at 1.2090, no posts anymore... what a bummer.

Me, too!

I used to enjoy reading this thread just for its entertainment value alone.
Usually cracked me up.
You can lose your shirt if your buttons are loose.
  • #9,858
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:10pm Sep 28, 2012 2:10pm
Ready to break 1,2080. Now yes we will See 1,201. And Jordan next year will abandon cap policy. Finally I can note complacency
  • #9,859
  • Sep 29, 2012 3:50am Sep 29, 2012 3:50am
I believe EUR/CHF will neither go back to 1,201 nor up above 1,22.

Reason:
for the moment floor is credible, and investors should price in upwards potentital (say 10%) without big downward potential (so 90% weight on 1,201).

Changes may only occur when:
1) EUR/USD rises significantly, say towards 1,38
2) inflation rises significantly, say to +1%
3) SNB could get rid of sight deposits

Nothing is likely for the months to come, but my long term bet is on 2).
  • #9,860
  • Sep 29, 2012 9:27am Sep 29, 2012 9:27am
Quoting qatar
Ready to break 1,2080. Now yes we will See 1,201. And Jordan next year will abandon cap policy. Finally I can note complacency
Are you seriously shorting EURCHF? till below 1.20?

I'm a long. I'm hoping it will go down only to reload, then to go up again. I've got almost no more positions to make more money if it goes up now...
2 traders viewing now