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Circular Trendlines

  • #2,141
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:59am Sep 5, 2012 8:59am
M30
The blue circle is providing strong resistance at the moment, However The bounce off the north pole of the lower black circle will break through the blue circle stop at the region of the dotted black lines, creating a expanding region for the moment
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  • #2,142
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:16am Sep 6, 2012 8:16am
The rise towards 2640 did make a new higher high at 2653. So a uptrend is still in place and desire to go upwards is still intact. The retracement this morning from 2653 level down to 2590 will still continue. The center of the blue circle at 2570 level is a weak support level, the only reinforcement for that support zone is the red circle, which it too has not shown any considerable support in the past either.

The trend for today will be downwards towards a more sustainable support level. Given the fact that tomorrow is NFP movement we could be hovering between 2550 and 2600 till tomorrow.
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  • #2,143
  • Sep 7, 2012 8:14am Sep 7, 2012 8:14am
The uptrend is still in place and the thrust upwards from the 2560/2570 is entering a new stage of development that will take it to 3000 level very easily.
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  • #2,144
  • Sep 9, 2012 1:05am Sep 9, 2012 1:05am
Quoting herzert
I work this view on Eurusd this month August, I know not too many circle but i follow thread sometime now and I see Kambooj very good analysis sometimes but levels are a bit off as well just like almost every good trader, the most important is to know what the market is doing so exploration will turn to exploit.

I will try not post too much this month so we can see if my analysis is worth anything while i studied circles to add to my arsenal then maybe my post with circular trend line. The timeline i put on chart is not concrete but new strategy i work now.
The EuroDollar has done very well, and trades have been very profitable to say the least, albeit my reversal area was a bit off, but because i already had expectations of bullish momentum coming in at some point in time i had to use Options to trade the scenario, just like was mentioned in my last post that the "most important is to know what the market is doing so exploration will turn to exploit".

My bottom/timing date was on point, with bullish-like candle being created across the board, using the H4 chart i was able to exploit the situation with two opportunities arising on the 28th and 30th August (marked on chart with "A" and "B" respectively) with very tight stop-losses indeed, the swing target of 1.2800 has been well realized and the rest is history while the Options position is strong and flourishing.

I am still trying to put the logic of circular trend-line together and when i am fully convinced that i can add value to the topic of the thread then i will post more, so from here where does the euro go?

Happy weekend for now.
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  • #2,145
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:35am Sep 11, 2012 8:35am
H4
The continuous rise of the bubbles and supports being formed along the edges of the bubbles point to a uncompleted rise that is still in progress.

The thrust from the inside perimeter of the blue circle has entered the grey zone of that circle and if this zone which is also the 61.8 fibonacci retracement of the drop from 3282 to 2040 gets breached, which does seem that way, then we will have a perimeter to perimeter rise within the blue circle and end up at 3150 before a retracement downwards begins.

For now continue to buy on dips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #2,146
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:56am Sep 11, 2012 8:56am
Additional upward movement to 2900 will resume shortly.
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  • #2,147
  • Sep 12, 2012 8:56am Sep 12, 2012 8:56am
H8
As expected price action continues to soar and go up. Right now using fibo's is the best tool for an estimate of the limits of upward movment. Looking for fib overlap zones, 3150 level seems to be where price is heading. Current sentiment is still a buy
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  • #2,148
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:58am Sep 14, 2012 8:58am
After the hard break through the center of the shown circle, the movement that has started from 2050 at the base of the circle will at least travel through 3/4 of the height of the diameter of the circle. The resting spot will be changed from 3150 to 3490/3500 zone.
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H8.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #2,149
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:03am Sep 14, 2012 9:03am
Here is a update on more expected upward movement
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  • #2,150
  • Sep 15, 2012 10:41am Sep 15, 2012 10:41am
Quoting oossaa
H4
http://s43.radikal.ru/i100/1208/e2/c0dd8278d64b.png
Update:
http://s019.radikal.ru/i600/1209/d7/4494f5fb1454.png
  • #2,151
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:16am Sep 17, 2012 8:16am
M30
Continuation of the upward movement towards 3500 will resume again. For now we are entering a corrective phase, that can go as low as 3030 and as high as 3225. If you are for short term trading then its best to get out now, and wait for Tuesday before deciding on a position. If you are a weekly trader then keep your position open till we reach the highs of 3200 first before deciding to keep on holding to the position or closing it down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,152
  • Edited 8:43am Sep 17, 2012 8:32am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting Kambooj
M30
Continuation of the upward movement towards 3500 will resume again. For now we are entering a corrective phase, that can go as low as 3030 and as high as 3225. If you are for short term trading then its best to get out now, and wait for Tuesday before deciding on a position. If you are a weekly trader then keep your position open till we reach the highs of 3200 first before deciding to keep on holding to the position or closing it down
same thoughts bro. good chart and analyzes
looking for investors . pm me
  • #2,153
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:04am Sep 18, 2012 9:04am
The circle on the M30 still remains a viable region for support. The M10 is showing congestion very close within the inside/outside of several circles. Such congestion usually happens before a spike upwards.

Better to wait after 10:30 for a buy position.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M10.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #2,154
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:36am Sep 20, 2012 9:36am
The recent drop is a short term retracement for a rewind towards 3480 level. Today would not be a good day to go long and a better position will arise tomorrow.

This is because we are at the blue line (T1), with very little reaction on going upwards, chances are that T1 will be broken towards the important junction spot shown in the chart above, which is roughly around 2809.

But there is also one other important item to note as well, which is the fact that we are stuck at the 23.6 Fibonacci level of the rise from 2050. Whether this level will hold or break is the decisive factor and because of that we need to proceed with caution on choosing a position.

Weekly / Long term traders consider closing your position anywhere between 3000/3050

Short term traders need to wait for a more secure setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,155
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:16am Sep 21, 2012 12:16am
The upward movement that was shown earlier in the previous post by the blue dotted arrows has resumed from the lows of 2900. If 3000 gets broken chances of going lower to 2800 will diminish till motion reaches 3150 again.

Here is the M10 view...

Quoting Kambooj
The recent drop is a short term retracement for a rewind towards 3480 level. Today would not be a good day to go long and a better position will arise tomorrow.

This is because we are at the blue line (T1), with very little reaction on going upwards, chances are that T1 will be broken towards the important junction spot shown in the chart above, which is roughly around 2809.

But there is also one other important item to note as well, which is the fact that we are stuck at the 23.6 Fibonacci level of the rise from 2050. Whether this level will...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M10.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #2,156
  • Sep 21, 2012 9:21am Sep 21, 2012 9:21am
The EUR continues to do what it does best, and that is giving the impression of a reversal to everybody, but picking up the actual original trend once again and pursuing it.

Currently from the fibs one can see that at at each price extension level, we either have a resistance or a support forming and we are at the median line in blue.

The median line has been holding price fairly decently so far, and a new surge starting at 2970-3000 has begun.

This surge will continue to go upwards until it hits either of the 3 lines shown (3207/3224/3279).

One of these levels will be a turning spot for price to substantially drop to the heavy trendline marked as T1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,157
  • Sep 22, 2012 7:46am Sep 22, 2012 7:46am
Thanks Kambooj, nice thread
  • #2,158
  • Sep 25, 2012 8:38am Sep 25, 2012 8:38am
After staying out for yesterday and trying to see what price action will do, the conclusion is that a good buying position will not be available until support is maintained above the blue line. The lack of this phenomenon will only drive price downwards again towards the T1 trendline. At T1 the next buy opportunity exists.

There are 2 situations that can happen until T1 is reached, The first situation is where we will have rangebound motion happening betwwn 2900 and 2970 until enough time passes, so that we hit T1, and the second situation is a straight drop to T1.

For Weekly traders its best to stay out for another 24 hour to see what happens. For Day traders you can try small sells at 2970-3000 level.

Long term trend is still up. If you are a weekly trader, then keeping positions open till next week will certainly allow more time to pass and allow more strategies to be implemented.

My own personal view is that since a tripple zero level (ie 3000) has been hit which is also a important psyche level, and price is hovering around it, this hovering motion is not a signal for further demise downwards below 2000. The speed of the drop from 3175 should have been substantially more than what we are seeing now.

The banks usually target whole round number levels such as 2000 / 3000 / 4000 etc. 1000 / 1500 pips at a time is usually their strategy. As to where the next 1000 pip move will begin is the question.

With current situation if a serious drop is to about to happen, we need a double top. If that double top has not formed yet, then it hasnt gotten down enough to go back up and form it, but eventually it will do that before a drop happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #2,159
  • Sep 27, 2012 10:09am Sep 27, 2012 10:09am
Yesterday was another day of slow market activity which was not apparent what the market was going to do. Its a bit more clear after another day of staying out, that the downward motion is trying to find a different place to go upwards from.

For now the buy orders have to be placed lower at 2720.

Until then its a slow down draft going south.

Here are the details:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 128 KB
  • #2,160
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:49am Oct 1, 2012 9:49am
There are still no signs of weakness on the daily chart as the EUR continues to go downwards, with occasional spikes upwards just it did today at the openning of the EUR session. The downward motion will continue until the lows of 2700 before any upward movement is to begin.

2950-2960 is good sell zone for today


Quoting Kambooj
Yesterday was another day of slow market activity which was not apparent what the market was going to do. Its a bit more clear after another day of staying out, that the downward motion is trying to find a different place to go upwards from.

For now the buy orders have to be placed lower at 2720.

Until then its a slow down draft going south.

Here are the details:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 101 KB
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