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  • #3,521
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:53am Sep 24, 2012 9:53am
Hi LJ,

As this method needs some detailed study before trade, out of curiosity, how many pairs do you generally keep track off and watch.

I see you have trades mainly initiated in ltf which can be difficult to keep track of for multiple pairs ( atleast for me as a starter).

May help with a tip how do you keep track or scan multiple pairs/multiple timeframes to recognize or find setup.

Is the lowest timeframe for you to identify a trade setup maximum times is 60M and 15/5 min entry ?

Your inputs will help as always.

Thanks
Success is 1 % intelligence and 99% perseverance - Edison
  • #3,522
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:08am Sep 24, 2012 10:08am
Quoting adam777
Hi Lovejoy

As you didn't short the first breach of supply, did you wait till price broke the compression wedge before looking and waiting for an entry point? ... then shorting the BEOB that occurred after the compression wedge breach?

Cheers

Adam

P.S. Thank you for the videos!
I shorted after the bar marked with the 3rd arrow had closed.
  • #3,523
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:43am Sep 24, 2012 10:43am
Quoting ritesh_fx
Hi LJ,

As this method needs some detailed study before trade, out of curiosity, how many pairs do you generally keep track off and watch.

I see you have trades mainly initiated in ltf which can be difficult to keep track of for multiple pairs ( atleast for me as a starter).

May help with a tip how do you keep track or scan multiple pairs/multiple timeframes to recognize or find setup.

Is the lowest timeframe for you to identify a trade setup maximum times is 60M and 15/5 min entry ?

Your inputs will help as always.

Thanks
I just counted and I have:

- 36 forex pairs.
- 2x metals (gold+silver).
- 2x commodities (crude oil+brent oil).
- 6 Equity Indexes
- Bund + USDx

on my watch-list.

With regards FTB's I 'mainly' focus on daily, H4 and H1 TF's for obvious stand out FTB's.

I only zoom in if the setup is clear on one or more of the above TF's.

With a bit of practice it really only takes once or twice per day to review your charts to look for FTB's based on these TF's as you can spot setups forming pretty far in advance most of the time.

EDIT: I am however much pickier on crosses and exotics because I find they can be less reliable due to liquidity, order-flow reasons etc. Plus spread is also of course a higher % of the cost of trade - therefore I tend to focus on H4 setups on these pairs.
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  • #3,524
  • Sep 24, 2012 10:52am Sep 24, 2012 10:52am
Quoting lovejoy80
I shorted after the bar marked with the 3rd arrow had closed.
That's what I thought. Thanks
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,525
  • Sep 24, 2012 11:35am Sep 24, 2012 11:35am
lj how a false breakout is created ? what is the logic behind it ?
  • #3,526
  • Sep 24, 2012 1:53pm Sep 24, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting adam777
New to this ...
This is a possibility. What you have to remember in a bull (or bear) trap is that you want to be able to conclude that (a) a significant cluster of stops were triggered and (b) novice traders were enticed into going long.

The former provides liquidity for the Professional money, the latter is the order-flow that results in price moving down - often with good momentum. Why, because the traders that were enticed to go long will be looking to exit their trades causing a cluster of short orders - combine this with new sellers shorting when price moves back below the wedge / SR etc and that's the order-flow that will push price down.

There are times where you can predict where a trap will likely form ie. you can see an SD zone close to an SR zone - the SD zone being where the Professional money is resided and the SR zone being where (a) the novice traders orders are clustered (stops and breakout orders).

Will find a couple of examples to illustrate in a moment.
  • #3,527
  • Sep 24, 2012 2:12pm Sep 24, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting lovejoy80
This is a possibility. What you have to remember in a bull (or bear) trap is that you want to be able to conclude that (a) a significant cluster of stops were triggered and (b) novice traders were enticed into going long.

The former provides liquidity for the Professional money, the latter is the order-flow that results in price moving down - often with good momentum. Why, because the traders that were enticed to go long will be looking to exit their trades causing a cluster of short orders - combine this with new sellers shorting when price...
An example of a bear trap and how the setup could have been foreseen and why.

This type of trading setup is what I'm looking for every day - bull and bear traps are easy setups to find and result in some very high probability setups.

This all results from a fundamental knowledge of market participants and order-flow dynamics together with a logical objective mindset.

Unfortunately it is this type of knowledge, understanding and mindset that is missing from the retail PA space. Everyone wants to follow rule based methods that don't achieve anywhere close to the trading results you can achieve if you actually use your brain and not follow the herd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bear Trap Example 1 - CADJPY H1.jpg Size: 166 KB
  • #3,528
  • Sep 24, 2012 2:26pm Sep 24, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting lovejoy80
This is a possibility. What you have to remember in a bull (or bear) trap is that you want to be able to conclude that (a) a significant cluster of stops were triggered and (b) novice traders were enticed into going long.

The former provides liquidity for the Professional money, the latter is the order-flow that results in price moving down - often with good momentum. Why, because the traders that were enticed to go long will be looking to exit their trades causing a cluster of short orders - combine this with new sellers shorting when price...
wow,thanks for the explanation!

i understood the bull/bear trap concept but this theoretical explanation gives more vivid understanding.
  • #3,529
  • Sep 24, 2012 2:26pm Sep 24, 2012 2:26pm
A quick scan of some charts and here are two more examples.

This time the point at where price reacts is not as predictable as the CADJPY setup. But the area is predictable as one where the order-flow dynamics that is essential to a bull/bear trap is definitely present (i.e. clear SR where stops will be clustered from short trades and where novice breakout traders will be looking to go long on the break).

So on these we can get in after price has moved back below the SR as that confirms the 'trap' is likely to play out.

This is why price will often move with very good momentum to an FLR/S.

Of course knowing the order-flow dynamics behind the bars tells us with high probability what is happening and thus how price should move which of course allows for precise entries and SL placement (i.e. no need for wide SL's above bar highs or above bar highs + "add random number here" approach).

Notice that the type of bar that forms is completely irrelevant, we don't need certain bar patterns to exist to take a trade if we know what is happening behind the bars.

A bit of logic and using the grey matter goes a long way!

Note: there is more to trading bull / bear traps than just the above (all of which is built on the 'knowledge' of supply and demand that I've already shared on my website) but this will do for now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bull trap - ncad daily tf.jpg Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: bull trap eaud h1.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #3,530
  • Sep 24, 2012 3:36pm Sep 24, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Also had a long on EU based on 30min bear trap (the earlier short that Greenhaze outlined was nice, but missed it), but scratched it around BE as price couldn't get over that 5min DBD.

I have orders in place for Silver FTB long, a UCAD FTB short and a USDJPY SD long but nothing else jumps out at me right now, so will probably call it a day now.
Took the same trade Mark, i bailed out with a small profit when price hit the 5m-supply just above, tried to reenter later on via that 5m-PB and got stopped out @ BE. In hindsight price was busy consuming that supply it only took quite some time and when finally that supply was consumed price made a RBR-decision to breach it. A better trade would've been the FTB to S/R @ 12930 which i missed due to work obligations that really pissed me off. Price gave a double sell PA via a 5m-BEOB and a 1m-QM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xmz1.jpg Size: 156 KB
Pipcrawler
  • #3,531
  • Sep 24, 2012 3:43pm Sep 24, 2012 3:43pm
Speaking of traps, DAX generated a beautifull bulltrap, price spiking through a S/R right into supply just above
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xmz1.jpg Size: 150 KB
Pipcrawler
  • #3,532
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:39pm Sep 24, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting xmzhang
Took the same trade Mark, i bailed out with a small profit when price hit the 5m-supply just above
Nice charts, great analysis Do you maintain this level of clarity and serenity when in a trade?

Some nice setups for a Monday. Not at my best what with this cold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 415 eurusd m30.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #3,533
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:20am Sep 25, 2012 2:20am
Quoting xmzhang
Took the same trade Mark, i bailed out with a small profit when price hit the 5m-supply just above, tried to reenter later on via that 5m-PB and got stopped out @ BE. In hindsight price was busy consuming that supply it only took quite some time and when finally that supply was consumed price made a RBR-decision to breach it. A better trade would've been the FTB to S/R @ 12930 which i missed due to work obligations that really pissed me off. Price gave a double sell PA via a 5m-BEOB and a 1m-QM.
Yeah I missed that short too annoyingly.

You're right, good analysis there, price was consuming the supply - just took a damn age to do it given how slow yesterday was.
  • #3,534
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:22am Sep 25, 2012 2:22am
Quote
Nice charts, great analysis Do you maintain this level of clarity and serenity when in a trade?



Quote
Some nice setups for a Monday. Not at my best what with this cold.

Next you'll be telling be you drink Soya milk ...
  • #3,535
  • Edited 8:48am Sep 25, 2012 2:52am | Edited 8:48am
Morning,

Bought silver since last night, reasons shown on chart.

The wide space between the entry mark and the buy line is due to the wide spread.

If price reach my TP will consider selling from the same area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S001.jpg Size: 134 KB
Sniffing Snake's Tracks...
  • #3,536
  • Sep 25, 2012 7:41am Sep 25, 2012 7:41am
Closed it and waiting for a short entry below the broken trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S002.jpg Size: 117 KB
Sniffing Snake's Tracks...
  • #3,537
  • Sep 25, 2012 8:30am Sep 25, 2012 8:30am
Quoting FX.Sniffer
Closed it and waiting for a short entry below the broken trend.
Nice trade outcome, but that is not technically a QM - your 'LL' is not lower than you 'L'?
  • #3,538
  • Edited 8:54am Sep 25, 2012 8:41am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting lovejoy80
Nice trade outcome, but that is not technically a QM - your 'LL' is not lower than you 'L'?
you're absolutely right, i dont know what happened i think i marked the wrong levels when i was preparing the chart, but there is a QM in there.

There..I've edited the chart and can be clearly viewed on the M5 TF.

Thanks for correcting me.
Sniffing Snake's Tracks...
  • #3,539
  • Sep 25, 2012 9:30am Sep 25, 2012 9:30am
Quoting lovejoy80
I just counted and I have:

- 36 forex pairs.
- 2x metals (gold+silver).
- 2x commodities (crude oil+brent oil).
- 6 Equity Indexes
- Bund + USDx

on my watch-list.

With regards FTB's I 'mainly' focus on daily, H4 and H1 TF's for obvious stand out FTB's.

-
Many Thanks LJ !!
Success is 1 % intelligence and 99% perseverance - Edison
  • #3,540
  • Sep 25, 2012 10:50am Sep 25, 2012 10:50am
Hi LJ

Would the attatched count as a bear trap eur jpy chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4ht bear trap eur jpy.jpg Size: 84 KB
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