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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #55,381
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:47pm Sep 19, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting TRMZXT
PT...I know you are dancing after that. lol I will say this though it seems it is ALWAYS something else besides the normal outlook a lot of times that pushes the market.
I'm just the messenger. I have my own reasons for my bearish sentiment and if I feel it's time to cross the floor, it doesn't matter what the media prints or what the talking heads say.

My sentiment is based on my understanding of the current technical and fundamental conditions in a context of potential capital flow in the medium to long term.

I just so happen to agree with Jen's assessment of the general sentiment in the institutional world.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,382
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:09pm Sep 19, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm just the messenger. I have my own reasons for my bearish sentiment and if I feel it's time to cross the floor, it doesn't matter what the media prints or what the talking heads say.

My sentiment is based on my understanding of the current technical and fundamental conditions in a context of potential capital flow in the medium to long term.

I just so happen to agree with Jen's assessment of the general sentiment in the institutional world.

So are you thinking a slow chop down? Which is more likely a restest of the top or a continued move down to pre QE3 levels. I am a scalper so in part I am very tunnel vision to mostly previous day movement with knowledge of long term trends to be aware of. Knowing the general trend is always nice. Ithink the bottom will be no less than 1.2900 which was at QE3. Kind of full circle and then back up.
  • #55,383
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:10pm Sep 19, 2012 3:10pm
Quoting Vtmn
few shorts @1.3068
SL @1.3068, would like to see 1.2965 tomorrow
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #55,384
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:32pm Sep 19, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting Vtmn
SL @1.3068, would like to see 1.2965 tomorrow

short currently myself. Would be nice. As long as the market has large movements I don't care really. I like a lot of market movement in patterns. As a scalper it is much more profitable. Today was a very easy day.
  • #55,385
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:47pm Sep 19, 2012 3:47pm
There is on the main page of FF news the wsj article on
"Fat finger error caused oil stock price swings"
when clicked upon, the page that comes up for the full story has a podcast titled "Japanese Rear Admiral calls China's navy a big threat to se..."

I made several attempts to post the segment directly but it would not come up

Have no idea how long this podcast is available but it shows a different perspective to what is really going on between China and Japan.
Japan is unhappy with North Korea and this may be is spilling over into Chinese-Japanese relations.

Reserve currency redeployment is a powerful money flow, so ongoing tensions causing moves out of the USD by China would overide economic fundamentals as primary drivers of the USD for the near term. Price action is the only method i am aware of to trade off of, for getting S/R levels right when everything else gets skewed..

Made this post as an update, as yesterday the focus was on the East China Sea.
  • #55,386
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:49pm Sep 19, 2012 3:49pm
Quoting TRMZXT
So are you thinking a slow chop down? Which is more likely a restest of the top or a continued move down to pre QE3 levels. I am a scalper so in part I am very tunnel vision to mostly previous day movement with knowledge of long term trends to be aware of. Knowing the general trend is always nice. Ithink the bottom will be no less than 1.2900 which was at QE3. Kind of full circle and then back up.
That's where I have to disagree with you. QE3 did not start getting priced in at 1.2900 but rather at 1.2041

The move from 1.2041 to 1.2850/2900 was a combination of the anticipation (speculation) of QE3 and OMT

When OMT was officially announced, price stabilized at 1.2900 because it did not take the market by surprise due to leaks and hints about the plan all along.

The next day when the FOMC statement was actually released, the rally that ensued was solely based on the surprise that the purchases would be unlimited, and not that we actually got QE3.

So, to suggest that any retrace would be limited to 1.2900 because that's when QE3 was announced doesn't hold any validity in my opinion and I don't think the market sees it that way either.

Regardless, any fundamentally inspired retrace would not be based on a lack of confidence in the QE3 plan, but rather a lack of confidence in Europe.

From a strictly technical perspective, without an additional fundamental catalyst, or a significant retrace, current levels will offer tremendous resistance to price.

Anyway, that's my view. I could be wrong and it wouldn't be the first or the last time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,387
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:02pm Sep 19, 2012 4:02pm
Where the EURO/USD goes from here. Would expect the first test of the rising 200sma on the hourly to create a bump up in the pair. If selling comes in then the 1.3150 level may hold forming a triple top or something similar.
currently the 200 sma at 1.2957 So that level or above depending upon how long it takes for the price to intersect with the 200 should be a good gauge about the future for the EURO/USD
  • #55,388
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:37pm Sep 19, 2012 4:37pm
PT,

I don't know if this was asked already or not
With at least the three major currency having some kind of easing may it be limited or unlimited how do we rank which one has the biggest impact on the market
1) USD
2) JPY
3) Euro

with the euro and usd announcing last week or so the market as you said anticipated the easing from 1.20xx.
but with today's announcement with Japan q8 the impact felt was very small. I'm a little confused as I always thought Japan came second to USA.

if you have time to answer please do or i'll wait until you wake up later.


thanks,

G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #55,389
  • Edited 4:52pm Sep 19, 2012 4:41pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That's where I have to disagree with you. QE3 did not start getting priced in at 1.2900 but rather at 1.2041

The move from 1.2041 to 1.2850/2900 was a combination of the anticipation (speculation) of QE3 and OMT

When OMT was officially announced, price stabilized at 1.2900 because it did not take the market by surprise due to leaks and hints about the plan all along.

The next day when the FOMC statement was actually released, the rally that ensued was solely based on the surprise that the purchases would be unlimited, and not that we actually...

Oh I was not suggesting that was when the pricing came in. I totally agree with you on everything you said. My point is of WHEN QE3 was announced what price it was. Markets tend to react to price in relation to when news was released. My point is what was the price when it was announced tends to make the market to react to that price later. More mental than the reality of when the market started pricing in QE3. Good stuff as always.
  • #55,390
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:32pm Sep 19, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Ken its actually a number I get from a data service that I pay to have done(I get data for 22 pairs). It gives me some significant numbers that are derived from various mathematical calculations based on 8 technical indicators using historical supply/demand based Data.

the 1.3072 is a HUGE number on the Euro from a monthly/annual perspective(on par with the 1.2502/1.3728/ 1.4911). Draw some lines at those levels and look at ur charts scaling back and u will see what i mean.

The way I play the markets it is basically just price moving from...
Thanks.

I see the significance of that numbers. Let's see what will happen in Risk-On sessions.

PT prophecy might come true
  • #55,391
  • Edited 8:08pm Sep 19, 2012 7:45pm | Edited 8:08pm
Quoting foto
There is on the main page of FF news the wsj article on
"Fat finger error caused oil stock price swings"
when clicked upon, the page that comes up for the full story has a podcast titled "Japanese Rear Admiral calls China's navy a big threat to se..."

I made several attempts to post the segment directly but it would not come up

Have no idea how long this podcast is available but it shows a different perspective to what is really going on between China and Japan.
Japan is unhappy with North Korea and this may be is spilling over...
There's always something than what it seems on the surface more than Sino-US and the general public perceive. I don't think the people who are actually living there understand what's really going on. Maybe Panetta does.


Edit: I read the response from posters in other thread, they are entertaining nonetheless.
  • #55,392
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:29pm Sep 19, 2012 8:29pm
My questions to Kathy Lien this evening during a twitter open forum discussion;

@kathylienfx #FXCMExpo Do you see the Fiscal Cliff as a bigger threat to the E/U strength than Spain asking for aid (if and when they do)?

@CGB01 Nope. I think Fiscal Cliff will be dealt with bc risk of not doing so is too severe. Spain MUCH bigger risk for EURUSD

@kathylienfx #FXCMExpo Hmm, do you think Americans are prepared to take similar belt tightning measures as Spain/Greece to fix it the F/C?

@CGB01 Nope, we'll have Occupy Capitol Hill #FXCMExpo

(Side thought; This could explain why HomeLand Security ordered an additional 200 million rounds of ammo)

@kathylienfx #FXCMExpo Not clear on your CNBC direction on E/U this AM. Short at 1.2900 with SL at 1.3050. Meaning long above 1.3050?

@CGB01 Nope its EXACTLY what i said. If it BREAKS below 1.29, then you want to short with a stop at 1.3050 #FXCMExpo

@kathylienfx #FXCMExpo So you're bias is still long until break BELOW 1.2900?

@CGB01 YES #FXCMExpo

Take it for what it's worth

I posted this morning a bear flag formation on the hourly USDX chart. We now have another bear flag on the 15M. Bear flag within bear flag breakout. Let's see where this goes...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Sep19_2115.gif Size: 70 KB
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #55,393
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:39pm Sep 19, 2012 10:39pm
free fall @ EU.
  • #55,394
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:05pm Sep 19, 2012 11:05pm
Quoting rekon67
free fall @ EU.
Not only EU. Check equities.
  • #55,395
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:16pm Sep 19, 2012 11:16pm
Quoting Ken A
Not only EU. Check equities.
ya major sentiment move during Asia... It will be interesting to see if London keeps the party going or buys this up....

I cracked out a few shorts on the Aussie from the 1.0470/1.04390 area...

Waiting for a PA signal to get out

major support has been broken.... looking towards the 1.0351

Still good R:R on the EU to buy these levels...(till it CLOSES sub 1.3000)
  • #55,396
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:24pm Sep 19, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting Wulfgar
ya major sentiment move during Asia... It will be interesting to see if London keeps the party going or buys this up....

I cracked out a few shorts on the Aussie from the 1.0470/1.04390 area...

Waiting for a PA signal to get out

major support has been broken.... looking towards the 1.0351

Still good R:R on the EU to buy these levels...(till it CLOSES sub 1.3000)
I doubt London will as panics might follow. With the CB easing is transferring the problems to EZ and Asia. Maybe NY will otherwise this whole thing will backfire to US.
  • #55,397
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:27pm Sep 19, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting Ken A
I doubt London will as panics might follow. With the CB easing is transferring the problems to EZ and Asia. Maybe NY will otherwise this whole thing will backfire to US.
Hope so. It is taking demand from the Daily Support at the moment and previous day POC? If it resumes up then good for intraday trader like me
  • #55,398
  • Edited Sep 20, 2012 12:07am Sep 19, 2012 11:49pm | Edited Sep 20, 2012 12:07am
Quoting rekon67
Hope so. It is taking demand from the Daily Support at the moment and previous day POC? If it resumes up then good for intraday trader like me
Closed all the positions. Not willing to see the all the PIPS gone especially involving certain amount of $. Keep few small longs at BE. Expect NY will buy this up. The crash might look pretty bad for the coming election. Maybe London session will consolidate if not worse.

Edit: Miilions in India about to strike. What's it about?
  • #55,399
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:09am Sep 20, 2012 12:09am
Quoting Ken A
I doubt London will as panics might follow. With the CB easing is transferring the problems to EZ and Asia. Maybe NY will otherwise this whole thing will backfire to US.
Agreed... bought a bit at the 1.3

CTT rules.... Lock in quick w/o a hard momentum move... shorter TF's rolling over... we will see what asia does on the close and London on the open.... The 3008 needs a play next... the the 3015 opens the 3025/3033(may hold as resistance

Ill look to scale in or TP and flip at any of those numbers as I play for a larger retracement...
  • #55,400
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:12am Sep 20, 2012 12:12am
[quote=Ken A;6027129]
Edit: Miilions in India about to strike. What's it about?[/quote]

Today All India Strike. Reason Govt. has increased petrol prices RS. 5 INR per lt. Govt. has announced one household can only use 6 cooking gas cilinders per year. Household need to pay extra money on exceeding the usage. And some more craps like this.
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