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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #55,361
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:16am Sep 19, 2012 8:16am
Quoting TRMZXT
I think it could go back down and test 1.30
Heavey Demand already taken from 1.30 Level .. now it should aim higher to create Higher Highs. A failure on previous High could lead a down pressure. It is up for the day.
  • #55,362
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:18am Sep 19, 2012 8:18am
Quoting aeternum
Hmm, not sure if its long or short. Retracement + probable doji close and RSI divergence.

I'm placing some eggs in long TP 1.325 or so. Waiting for good entry.
I see convergence
  • #55,363
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:18am Sep 19, 2012 8:18am
Damn, another Rekon underwear
Attached Image
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  • #55,364
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:22am Sep 19, 2012 8:22am
Quoting Cgb
Damn, another Rekon underwear
I see it looks nice with POC
  • #55,365
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:32am Sep 19, 2012 8:32am
few shorts @1.3068
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  • #55,366
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:32am Sep 19, 2012 8:32am
2/3 of my short position closed at 1.3055 for 95 green pips, SL at BE 1.3150.. Long position still intact.

so for me the range is now set... 1.3150 high and 1.30 low (150 pips), unless we penetrate either high or low with a breakout filter of 25-30pips i will trade these highs and lows as a range.
Cheers!!
  • #55,367
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:41am Sep 19, 2012 8:41am
Quoting Wulfgar
Well looks like the 3072 area held firm...

My stops were hit ensuring small profits from my long positions....

Im expecting the market to channel here between the 1.3 and 1.3033

I am still buying with low risk until we close below the 1.3.... at which point Ill start selling rallys back towards the 1.3 and playing breakouts short...

R:R from here still favors longs IMHO(But ONLY with a proper PA setup)

GL guys

Wulf
nice setup... perfect market timing with NY coming on

I was asleep and didnt trade it...
  • #55,368
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:45am Sep 19, 2012 8:45am
Quoting Wulfgar
nice setup... perfect market timing with NY coming on

I was asleep and didnt trade it...
Wulf, what's with 1.3072? Always bounce from there.
  • #55,369
  • Sep 19, 2012 8:52am Sep 19, 2012 8:52am
Quoting PipsMaster23
2/3 of my short position closed at 1.3055 for 95 green pips, SL at BE 1.3150.. Long position still intact.

so for me the range is now set... 1.3150 high and 1.30 low (150 pips), unless we penetrate either high or low with a breakout filter of 25-30pips i will trade these highs and lows as a range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyEU.png Size: 20 KB
  • #55,370
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:21am Sep 19, 2012 9:21am
Quoting rekon67
Attachment
Is that a daily chart? The MAs don't make sense to me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,371
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:24am Sep 19, 2012 9:24am
Hi , been watching for a while now, and thought I introduce myself. I live at the bottom of africa 20 kms out of cape town in a suburb with a nice little harbour, called Hout bay ( wood bay) been trading for a couple of years, and now restrict myself to eurusd only
mostly 1hourly with input from dailey, weekly and monthly.
I find you guys are very well informed and know and understand far more than I do, i find your analysis very interresting.
I use the usual thecnical ideas. and have the usual battle with my mind.

Hi PT your question about the next target for the eurusd, I do think that the eur has been strengthening and the dollar's getting a bit softer, and the trend for the last month and a half has been up ish, dont know if this is just a small correction or not. so I'll go for long,, but reserve the right to change my mind at a moments notice.
all this means that it will probably wiggle sideways for a bit

Mike
  • #55,372
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:29am Sep 19, 2012 9:29am
Quoting mmikemj
Hi , been watching for a while now, and thought I introduce myself. I live at the bottom of africa 20 kms out of cape town in a suburb with a nice little harbour, called Hout bay ( wood bay) been trading for a couple of years, and now restrict myself to eurusd only
mostly 1hourly with input from dailey, weekly and monthly.
I find you guys are very well informed and know and understand far more than I do, i find your analysis very interresting.
I use the usual thecnical ideas. and have the usual battle with my mind.

Hi PT your question about...
Hi Mike,
Welcome here and thanks for your post. I think I've made my position quite clear on the Euro. The EZ is in very deep water and although the Euro may in fact get stronger, it is only an invitation into the spider web in my opinion. Anyway, it's all in my daily morning updates.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,373
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:33am Sep 19, 2012 9:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Is that a daily chart? The MAs don't make sense to me.
Hmm... I am trying best possible combinations.

TF: Weekly
200 SMMA on Close
55 EMA on Close

ADD: So far it is making sense to me

Attached Image
  • #55,374
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:37am Sep 19, 2012 9:37am
This is my view on the tight range we have for the Hourly chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1348072568

for sure on larger time frame will be different...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hourly Chart.JPG Size: 69 KB
Cheers!!
  • #55,375
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:38am Sep 19, 2012 9:38am
Quoting rekon67
Hmm... I am trying best possible combinations.

TF: Weekly
200 SMMA on Close
55 EMA on Close

ADD: So far it is making sense to me
Ahhh SMMA. Makes sense. Okay thanks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,376
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:42am Sep 19, 2012 9:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ahhh SMMA. Makes sense. Okay thanks
Edited for better explanation
  • #55,377
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:20am Sep 19, 2012 10:20am
Oil breaks $92.00
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  • #55,378
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:28am Sep 19, 2012 11:28am
Nomura's Jens Nordvik says...

In order to for us to project a substantially higher EUR/USD rate, we would need a combination of the following:

(a) a more convincing compression in eurozone risk premia,
(b) evidence that cyclical conditions in the eurozone are improving (i.e. growth is returning), and
(c) evidence that global capital flows are pointing to more persistent dollar selling.

We don’t see any of these conditions materializing in the coming months.



http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...euros-paradox/

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,379
  • Sep 19, 2012 12:39pm Sep 19, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting Ken A
Wulf, what's with 1.3072? Always bounce from there.
Ken its actually a number I get from a data service that I pay to have done(I get data for 22 pairs). It gives me some significant numbers that are derived from various mathematical calculations based on 8 technical indicators using historical supply/demand based Data.

the 1.3072 is a HUGE number on the Euro from a monthly/annual perspective(on par with the 1.2502/1.3728/ 1.4911). Draw some lines at those levels and look at ur charts scaling back and u will see what i mean.

The way I play the markets it is basically just price moving from one major channel to the next. these very significant areas are very well tested historically. With a good knowledge of price action and a keen eye on the news the numbers help me to design my trading strategies based on whatever TF I chose.


I cant personally take credit for the Numbers(I have my own too I get with Fibo's and stuff). The calculations are proprietary and i pay (a very small fee IMHO) for access to them. But they are golden and I give the guy who put them together all the praise in the world and thanks for sharing them. One of the few good guys out there in the FX world.

Wulf
  • #55,380
  • Sep 19, 2012 12:41pm Sep 19, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Nomura's Jens Nordvik says...

<B>

In order to for us to project a substantially higher EUR/USD rate, we would need a combination of the following:

</B>
[indent]
(a) a more convincing compression in eurozone risk premia,
(b) evidence that cyclical conditions in the eurozone are improving (i.e. growth is returning), and
(c) evidence that global capital flows are pointing to more persistent dollar selling.

[i][b]We don’t see any of these conditions materializing in the coming...

PT...I know you are dancing after that. lol I will say this though it seems it is ALWAYS something else besides the normal outlook a lot of times that pushes the market.
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