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EUR/CHF

  • #9,801
  • Sep 18, 2012 12:46pm Sep 18, 2012 12:46pm
Why do You "repeat" Your posts all the time? so far, your predictions haven't been accurate...
  • #9,802
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:03pm Sep 18, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting horrorschau
Why do You "repeat" Your posts all the time? so far, your predictions haven't been accurate...

I warned a lot Of traders would be wiped out in some brokers due to downside spikes for "lack" of liquidity, I predicted the floor break in April (from 1,2070 it was) and now I warn you that EURCHF value is below 1,20 and it consequently will return to 1,20 once this strong but exceptional euro buying pressure finishes. I have failed in predicting timing, but I Know what it's gonna happen (the floor lowered or removed and EURCHF clearly below 1,20
  • #9,803
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:26pm Sep 18, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting qatar
I warned a lot Of traders would be wiped out in some brokers due to downside spikes for "lack" of liquidity, I predicted the floor break in April (from 1,2070 it was) and now I warn you that EURCHF value is below 1,20 and it consequently will return to 1,20 once this strong but exceptional euro buying pressure finishes. I have failed in predicting timing, but I Know what it's gonna happen (the floor lowered or removed and EURCHF clearly below 1,20
Bullshit. You don't know what is going to happen. Floor will not break, peg will not be removed nor there will be any trading substatially below 1,20. Just sit back and relax as I do waiting to reload.
  • #9,804
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:09pm Sep 18, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting Long EUR-CHF
Bullshit. You don't know what is going to happen. Floor will not break, peg will not be removed nor there will be any trading substatially below 1,20. Just sit back and relax as I do waiting to reload.
I agree that in the short term the floor will not "break" against the will of the SNB, since EZ crisis is now easing. Even a Grexit could be mastered by SNB.

On the other hand, SNB cannot support the floor forever and accumulate risks forever. What shall they do when inflation comes back, the reals estate prices increase ever more while they sit on hundreds of billions forex? Or if their German Bunds go down and SNB's equity becomes negative? The risks could even come from a completely opposite scenario that investor loose trust in CHF because too much was printed.

So SNB needs to have an exit strategy. I'm surprised that no one here seems to care about a PPI m/m of +0.5%m although PPI is known as a leading indicator for CPI.
  • #9,805
  • Sep 18, 2012 6:41pm Sep 18, 2012 6:41pm
what do u think the reason that snb will lowered or removed the 1.20 peg?

If snb lower the peg , it will cause a lot of speculation of lowering again, the e/c will short large, i don't think snb will take that risk.

Remove the pegs seems more unlikely,check how many time snb officially state that the will stick to the peg . HongKong keeps the peg for decades. Snb could keeps the pegs unchange for probably till to when EZ recovery, which should be years from now.




Quoting qatar
I warned a lot Of traders would be wiped out in some brokers due to downside spikes for "lack" of liquidity, I predicted the floor break in April (from 1,2070 it was) and now I warn you that EURCHF value is below 1,20 and it consequently will return to 1,20 once this strong but exceptional euro buying pressure finishes. I have failed in predicting timing, but I Know what it's gonna happen (the floor lowered or removed and EURCHF clearly below 1,20
  • #9,806
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:31pm Sep 18, 2012 9:31pm
Christine Lagarde is the only person who has ever asked SNB to remove the peg (when necessary in future). All others incl finance minister, corporate figures etc in Switzerland, the Swiss people etc supports SNB with the peg.

So chances of peg removal in the near future is zero. No need to bet on peg removal - it won't happen. But in the future, say in 2,3 years, if it is going to happen, there will be clear predictable signs.

So in the meantime, sit back, relax & enjoy the profits of going long!
  • #9,807
  • Sep 19, 2012 1:39am Sep 19, 2012 1:39am
Quoting alaneth
Christine Lagarde is the only person who has ever asked SNB to remove the peg (when necessary in future). All others incl finance minister, corporate figures etc in Switzerland, the Swiss people etc supports SNB with the peg.

So chances of peg removal in the near future is zero. No need to bet on peg removal - it won't happen. But in the future, say in 2,3 years, if it is going to happen, there will be clear predictable signs.

So in the meantime, sit back, relax & enjoy the profits of going long!
Sure, SNB will tell us that they will remove the floor in one month so that we can all bet long on CHF and cash in billions :-;

Unless there is a significant increase of EUR/CHF SNB can't tell us more than that the floor is not forever.

The reason why I don't see a floor removal now is that SNB can hope to get out since EUR/CHF left the floor. For me this is related to good news for EZ in particular ECB and economical data in Italy.

By the way, German and EZ CPI is 2.6% y/y compared to CH CPI of -0.45% so the Purchase Power Parity gap is closing quickly over time.

So for me short time pressure on SNB is easing but long term risks are increasing, so I would not be surprised if SNB is working on possible exit scenarios.

This might include selling their forex, capital control measures, negative interest rates, introduction of the buffer for mortgages, or a change of the floor to include other currencies.
  • #9,808
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:00am Sep 19, 2012 4:00am
Quoting Long EUR-CHF
... Just sit back and relax as I do waiting to reload.
Unless you are a notorious shorter inducing the others to go long, now is the time to reload: current rate 1.2094
  • #9,809
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:29am Sep 19, 2012 4:29am
It will still go down further from 1.2094.
No solid reasons, just my instincts that people from EZ will not stop their flow into CH safe haven just abruptly. Just wait till next week's sight deposits figure. I don't think it will stagnate or reduce.
  • #9,810
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:06am Sep 19, 2012 9:06am
Im going to say this again..the peg will not break any time soon. If you follow the news over there or read any of the interviews with the SNB folk..it aint happening any time under present conditions..actaully..the peg could be on for at least another year or more. Thats a fact folks.

Second..if you hapen to have a broker that spikes well under the 1.20 floor all the time..get a new broker..use somebody reliable like thinkorswim (tdameritrade), Oanda, Optionsxpress or even forex.com. (i use all 4 for the last 12 years) The rest of them are bucket shops.

Third....FX has become even more unreliable with its trends the last 5 years due to all the crisis going on ..there was a time when you could actually hold a trade for months..sometimes years..no more..the volatility is insane with its ranges..this means trade whats in front of you..and be aware sentiment can change quickly.

I see too many people on here talking about things that mean nothing in fx....and this pair. Learn to trade this volatility..and with eur/chf no looking alive..and knowing that there is a floor you can trade against...well..there is no reason you should not be making alot of money on this pair.
  • #9,811
  • Edited 9:45am Sep 19, 2012 9:30am | Edited 9:45am
Im posting my current CHF Trade

Im building my position starting long 250000 at 1.2105 with 50:1 leverage. SL 1.1950

Im looking for a retest of 1.2180 Like my last trade, ill take profit depending on how the PA looks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur:chf.jpg Size: 258 KB
  • #9,812
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:49am Sep 19, 2012 9:49am
Snb have to defend 1.21 now or we go back to the abyss.
  • #9,813
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:49am Sep 19, 2012 9:49am
Quoting matheousse
Snb have to defend 1.21 now or we go back to the abyss.
they dont care about 1.2100
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #9,814
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:51am Sep 19, 2012 9:51am
so it was just a spike, we will return back to the floor
  • #9,815
  • Sep 19, 2012 9:53am Sep 19, 2012 9:53am
Quoting matheousse
so it was just a spike, we will return back to the floor
we moved up cuz eur got stronger..eurusd went up..if we go down eurchf will go too - to floor 1.2000 - i just WISH dat.lol
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #9,816
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:01am Sep 19, 2012 10:01am
Totally agree with you (last 2 posts) - EURCHF will definitely go down. It's just tracing the EUR.

Unlike the USD, US is just 1 country. Euro consists of many countries, & when 1 sneezes, the whole EUR will catch a cold & plunge down. So will EURCHF.
  • #9,817
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:23am Sep 19, 2012 10:23am
The Spanish 10 yr just went down to 5.6%...looks like this could be the support in the near term for the euro pairs.
  • #9,818
  • Sep 19, 2012 12:53pm Sep 19, 2012 12:53pm
Look at the 4hr chart --> S-H-S patern. Back to 1,2010?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF.png Size: 50 KB
  • #9,819
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:14pm Sep 19, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting Long EUR-CHF
Look at the 4hr chart --> S-H-S patern. Back to 1,2010?
Honestly..i love my charts too..but its going to move down only on a retracment before moving back up with the euro on a risk on rally. I have my opinions about levels...but I follow the feel of PA and sentiment in my trading decisions. Right now...in the here and now..eur/chf is alive..and will move in the direction of e/jpy, e/usd....until the CHF is thought of as a safe haven again and its flame blown out......again. But for now, ill watch these 3 charts for confirmation of trends.
  • #9,820
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:00am Sep 20, 2012 1:00am
Technical issues don' work on this pair, it must be about parity but Jordan held it for a year, with the hope of EZ problems recovery he tried to help it go up as baby walking, but out of uncertainty in EU the pair will go to 1.2070-1.2030-1.2010 and will stay there at least till year end, so 1-don' go long on this pair-2- if so hold for a better price and get patient enough.
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