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EUR/CHF

  • #9,781
  • Sep 14, 2012 3:00pm Sep 14, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
I don't think the Swiss would ever need to intervene in the U/CH. Over 70% of their trade is with members of the EZ, which is why the peg was even considered in the first place. It was killing their exports to their biggest trade partners.


http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/fdi/pdf/...talimporte.pdf
http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/fdi/pdf/...talexporte.pdf

We are a very big partner.....and it would be an issue if it got back to .70..its just something im putting out there.
  • #9,782
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:07pm Sep 14, 2012 4:07pm
juggernaut weekly close, happy weekend for everybody!
  • #9,783
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:54pm Sep 16, 2012 3:54pm
[email protected] is supported by the SNB
there is too much EUR in SNB
EUR is at a good price to sell bcs EZ problems are still there
Going Long on this pair at this price is not reasonable and going back to 1.2010 is highly probable.
  • #9,784
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:15pm Sep 16, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting holmes
[email protected] is supported by the SNB
there is too much EUR in SNB
EUR is at a good price to sell bcs EZ problems are still there
Going Long on this pair at this price is not reasonable and going back to 1.2010 is highly probable.
I agree with you. Even if all problems had disappeared, and the eurozone was now a perfect monetary union (never will), it could hardly go higher than 1,24 if EURUSD was at 1,50 and euro buying pressure was going to be extremely high. So profit to loss potential is barely 100%, and the probability of returning to 1,201 I would say that is around 90%. So a long position right now it has no sense.
  • #9,785
  • Sep 17, 2012 1:10am Sep 17, 2012 1:10am
For the moment I see a clear uptrend which is intact. I would be worried if it falls below 1,2115 and even than it would not mean that we will go back to 1,2010.
  • #9,786
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:20am Sep 17, 2012 2:20am
Deposits extended with 2,6bln
  • #9,787
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:21am Sep 17, 2012 2:21am
I think it will eventually go back down near 1.2050 levels by next month.

EURCHF is clearly trailing EURUSD. How long will the feel good sentiment on the EU will last? The uptrend stalls below 1.2200 and it can only go down from here, although it is going to be slow.
  • #9,788
  • Sep 17, 2012 4:45am Sep 17, 2012 4:45am
Interesting analysis of the latest SNB money supply data by George Dorgan from http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-weekly-monetary-data/

Look especially at the comments below the article!
  • #9,789
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:23am Sep 17, 2012 8:23am
The 13th time (h1) the price can't break the area around 1.2170... it's getting me mad...
  • #9,790
  • Sep 17, 2012 8:54am Sep 17, 2012 8:54am
I guess SNB is waiting 1.25 to start selling some euro
  • #9,791
  • Sep 17, 2012 9:16am Sep 17, 2012 9:16am
Quoting matheousse
I guess SNB is waiting 1.25 to start selling some euro
the question is if they wait, or help push to 1.25
  • #9,792
  • Sep 17, 2012 10:13am Sep 17, 2012 10:13am
Quoting horrorschau
The 13th time (h1) the price can't break the area around 1.2170... it's getting me mad...
It would not be strange that SNB is selling. Unfortunately, they would need hundreds of months with euro buying pressure to sell all euros they have
  • #9,793
  • Sep 17, 2012 1:10pm Sep 17, 2012 1:10pm
I dont expect much today on this pair..$ is rallying a tiny bit across the board. Looks to me like the market is taking a break after last week. 10 Yr on bunds and US Tres are what to watch for further hints of where we go next...hopefully we are just consolidating gains here before the next leg up. Im also watching eur/usd for further clues. If there is a further eur/usd correction, and eur/chf holds, I think we are in good shape.
  • #9,794
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:32am Sep 18, 2012 2:32am
EUR/CHF left the floor since more than a week.

Why is SNB still increasing the Sight deposits of domestic banks by 3,0b ?

1. They want to push the exchange rate away from the floor? If so why?
a. To install a higher floor?
b. To terminate the peg?
c. Because they are convinced that it is a good investment because EUR is undervalued?
d. For psychological reasons?

2. It has nothing to do with EUR?

What do you think?
  • #9,795
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:04am Sep 18, 2012 4:04am
See, I forecast this pair will drop eventually....

Now it's below 1.2113, low 1.2095...
  • #9,796
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:27am Sep 18, 2012 4:27am
Quoting didi_doedel
EUR/CHF left the floor since more than a week.

Why is SNB still increasing the Sight deposits of domestic banks by 3,0b ?

1. They want to push the exchange rate away from the floor? If so why?
a. To install a higher floor?
b. To terminate the peg?
c. Because they are convinced that it is a good investment because EUR is undervalued?
d. For psychological reasons?

2. It has nothing to do with EUR?

What do you think?
I go for 1d but the big money did not let them do it and we are now falling back to where all started: 1.2010..
  • #9,797
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:10am Sep 18, 2012 8:10am
SNB is selling euro and buying CHF, why its falling now?
  • #9,798
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:30am Sep 18, 2012 10:30am
Quoting didi_doedel
EUR/CHF left the floor since more than a week.

Why is SNB still increasing the Sight deposits of domestic banks by 3,0b ?

1. They want to push the exchange rate away from the floor? If so why?
a. To install a higher floor?
b. To terminate the peg?
c. Because they are convinced that it is a good investment because EUR is undervalued?
d. For psychological reasons?

2. It has nothing to do with EUR?

What do you think?
I choose 2. SNB is not intervening directly although sight deposits increase. EURCHF is just trailing or copying EURUSD's trend. When EURUSD falls, it will follow. Investors are feeling good with EUR and buying EUR, by shorting their other currencies incl USD and that also includes some CHF.
  • #9,799
  • Sep 18, 2012 11:17am Sep 18, 2012 11:17am
eur/usd is definitely the pair eur/chf is currently following..and the trend to currently watch. Im looking to rebuy.....not sure where yet.....im thinking the dji, spx want to correct downwards as well..and if we get risk off for a couple of days..we might see better levels to buy again. 1.21 looks like support...see if 1.30 holds for the euro...one thing for sure..this pair is alive again...question we all have is for how long.
  • #9,800
  • Sep 18, 2012 11:50am Sep 18, 2012 11:50am
SNB Is Not intervening at all. And EURCHF is finally in a downtrend to 1,201 or below. It will come back to the floor level to stay there, but I am not sure if it will fall sharply or gradually as January-April. Now I understand it will be a fast movement

And next month we will be below 1,20 as I was expecting before this slight uptrend due to huge euro buying pressure
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