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EUR/CHF

  • #9,761
  • Sep 14, 2012 7:22am Sep 14, 2012 7:22am
Quoting pipxster
Remember folks, Jim Oneill of Goldman has told us months ago that by the end of the year this pair will be between 1,3-1,4
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...25-715573.html
  • #9,762
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:30am Sep 14, 2012 8:30am
like any other pair..watch out for profit taking today...with the eur/usd on a monster run..i would not be surprised to see some profit taking towards the european close..which means a pull back in eur/chf..though minor......just something to watch for.
  • #9,763
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:07am Sep 14, 2012 9:07am
hopefully 1.2180 cracks soon.....
  • #9,764
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:03am Sep 14, 2012 10:03am
Quoting svtnick
hopefully 1.2180 cracks soon.....
Like ur statement.
  • #9,765
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:06am Sep 14, 2012 10:06am
There's a decoupling between EURUSD & EURCHF, because EURCHF cannot go more up. I hope that now, when EURUSD will consolidate, EURCHF will go back to 1,2010 easily
  • #9,766
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:14am Sep 14, 2012 10:14am
Quoting qatar
There's a decoupling between EURUSD & EURCHF, because EURCHF cannot go more up...
why not?
  • #9,767
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:27am Sep 14, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Igrach
why not?
Well, you can see it, SNB or other big players are distributing euros making impossible to go over 1,2175/80, even with fast movements of 70 pips in EURUSD
  • #9,768
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:33am Sep 14, 2012 10:33am
Quoting qatar
Well, you can see it, SNB or other big players are distributing euros making impossible to go over 1,2175/80, even with fast movements of 70 pips in EURUSD
But it isnt down at 1.20100 like you said in 70 hours.
  • #9,769
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:56am Sep 14, 2012 10:56am
Quoting brinks
But it isnt down at 1.20100 like you said in 70 hours.

The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent


Timing is very difficult, but as reality is going to be imposed, next week (or today, who knows) I believe we can fall to 1,2010/1,2020 in few minutes
  • #9,770
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:35am Sep 14, 2012 11:35am
Oanda shows open position ratios of their clients 56% long, 44% short now.

I've closed 90% of my trades by now (from 1.2010).

How about you guys?
  • #9,771
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:10pm Sep 14, 2012 12:10pm
lol guys im out hahaha guys i made it .... i sticked with it and made it YES!!! money!! now im stopping trading, for a while goodbye ladies and gentleman!! i need a vacation!
consistency wins
  • #9,772
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:51pm Sep 14, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting qatar
Well, you can see it, SNB or other big players are distributing euros making impossible to go over 1,2175/80, even with fast movements of 70 pips in EURUSD

Now EURCHF (below 1,2150) is falling faster than EURUSD. I expect the EURCHF to fall even with the EURUSD going up. SNB in action
  • #9,773
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:08pm Sep 14, 2012 1:08pm
i trader all the best! i made a good bit out of a low risk long in my opinion.

qatar i dont blame you for being a bear i wont be visiting this pair again until the floor is lifted.

good luck all.
  • #9,774
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:29pm Sep 14, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting qatar
There's a decoupling between EURUSD & EURCHF, because EURCHF cannot go more up. I hope that now, when EURUSD will consolidate, EURCHF will go back to 1,2010 easily
you need to go and look at the 4 hour chart for both..there is no decoupling on the current trend. Hope, by the way..does not make you money. Trade whats in front of you.
  • #9,775
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:44pm Sep 14, 2012 1:44pm
The Euro across the board has had a monster move. It is normal to see some profit taking on Friday. The close today is what matters most..and the PA that we see on the open on SUnday could be a tell for what we see for the rest of next week on this pair..if she goes quiet..then ill worry. But if you listen to the SNB and what their expectations are for the currency over the next 12 months..they see it weakening substantially..under current market conditions. If sentiment has really changed about Europe..and the pressure is off in the near term..we will see the eur/chf trend upwards until sentiment changes again...trends sometimes defy all logic..remember that...this could be the beginning of a trend for eur/chf..or it could be short lived because of some unseen catalyst yet to manifest itself in europe.

And oh yes..the floor will not be lifted..there is absolutely no hint of that yet.
  • #9,776
  • Sep 14, 2012 1:57pm Sep 14, 2012 1:57pm
Take a look at the daily of these 2 charts...i think what COULD happen..and is currently happening thanks to the US debasing its currency..is that these 2 charts have now reversed...i

I expect now for the eur/chf to rise and usd/chf to fall big time..and guess what..could we see the SNB intervene eventually on the usd/chf pair ???????? hmmmm .7040 here we come...... You heard it from me first.
  • #9,777
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:20pm Sep 14, 2012 2:20pm
Thinking about this some more..you need to realize something..Treasury yields for the first time in what seems like years...are rising / price falling with a rising stock market . This means to me anyway..real risk on for the time being .... If you look back a few years on your charts..before 2007..you will see currencys like the eur/jpy, eur/chf, usd/jpy all rising with rising markets in real risk on situations.(carry trades back then)...with rising yields....something to think about.

So watch your 10 year note for clues as to where we could go from here.
  • #9,778
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:34pm Sep 14, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting didi_doedel
Just before the peg on 05.09.2011:
EUR/CHF 1.11
EUR/USD 1.41

Now EUR/USD 1.29, i.e. EUR got weaker compared to 05.09.2011. Why would you expect EUR/CHF at 1.21 or 1.25? Rather without SNB interventions it would be around parity (1.11*1.21/1.41). So still some way to go for EUR/USD before EUR/CHF can go up.

The only effect of the EZ easing is that SNB at the moment needs less money to defend the floor.
Not a sound argument.

The year before that (Jan 2010), when the E/U was at 1.42, the E/CH was at 1.48.

It's not unrealistic to see the E/CH get back into the 1.30s to 1.40s without the SCB doing much more heavy lifting.

But is it likely? 60/40 is my guess. My bet is still open, and long.

Only time will tell.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #9,779
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:48pm Sep 14, 2012 2:48pm
October 2007 Before the Fall True Risk on

EUR/CHF 1.6827 DJI 14187 10 Year US Treasury 5.31%
EUR/JPY 167
USD/JPY 118


All we are missing for these pairs to rise again is yield.
  • #9,780
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:49pm Sep 14, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting svtnick
Take a look at the daily of these 2 charts...i think what COULD happen..and is currently happening thanks to the US debasing its currency..is that these 2 charts have now reversed...i

I expect now for the eur/chf to rise and usd/chf to fall big time..and guess what..could we see the SNB intervene eventually on the usd/chf pair ???????? hmmmm .7040 here we come...... You heard it from me first.

I don't think the Swiss would ever need to intervene in the U/CH. Over 70% of their trade is with members of the EZ, which is why the peg was even considered in the first place. It was killing their exports to their biggest trade partners.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
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