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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #54,721
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:48am Sep 14, 2012 5:48am
Quoting Halifax
IMO: London will put the top in and US will sell us back down to maybe 1.3.

Friday is profit taking day, I think
1.3094 is the Daily R2 resistnance, so you are probably bang on with that and the 1.3125/30 area is the 76.4 fib so this is a major resistance area......
  • #54,722
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:50am Sep 14, 2012 5:50am
Demand is limited to a point. But watching the upper trendline extension is scary indeed. And where is supply? above 1.32.
  • #54,723
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:53am Sep 14, 2012 5:53am
Monthly line chart prints pattern "Traders mind." from the first page of Euranalysis.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,724
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:53am Sep 14, 2012 5:53am
Quoting CommercialB
I find this topic really interesting...but just why exactly does rising US yields equate with rising USD/JPY? Is it because selling US bonds happens due to risk-on sentiment, a sentiment which also brings about a selling of safe haven Yen and so USD/Yen rises?
Well it's many factors. Capital flowing from Japanese safe havens (very low yield gov bonds) to higher yield. A little less USD flows than Yen flows also seeking higher yield. The net difference is that USD/JPY goes up. If this was a full QE3 with treasury purchases, then the USD would fall against the JPY.

Whilst the US gov bonds are selling off today, it is only in the context of the risk-on sentiment and not in the context of QE3 asset purchases. Although risk-on is in fact due to QE3, the relationship between QE3 and US treasury selling is an indirect one... again in the context of risk-on. In other words, as soon as we get bad data, the US bonds should start rallying again as safe haven flows come back. Under a QE3 program that purchases US treasuries, that would not necessarily be the case as the safe haven flows will be more likely to head to Canada and/or Japan as opposed to the US. Actually in this case when one considers the level of the USD/JPY being so close to intervention zone, and since the Fed is not buying US treasuries, I think the USD might get preference as a safe haven over the JPY. I guess we'll find out when bad data starts to surface... and it will.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,725
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:56am Sep 14, 2012 5:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's because I am long the pair

Okay seriously, it's most likely due to the fear of BOJ intervention. However, I truly am long at 77.16
My short start from 79.50, maybe they (he/she/it) will meet somewhere. I mean the currency.
  • #54,726
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:59am Sep 14, 2012 5:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well it's many factors. Capital flowing from Japanese safe havens (very low yield gov bonds) to higher yield. A little less USD flows than Yen flows also seeking higher yield. The net difference is that USD/JPY goes up. If this was a full QE3 with treasury purchases, then the USD would fall against the JPY.

Whilst the US gov bonds are selling off today, it is only in the context of the risk-on sentiment and not in the context of QE3 asset purchases. Although risk-on is in fact due to QE3, the relationship between QE3 and US treasury selling is...
Thank you sooo much for your time in explaining there PT, really eager to understand fundies better...gonna re-read & digest that for desert after my dinner later!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,727
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:02am Sep 14, 2012 6:02am
Come on! Top it in already!
69
  • #54,728
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:03am Sep 14, 2012 6:03am
Quoting CommercialB
Thank you sooo much for your time in explaining there PT, really eager to understand fundies better...gonna re-read & digest that for desert after my dinner later!
Cheers CB. If you have any more specific questions about it, don't hesitate to PM me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,729
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:17am Sep 14, 2012 6:17am
Quoting ohenry
The 38% fib level on the weekly @ 3146 taken from 1st May to 22nd July is where I anticipate this bull will ram it's horns before retracing. It also comes in line with the daily range of around 160 that she can easily achieve with a bee in her bonnet so lets see...I think I can hear her starting to huff n' puff....
So here she comes...lets see if she punches thru or begins her overdue retracement. Indications are ripe now: Daily Range exhausted Fri afternoon / US session sell off...lets see
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Click to Enlarge Name: weekly sept 2012.gif Size: 39 KB
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #54,730
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:17am Sep 14, 2012 6:17am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Monthly line chart prints pattern "Traders mind." from the first page of Euranalysis.
Yup, exactly!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,731
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:24am Sep 14, 2012 6:24am
Quoting ohenry
The 38% fib level on the weekly @ 3146 taken from 1st May to 22nd July is where I anticipate this bull will ram it's horns before retracing. It also comes in line with the daily range of around 160 that she can easily achieve with a bee in her bonnet so lets see...I think I can hear her starting to huff n' puff....
Quoting ohenry
So here she comes...lets see if she punches thru or begins her overdue retracement. Indications are ripe now: Daily Range exhausted Fri afternoon / US session sell off...lets see
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,732
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:25am Sep 14, 2012 6:25am
Quoting Cgb
Yup, exactly!
hahaha. yep. That's it exactly.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,733
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:28am Sep 14, 2012 6:28am
Fibo fan. One of possible ways to find a top in the sky. I have just turned on Pivots .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,734
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:28am Sep 14, 2012 6:28am
Where is that eurocrisis gone..!?
69
  • #54,735
  • Edited 6:32am Sep 14, 2012 6:31am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Likerty
Where is that eurocrisis gone..!?
It is still here, but currently "backed" up by 1 Tril of promises. But QE party is on, for the moment. On time to break last wave of ressistance.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,736
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:37am Sep 14, 2012 6:37am
The Euro crisis may be on the back burner for today, but with the introduction of QE3, now the risk-on/risk-off trade should be back in play.

So, here's the US econ event menu for this aft.
Good numbers = bullish
Bad number = bearish

or at least that is how it's supposed to work. We're about to find out a bit later.

Here's the menu. All time are GMT (London - 2 and New York + 4)

12:30 USD Core CPI m/m exp 0.2% vs 0.1%prior
12:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m exp 0.7% vs 0.8% prior
12:30 USD Retail Sales m/m exp 0.7% vs 0.8% prior
12:30 USD CPI m/m exp 0.5% vs 0.0% prior

13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate exp 79.3% vs 79.3% prior
13:15 USD Industrial Production m/m exp 0.1% vs 0.6% prior

13:55 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment exp 74.1 vs 74.3 prior

14:00 USD Business Inventories m/m exp 0.3% vs 0.1% prior

Good luck.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,737
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:41am Sep 14, 2012 6:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
The Euro crisis may be on the back burner for today, but with the introduction of QE3, now the risk-on/risk-off trade should be back in play.

So, here's the US econ event menu for this aft.
Good numbers = bullish
Bad number = bearish
You mean USD or EU pair?
69
  • #54,738
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:42am Sep 14, 2012 6:42am
H4 double divergence. I'm short EU 1.3105. The weekly candle seems also long enough. Maybe it's time for a retracement. The market price has touched exactly the 38.2 monthly just now.
  • #54,739
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:42am Sep 14, 2012 6:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
This Axel Merk article is an expanded copy of what I posted here last week. Pure and simple plagiarism.
That article was not your article or my article. I only posted it in order to offer my opinion on what happened yesterday. I really do not understand what you are angry about. With respect you have started to change your approach to fairness on this thread. There is the beginning of a fan club atmosphere here. You could have send me a PM however you chose to do it this way regardless of your point being valid or not.

I sincerely regret needing to post this reply however I am too wise to be angry with you. I am surely bothered by this situation. I would appreciate one reply to this post of mine and I also would ask kindly if no other person posts on this topic as it will distract everyone.

I have continued to post here because many posters send me PM's in order to encourage me since they find my comments useful. Up until today I felt at home here. I will await your respected reply before I think about what I want to do.

I thank you for starting this excellent thread on September 25, 2011 and regardless of my decision I am glad that I was able to post here.

CurrencyMan AKA Human Being
  • #54,740
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:43am Sep 14, 2012 6:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
The Euro crisis may be on the back burner for today, but with the introduction of QE3, now the risk-on/risk-off trade should be back in play.

So, here's the US econ event menu for this aft.
Good numbers = bullish
Bad number = bearish

or at least that is how it's supposed to work. We're about to find out a bit later.

Here's the menu. All time are GMT (London - 2 and New York + 4)

12:30 USD Core CPI m/m exp 0.2% vs 0.1% prior
12:30 USD Core Retail Sales m/m exp 0.7% vs 0.8% prior
12:30 USD Retail Sales m/m exp 0.7% vs 0.8% prior
12:30 USD...
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