EurAnalysis

man my OJ is just gettin more and more expensive

Thanks for the words of encouragement bro. I hope to see you back trading live soon.

Yep. Not that it makes much difference in my trading, but I am a PADI certified diver

I officially have no idea what it wants to do from here on. Expecting a retracement yet.. it refuses to.

Thanks for posting the link Greenstar.
Also thank you for your nice comments regarding this thread. The credit goes to everyone who contributes here in a spirit of sharing... and that includes you.

Perhaps best to sit it out and see. Until I see a clear exhaustion signal and signs of a reversal, I'm strapping my hands to my office chair's armrests other than for the purpose of posting here and sipping my very expensive orange juice

1.3060-80 area is first which I see as a test. And am sure there are sale orders lined up.

I will be in time..I am in no rush.... just fine tuning my system and building my account.... If i can swing together a few good swings in addition to my intraday work then Ill get there a bit quicker...

Pt, u misread draghi,in the sense u become too emotional at that time,may be sisse,has some valid point.i still dont like to fight CB chiefs particularly when he is new and trying to establish his authority.if we combine last 5 months candles what we have here is just a single multii month big spike candle.

Still underwater I see a new trendline here. May touch 1.305 or so. But honestly I don't know.

Hey Doc... Welcome back.

Yes you are correct. I have underestimated the power of the CB chief's words on market sentiment. Not only Bernanke, but as you said, Draghi also.

Still, despite the CB interventions, whether verbal or tangible, it seems to me that all the CBs are getting involved in easing monetary policy. If they all do it, then it all evens out. Another thing to consider is that if the Fed launched such an aggressive program, what does that say about the economic outlook?

Thanks for your post Doc. We missed you here.

This should give us some hope.

price is now retesting the underside of the lifetime 38.2% fibo on the monthly chart. Probably it will press a bit above it but should close the month at or below. I know it's not much comfort for intraday purposes, but in my experience, when price reaches the 50% fibo is smooth markets (which the monthly always is), it often retraces back to 38.2 before continuing on to 61.8. So if this area holds, we are still long term bearish.

E/U Monthly

I was looking to find a way to make the explanation of what the FED did yesterday more understandable.

I found this excellent Axel G Merk article that gives a great and accurate explanation. I will copy and paste it and then offer my thoughts on the probable future. That future being until December 31, 2012.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...worry-be-happy

May we suggest a Twitter version of today's FOMC statement: "Don't worry, be happy!" – No, the economic outlook hasn't improved. In fact, the Fed may want you to take a valium to stomach the ride ahead. Alternatively, if you don't get mollified by the Fed's "communication strategy", you may want to consider taking action to protect the purchasing power of your hard earned dollars.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...toon-color.jpg

Here's the challenge: the Federal Reserve (Fed) wants to keep interest rates low across the yield curve (from short-term to long-term rates) to aid the economic recovery. But good economic data might send the bond market into a tailspin, i.e. raise long-term rates and thus cause massive headwinds to the economic recovery. We got a taste of how quickly the bond market can sell off earlier this year when the economy appeared to pick up some steam. Higher interest rates would further encourage the major deleveraging that market forces still warrant, not a desirable scenario from our understanding of Fed Chairman Bernanke's thinking.

Engaging in further rounds of asset purchases ( "QE3", "QEn+1") may alleviate some of those upward pressures on interest rates, but the moment a program is announced, the market prices it in and looks ahead, threatening to mitigate any lasting impact of QEn+1. Picture the Fed as trying to hold a carrot in front of the donkey, well, market, to make us believe another stimulus is coming, without actually giving it. That way, the Fed can print less money to achieve its goals. The Fed calls it communication strategy.

Some have suggested a more open-ended approach to asset purchases. But that would likely come with some sort of guidance as to when to stop it, such as when a certain level of unemployment or nominal growth is reached. Given that everything Bernanke has done has been signaled well ahead of time (the blogosphere is full of the "best kept secret", the likelihood of more QE), introducing a completely new concept is rather un-Bernanke-ish. You may not agree with Bernanke, but as an investor please don't act surprised.

In recently released FOMC minutes, the Fed tells us that it might communicate to the market that rates may remain low even as the economy recovers. Bingo! We have long argued that Bernanke considered the early monetary tightening during the Great Depression as a grave mistake, as it undid all the "progress" that had been achieved. But more to the point, the Fed needs to get our attention away from the economy. By keeping the link to the economy, the Fed will always struggle to keep the upper hand on the bond market. So forget about the carrot: we need valium, not carrots. By communicating with the market that rates will remain low independent of how the economy might perform, the bond market just might not be selling off as aggressively as economic growth picks up.

That's exactly the path we believe the Fed is going to go down. It will be interesting, however, to see what the Fed's explanation will be. We doubt they will use the valium analogy. Some Fed watchers would like to see a nominal GDP target or something similar, but don't bet your donkey on Bernanke going that far.

The basic challenge is – and we are interpreting here as we don't think the Fed or any central banker in office would ever frame it this way: the Fed wants to have inflation, wants to move the price level higher to bail out home owners, wants to push up nominal wages, and wants to push up nominal GDP to make the debt burden more bearable. But the Fed doesn't want the market to price in inflation, as that would push interest rates up.
That's why we may be heading ever more into the "Land of Make-Believe." But as investors enjoy their valium, the U.S. dollar is at risk of melting away under their feet. Drugged up, we are too busy laughing at Greece and doling out advice to Europe to notice that our "don't worry, be happy" approach might lead to rather unhappy purchasing power. If you think you are above the fray, let me just ask whether you have watched the euro in recent months? As of late, that perceived weakling of a currency appears to be giving the greenback a run for its money. We are not suggesting that investors dump their U.S. dollars and exchange them all for euros. However, we would like to encourage investors to consider embracing currency risk, for example through a managed basket of currencies, as a way to manage the risk posed to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. Adding currency exposure to a portfolio may have valuable diversification benefits.

Source: Merk Funds

CurrencyMan:

For those here that trade EUR/USD all we are concerned about is which way is the Euro going ? When is the Euro going down ? How do we make money ?

The first thing to do is throw away all your opinions on direction so that you have a clear mind with no bias.

The World is now in a race to the bottom with regard to fiat currencies.

In the past 5000 years every currency eventually lost all of the value it had.

The last 100 years has led to a different scenario because of Breton Woods after the second world war. The creation of the FEDERAL RESERVE on December 23, 1913 and the creation of the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world tied the world together.

The creation of the Euro and the change in the status of China through political means when China was invited into the commercial world in the days of Nixon. Richard Milhous Nixon also started the beginning of the end by his action on August 15, 1971 when the US Dollar was decoupled from Gold.

We then move to 1999 when Larry Summers lead the USA to end Glass Steagel which came into being in 1933 after the great depression following the stock market collapse of 1929.

We can now see that this lead to the bankruptcy of Lehman during 2008 and the real start in the MELTDOWN of ALL Currencies.

The Central banks of the world with the clear INTERVENTION of the FEDERAL RESERVE have been destructive with regard to the fiat currencies.

Thanks to contrarian analysts and economists and the INTERNET many more people now understand this INSANE PONZI GAME.

Do not forget the probable breakdown of the Euro and the extremely serious debt problem in the USA. After the US elections on Tuesday November 6, 2012 things will start to go downhill.

In the meantime we all need time to observe and watch all events including Political ones such as the Iran matter and the conflict in Syria putting China and Russia on one side and the USA on the other.

I hope my post is helpful in giving posters here an overview of what will be in front of us and our Global World.

Good Morning and Good Trading.

Well, that's exactly what happened. The thing i didn't like

Bernanke does serve a credit for being able to manipulate the markets again. After all, the sole idea of his actions is to avoid a stock market collapse. I knew it would've been too easy for the market participants if there were to come nothing from the FED.

Benny is not born yesterday. He pursues confidence and that is linked with stock market health. Just as i mentioned earlier Ben is putting a backstop to any major dive in equity markets. Ben needs to deliver mixed to positive actions as long as the economic activity picks to a sustainable level. Whether or not he's gonna achieve that through those actions is another story.

So, what did Ben actually say yesterday that were the hammer to the dollar ?

The so called open endedness of the asset purchase programs. But what does that really mean ? If you think about it, can you really say that any of the previous programs have been CLOSE ended ? In the grand scheme of things, No. Asset purchases didn't stop with QE1 and they didn't stop with QE2. And QE3 will still end in a few months. After which they start to "evaluate" the econ situation again. They are not going to do hard core month-to-month QE till unemployment hits 5%.

That open endedness speech yesterday was a mere manipulative communication tool...AGAIN.

So, in the end, a pretty crafty action. Little QE, a lot of communication and hype. And it's working.

"QE without the REAL QE"

QE Fake... Kind of like Windows ME

This Axel Merk article is an expanded copy of what I posted here last week. Pure and simple plagiarism.

Ha Ha ... people like finding out the same answer from different sources, and forget about the first person who already said so

interestingly enough, USDJPY is at the FOMC news highs. Am i missing smth or is the financial world gone mad ?

That's because I am long the pair

Okay seriously, it's most likely due to the fear of BOJ intervention. However, I truly am long at 77.16

I guess I'm guilty of that too