CCI 20 is good to push it for another hundred or few hundred pips. Though I would like to see how 1.3060, 1.3080 and 1.3120 plays.
- #54,641
- Sep 13, 2012 8:58pm Sep 13, 2012 8:58pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #54,642
- Sep 13, 2012 11:32pm Sep 13, 2012 11:32pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
We got some serious momentum... If this huge supply holds.... we are due for a decent retracement.... If not then Im Buying high once again on the major breakout....
currently long from 1.2868/1.2902/1.2925/1.2950/1.2960
also long the aussie from 1.0500 through 1.0535 with a few legs...
I was busy buying risk like an idiot after the FOMC statement
still pounding away at the buy buttons...
gotta keep making my fake demo money so I can reload my accnt and trade for real again
- #54,643
- Sep 13, 2012 11:52pm Sep 13, 2012 11:52pm
Btw, I have closed even "Lucky". My favourite short from 38437. +880 pips.
Probably time to close down longs and go short again.
Student of the Markets
- #54,645
- Sep 14, 2012 12:12am Sep 14, 2012 12:12am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
- #54,647
- Sep 14, 2012 12:29am Sep 14, 2012 12:29am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #54,648
- Sep 14, 2012 12:32am Sep 14, 2012 12:32am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
As I see it, it's pretty simple really. The euro-positive news is OUT. The market has been pricing in the Fed action for the last week or so. No surprise there really. The ECB has announced its OMT. So the EC is willing to help struggling economies, with conditionality. Sound familiar?
I'm thinking consolidation now, or possibly reversal. But this latest one-way market is over for now.
Watching PA on the numbers to continue to leg in short with minimal risk as we carve out a retracement and/or a new channel...
- #54,649
- Sep 14, 2012 1:37am Sep 14, 2012 1:37am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning all
Well the Fed has gone ahead and charted the future value of the USD in a downward direction. Dollar weakness across the board is evident and will probably continue for a little while.
So here's the summary of what the FOMC has announced.
1. The Fed will purchase MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) in the amount of $40 billion per month through the end of the year
2. The Fed will continue to re-invest maturing treasury and MBS paper back into MBS through to the end of the year
3. The Fed has changed its forward guidance for low rates from late 2014 to mid 2015
4. The Fed will review the impact of such action in January 2013 and may adjust amounts as required, but this program is open ended and tied to targeted unemployment and price stability.
So there we have it. Open ended QE with a 2% inflation and full employment target with no pre-commitment of time or amounts. This pretty much puts to bed the whole question of "What will happen when the program ends?" because there simply is no end.
I don't agree with such a move, but unfortunately I have no say in what the Fed does and at the end of the day, I am here to trade and be profitable... not to protest what the "Men in charge" can and cannot do.
So where do we go from here? Well it's not an easy question to answer. There is much hype surrounding this decision, but it may already be mostly priced in. We've had 4 solid weeks of rallies with no significant pullbacks, so the technicals are very stretched. There is still lots of unfinished business below all the way down to 1.2440. This does not mean that price has to go down there before it can push higher, but I submit that at some point soon we will be visiting those levels again.
The issues in Europe are far from over. Furthermore, China still has its share of problems also... and let's not forget that the reason the FOMC launched QE3 is because things aren't that rosy in the US either (although better than Europe). So now, as economic data is released, there are going to be times when the numbers fail to meet market expectations. It is in those times that we shall see the much needed corrections that will relieve the stretched technicals. In essence the market reaction to economic and political events will once again be appropriate where the markets will rally on good news and sell off on bad news in the almost forgotten risk-on/risk-off paradigm.
I am still sitting on my hands right now as I want to see what European trade does today. It is Friday, the SP500 index is at a new 5 year high, the Euro has rallied without correction and the USD is due for some relief from all the bashing it has endured. Therefore I do anticipate some profit taking into the close especially considering that we have EuroGroup meetings this weekend and most likely some will not want to be holding onto too much risk going into that.
Best of luck today and remember to trade safe. Leverage Kills.
E/U Daily
Well the Fed has gone ahead and charted the future value of the USD in a downward direction. Dollar weakness across the board is evident and will probably continue for a little while.
So here's the summary of what the FOMC has announced.
1. The Fed will purchase MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) in the amount of $40 billion per month through the end of the year
2. The Fed will continue to re-invest maturing treasury and MBS paper back into MBS through to the end of the year
3. The Fed has changed its forward guidance for low rates from late 2014 to mid 2015
4. The Fed will review the impact of such action in January 2013 and may adjust amounts as required, but this program is open ended and tied to targeted unemployment and price stability.
So there we have it. Open ended QE with a 2% inflation and full employment target with no pre-commitment of time or amounts. This pretty much puts to bed the whole question of "What will happen when the program ends?" because there simply is no end.
I don't agree with such a move, but unfortunately I have no say in what the Fed does and at the end of the day, I am here to trade and be profitable... not to protest what the "Men in charge" can and cannot do.
So where do we go from here? Well it's not an easy question to answer. There is much hype surrounding this decision, but it may already be mostly priced in. We've had 4 solid weeks of rallies with no significant pullbacks, so the technicals are very stretched. There is still lots of unfinished business below all the way down to 1.2440. This does not mean that price has to go down there before it can push higher, but I submit that at some point soon we will be visiting those levels again.
The issues in Europe are far from over. Furthermore, China still has its share of problems also... and let's not forget that the reason the FOMC launched QE3 is because things aren't that rosy in the US either (although better than Europe). So now, as economic data is released, there are going to be times when the numbers fail to meet market expectations. It is in those times that we shall see the much needed corrections that will relieve the stretched technicals. In essence the market reaction to economic and political events will once again be appropriate where the markets will rally on good news and sell off on bad news in the almost forgotten risk-on/risk-off paradigm.
I am still sitting on my hands right now as I want to see what European trade does today. It is Friday, the SP500 index is at a new 5 year high, the Euro has rallied without correction and the USD is due for some relief from all the bashing it has endured. Therefore I do anticipate some profit taking into the close especially considering that we have EuroGroup meetings this weekend and most likely some will not want to be holding onto too much risk going into that.
Best of luck today and remember to trade safe. Leverage Kills.
E/U Daily
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #54,651
- Sep 14, 2012 1:50am Sep 14, 2012 1:50am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
- #54,652
- Sep 14, 2012 1:52am Sep 14, 2012 1:52am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #54,653
- Sep 14, 2012 1:53am Sep 14, 2012 1:53am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #54,655
- Sep 14, 2012 2:01am Sep 14, 2012 2:01am
Morning Henry, Yep I got loads of oxygen left. Thank heavens for my low leverage rule, otherwise I'd be devastated right now. Amazingly enough I am still in the green. However, I'm still disappointed. Not so much because I've been shorting this pair, but rather because I mis-read the whole QE3 thing. I really need to brush up on what the Fed is capable of doing. Anyway, all is good. At the very least, I got a good education out of it.
1st rule on a deep dive conserve ur air ...breath slow & deep.. Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
- #54,656
- Sep 14, 2012 2:02am Sep 14, 2012 2:02am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #54,657
- Sep 14, 2012 2:04am Sep 14, 2012 2:04am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #54,658
- Sep 14, 2012 2:05am Sep 14, 2012 2:05am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
Good morning all
Well the Fed has gone ahead and charted the future value of the USD in a downward direction. Dollar weakness across the board is evident and will probably continue for a little while.
So here's the summary of what the FOMC has announced.
1. The Fed will purchase MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) in the amount of $40 billion per month through the end of the year
2. The Fed will continue to re-invest maturing treasury and MBS paper back into MBS through to the end of the year
3. The Fed has changed its forward guidance for low...
thanks PT... great stuff my man. Its good to be able to get all that out of ur head on paper too and it is good that you learned from the experience.
We all need to play our hand and lay our ht on something and you being unwavering in ur methodology is a good lesson to any trader.
- #54,659
- Sep 14, 2012 2:06am Sep 14, 2012 2:06am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Clearly a very risk-on sentiment
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #54,660
- Sep 14, 2012 2:06am Sep 14, 2012 2:06am
The 38% fib level on the weekly @ 3146 taken from 1st May to 22nd July is where I anticipate this bull will ram it's horns before retracing. It also comes in line with the daily range of around 160 that she can easily achieve with a bee in her bonnet so lets see...I think I can hear her starting to huff n' puff....
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.