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  • #321
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:11pm Sep 11, 2012 7:11pm
Hi Split, I'm looking at NTRS. It seems to be bouncing off the $ 48 inside a triangle, and is about to define if it continues rising or not.

Watching the fundies, it seems to have very good values ​​compare to the industry average, but there are 2 or 3 indicators that aren't so good and I raise questions. Please, could you help me to interpret this information?

Thanks.

Greg.
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  • #322
  • Sep 11, 2012 8:48pm Sep 11, 2012 8:48pm
Looking at the Industrial Goods sector, found that ATI seems to have formed a channel base, and I'm waiting the right moment to enter a long swing.

The fundamentals are good, but seems to have little liquidity, which could be due to the cancellation of debt (it has very little debt).

ATI has to break a very strong TL, but I think this can be given if it is powered by XLI.

XLI is rising in a bullish channel and appears ready to test for the third time the resistance of the larger triangle.

It would be nice if ATI breaks the channel and XLI breaks the triangle, then I would enter long.

What do you think?

Greg.
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  • #323
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:36am Sep 13, 2012 2:36am
Quoting gregofx
Looking at the Industrial Goods sector, found that ATI seems to have formed a channel base, and I'm waiting the right moment to enter a long swing.

The fundamentals are good, but seems to have little liquidity, which could be due to the cancellation of debt (it has very little debt).

ATI has to break a very strong TL, but I think this can be given if it is powered by XLI.

XLI is rising in a bullish channel and appears ready to test for the third time the resistance of the larger triangle.

It would be nice if ATI breaks the channel...
Hi Greg,

Its really good that you started to include the sectors/industries of the stocks you trade into your analysis, it will surely help you. Some of the stocks you picked have cool technical patterns that can pop higher, anything is possible. However, I don't understand how those fundamentals are attractive or how they resemble the fundamentals on the stocks I wrote about.

Split
  • #324
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:19am Sep 13, 2012 9:19am
Quoting split_unit
Here's the fundamentals.
There goes DISCA...

P.S. Everything went north...this ain't magic
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  • #325
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:34am Sep 13, 2012 9:34am
Quoting split_unit
Heres a chart of MA and it speaks a thousand words!
In case you didn't catch this earlier when I posted, you still have another chance. MA is setting itself up for a beautiful breakout!
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  • #326
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:25pm Sep 13, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting split_unit
In case you didn't catch this earlier when I posted, you still have another chance. MA is setting itself up for a beautiful breakout!
Okay...the $448 level has also been breached...lol, wait for the pullback now...
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  • #327
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:55pm Sep 13, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting split_unit
I focus on all asset classes and mostly the classes that are moving or about to move. Gold is currently in play and that is why I was active in the XAU/USD thread. I was quite about gold when there was nothing to do, I find gold attractive at the moment at these prices, especially given with the technical's playing out the way they did. When gold does, well gold mining stocks tend to perform strong, a good example would be GG which is on the verge of a breakout along with its industry ETF the gold miners GDX.

Further analysis on gold and its...
There goes GG and GDX and SLW...
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  • #328
  • Sep 13, 2012 4:16pm Sep 13, 2012 4:16pm
I know that everything in the equities universe looks like its heading north right now, but before you advice your grandmother to invest, I would advice caution. The most important chart for equities traders, the S&P 500 has hit resistance. The long trade north is crowded, big Ben has already announced Q.E 3 and that news will soon be old, the SPY (S&P500 ETF) has also hit resistance.

Of course the ramifications of Q.E 3 will have the deepest impact on the GDX, XOP, XHB, HYG, LQD, XME and VNQ industries.

Caution is advised, if you wanted to enter right now, I would recommend you wait a little

Split
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  • #329
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:35am Sep 14, 2012 9:35am
Entered WFC long!!!


Quoting split_unit
Here is one stock that is lining up perfectly, almost too perfect to be true.

The stock is also backed up fundamentally as the grand daddy of stock investment, Warren Buffet has invested in it!!!
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  • #330
  • Sep 14, 2012 3:00pm Sep 14, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting gregofx
Entered WFC long!!!
Hey Greg!

Yeah WFC was an awesome stock and is still an awesome stock. I would be careful though, mainly for the technical reasons I wrote about in my last post, the SPY is overdue for a pullback and that should slow down everything.
  • #331
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:16am Sep 27, 2012 12:16am
Quoting split_unit
I know that everything in the equities universe looks like its heading north right now, but before you advice your grandmother to invest, I would advice caution. The most important chart for equities traders, the S&P 500 has hit resistance. The long trade north is crowded, big Ben has already announced Q.E 3 and that news will soon be old, the SPY (S&P500 ETF) has also hit resistance.

Of course the ramifications of Q.E 3 will have the deepest impact on the GDX, XOP, XHB, HYG, LQD, XME and VNQ industries.

Caution is advised, if you wanted...
The day after I wrote this post was the recent top to this current pullback, I have also stopped posting setups because non are occurring which brings me to the next point, there ISN'T something to do in the market ALL THE TIME! When the market becomes less favorable, it is best to step aside. Failing to recognize this point is one thing that separates the pros the from the amateurs.

Paraphrasing Soros – "You go to work every day thinking that you have to do something. As a result, you often do stupid things out of boredome, when you would be better off just sitting on your hands. I go to work only when there is something to do, only when it is worth doing so. As a result, I have learned to distinguish the important from the ordinary days and I know when to put the extra effort".

A pull back like this will mean different things for different traders, a long term investor might identify this move as a buying opportunity to add to his core position, a day trader might choose to sit this move out due to the choppy market environment, the same applies for a swing trader who might wait for a technical pattern to represent itself before entering a trade. These traders know what they want and know when to get it, it is imperative that you identify what your setups are and then only trade those setups. Trading just for the sake of trading out of being bored is a sure recipe for disaster.

Split
  • #332
  • Sep 27, 2012 10:43am Sep 27, 2012 10:43am
something which worries me about the movement of gold:
in the last weeks more and more people are asking me about an investment in gold. these people never did investments in stocks, commodities etc and have absolutely no clue about any investments at all. it reminds me of the year 2000 when every housewife was buying stocks. for me it is the same situation. when everybody is holding / buying gold, how can it move higher?
this is just my personal view. but i am really awaiting a huge drop in gold... the bubble will burst very soon.
aserbfx 27.09.12
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #333
  • Sep 27, 2012 12:00pm Sep 27, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting aserbfx
something which worries me about the movement of gold:
in the last weeks more and more people are asking me about an investment in gold. these people never did investments in stocks, commodities etc and have absolutely no clue about any investments at all. it reminds me of the year 2000 when every housewife was buying stocks. for me it is the same situation. when everybody is holding / buying gold, how can it move higher?
this is just my personal view. but i am really awaiting a huge drop in gold... the bubble will burst very soon.
aserbfx 27.09.12...
Hey aserbfx!

Nice of you to pass by and post your testament here. I do agree with you that gold is the ultimate bubble but I beg to differ on the timing, I don't expect the bubble to bust now. My main reasons are:


I wrote this article back in May, some points worked out and some didn't. The one that worked out was my thesis on China, the Shanghai composite continues to make new lows while the AUD/USD is strong. I watched the move with great skepticism awaiting an imminent crash in the AUD/USD that eventually didn't occur. I based my analysis on the simple assumption that if demand from china went down then the AUD/USD would go down with it due to the sensitivity of the pair to China. What actually happened was this. Foreign direct investment into Australian mines increased creating demand for the currency and keeping it afloat. The article in detail can be found here. If the AUD remains strong, take it as an indicator that gold is also strong.

2- Supply of gold on earth is limited unlike the unlimited capability of banks to print. Gold is a commodity that can be used for exchange in times of uncertainty. Almost all the major central banks with a printing capability have started excessive printing, this should create demand for all commodities. ESPECIALLY GOLD!

3-Gold miners (GDX) should have collapsed after the breakdown on April the 4th 2012, but that didn't happen, we saw buying come in at the bottom on above average volume, followed by a double bottom and a base. The base was taken out on September the 6th just as the banks started printing.

4- Gold itself had a golden opportunity to head south at the end of May but didn't. A retest of the 1925.00 level now looks imminent.

5- Money is flowing into all precious metals, look at silver, that charts speaks a thousand words.

6- Confidence by investors in global governments is waning, an upcoming economical collapse in Europe, the fiscal cliff in the USA, a hard landing along with political tensions in China, Iran and a possible war which could send oil flying are some of the other reasons scared investors money is flowing into gold. Oh, and in case my point on China weren't clear, take a look at this.

These are a few reasons I think gold will go up, course plenty of other reasons can be found. Is gold a bubble? Yes it is? Is it going to blow someday? Sure, it will but not before testing its highs as a minimum target.

(Disclosure: I am still long gold miners like SLW while adding to previous positions)
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  • #334
  • Sep 29, 2012 10:31am Sep 29, 2012 10:31am
Quoting aserbfx
something which worries me about the movement of gold:
in the last weeks more and more people are asking me about an investment in gold. these people never did investments in stocks, commodities etc and have absolutely no clue about any investments at all. it reminds me of the year 2000 when every housewife was buying stocks. for me it is the same situation. when everybody is holding / buying gold, how can it move higher?
this is just my personal view. but i am really awaiting a huge drop in gold... the bubble will burst very soon.
aserbfx 27.09.12...
Something else I thought I might add...the scenarios that I can think of with gold are:

1-Markets go down on giopolitical, economical, China or Europe news and gold goes up due to risk-off. (Likely)

2- Markets go up on Q/E and everything follows suit and gold also goes up due to inflation fears. (Likely)

3- Markets go up on news that everything is well in the world, Europe is fixed, the Iran issue is resolved, China and Japan become pals, a solution is found to the fiscal cliff and the fed achieves its goal of low inflation combined with low un-employment which ends the need to print. Making the economy healthy and everyone happy, in this situation gold would probably decline as money begins to flow into other asset classes. (Unlikely)

The way I see it and please enlighten me if I am not seeing something clearly, gold goes up whether the market goes up or down.
  • #335
  • Sep 29, 2012 11:38am Sep 29, 2012 11:38am
Priceline chart.
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  • #336
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:38am Oct 11, 2012 1:38am
Quoting split_unit
I know that everything in the equities universe looks like its heading north right now, but before you advice your grandmother to invest, I would advice caution. The most important chart for equities traders, the S&P 500 has hit resistance. The long trade north is crowded, big Ben has already announced Q.E 3 and that news will soon be old, the SPY (S&P500 ETF) has also hit resistance.

Of course the ramifications of Q.E 3 will have the deepest impact on the GDX, XOP, XHB, HYG, LQD, XME and VNQ industries.

Caution is advised, if you wanted...
Okay, nothing has changed economically. Q.E will still be taking place, with the economy continuing to recover in the US, any systematic risk should come from either Spain, Iran or China. The developments there are that Spain got a credit rating cut to above investment grade, Iran is in hyperinflation mode, China continues to slow down with a recent downgrade in growth prospects report by the World Bank.

Despite this all, I remain bullish, with today's action being pivotal to my outlook. The SPY (S&P 500 Index ETF) is approaching three key technical levels:

1- Horizontal support
2- Channal support
3- 50 SMA

The area of 142.00 - 142.50 will be key, if price holds above or below these levels, price would probably trend it will be interesting to buy stocks if things hold.
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  • #337
  • Oct 16, 2012 10:53am Oct 16, 2012 10:53am
Quoting split_unit
Okay, nothing has changed economically. Q.E will still be taking place, with the economy continuing to recover in the US, any systematic risk should come from either Spain, Iran or China. The developments there are that Spain got a credit rating cut to above investment grade, Iran is in hyperinflation mode, China continues to slow down with a recent downgrade in growth prospects report by the World Bank.

Despite this all, I remain bullish, with today's action being pivotal to my outlook. The SPY (S&P 500 Index ETF) is approaching three key technical...
I got my green light
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  • #338
  • Edited 12:31am Oct 17, 2012 12:02am | Edited 12:31am
My next idea is to long RIMM the 'Blackberry' manufacturer, anyone following how I trade knows that I look at my trades from several angles. Lets assess RIMM.

Technical

1- Excellent technical base setup at $8.50.

2- Climatic high volume on a down day on the 28th of September with 140 million shares being traded, needless to say, the stock DIDN'T follow through to the down side.

3- Long term trendline about to be taken out.

Fundamental

1- Book value per share at $18.14 which is more than DOUBLE the stock price, so if RIMM were to go bankrupt, shareholders would get more than double what they currently own.

2- RIMM Won't go bankrupt cause the company essentially has no debt!

3- No debt means that the company has a lot of room to maneuver.

4-RIMM has alot of cash, with the cash value per share being $3.94 per share. That is 50% of the stock price.

5- RIMM's gross margin is 24%, not too bad but it can improve. RIMM's operating margin is where it suffers, it seems like RIMM has a ton of expenses and should cut down on expenses to improve operational margin and subsequently the net margin.

Miscellaneous

1- RIMM is unfairly being slammed by the media, this should market a bottom.

2- The telecommunication industry is consolidating, with many mergers and acquisitions taking place. The industry is also acting quite strongly when compared to peers, this should favor RIMM.

3- The market as outlined by my last post shows that SPY is set for a new round of buying, everything should follow suit.

4- HPQ (Hewlett Packard) has a correlation of 96.5% with RIMM and its situation both technically and fundamentally is more worse than RIMM and is yet better off than RIMM. This could represent and arbitrage opportunity.

5- The Company's cheap price could attract potential buyers or acquirers

Down side

1- RIMM fundamental situation continues to deteriorate.

2- RIMM fails to break out from the base and heads lower.

Summary


I think that RIMM presents an excellent R/R opportunity, it has all the elements I look for when trading/investing and is also a great long term play. If you decide to buy the stock, you have two options, either you outright buy the shares or you purchase a long term call option (more than a month), I think that 3 months as a minimum are required for RIMM's to reveal its true potential.
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  • #339
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:29pm Oct 17, 2012 2:29pm
Seems to be forming a good base. I also I have it on my radar.

[quote=split_unit;6105521]My next idea is to long RIMM the 'Blackberry' manufacturer, anyone following how I trade knows that I look at my trades from several angles. Lets assess RIMM.
  • #340
  • Oct 17, 2012 11:24pm Oct 17, 2012 11:24pm
[quote=gregofx;6108721]Seems to be forming a good base. I also I have it on my radar.

Quoting split_unit
My next idea is to long RIMM the 'Blackberry' manufacturer, anyone following how I trade knows that I look at my trades from several angles. Lets assess RIMM.
Hey Greg! Long time no see, yeah it seems to be forming a nice base. Glad your on the same page
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