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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #54,061
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:17pm Sep 11, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting CommercialB
mmm...not everyone is anticipating more QE, and any anticipation is probably mostly priced in already anyway after recent rises, so maybe not a good time to enter long if Benny disappoints for example and you find yourself buying at the top. Don't know what would happen if Karlsruhe throws a spanner in the works but I'd imagine also USD dollar bullish?

...amateur at work here guys so caution is advised
Guess I was wrong. This Asian session is boosting the Gold now.
  • #54,062
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:23pm Sep 11, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting foto
Not trying to take advantage of the very long day my European friends have put in, But, the Euro buyers have been there in spite of the upcoming FOMC and Karlsrhue and the uSD buyers have not.

Think about it a few seconds
Not sure if the buyers are there, it's more of USD shorts are there. To PT's point, we've not had any technical pullbacks. To Ken's questions, I was also surprized we didn't make new highs on crude and gold today as the US dollar fell below 80 and into the 79 range. So to me it looks like the anticipationof QE3 has been baked in now, but if there is any form of QE announced at the FOMC meeting, you can bet the farm the actual result of more QE is far from being backed in.

With every technical level being breached and untested as support, they now become stronger technical support as the E/U continues to raise. I may be wrong but I think the best we can do at this point is the 1.2440 level before the bulls take full control (from a technical perspective of course). Fundamentasl could change perception (like if Greece nuked Germany for not giving them more money to live the Dolce Vita) and it's a whole new game.

Good night folks and see you at the London open. I want to be up to see the fireworks at 8am GMT.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,063
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:40pm Sep 11, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting Cgb
Not sure if the buyers are there, it's more of USD shorts are there. To PT's point, we've not had any technical pullbacks. To Ken's questions, I was also surprized we didn't make new highs on crude and gold today as the US dollar fell below 80 and into the 79 range. So to me it looks like the anticipationof QE3 has been baked in now, but if there is any form of QE announced at the FOMC meeting, you can bet the farm the actual result of more QE is far from being backed in.

With every technical level being breached and untested as support,...
Before you hit the sacks, take a look at AUD/USD. There's another chance of 100 pips rally (my guess). It props 35 pips just now. I added long @ 1.04330.
  • #54,064
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:56pm Sep 11, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If a market is rallying and a resistance is breached, a prudent trader will wait for the broken resistance to be tested as support before placing a buy order.
  • #54,065
  • Sep 11, 2012 11:38pm Sep 11, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting Halifax
IMO the market is positioned for the announcement of further easing from the FOMC minutes...
Well this week hasn't started out how I expected so I'm reassessing market is very much positioned for a sell-off now, but this week isn't looking very nice for me yet so I'm still sitting out.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #54,066
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:02am Sep 12, 2012 12:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
That all depends on the German constitutional court decision tomorrow and the FOMC decision on Thursday. If either one of the two disappoints, we get a roll over with a possible target at or below 1.2590. If both of them disappoint the market, we'll be retesting 1.2041 lows in short order. However, if both decisions give what the market is expecting, then I believe we'll be testing 1.30 before the end of day Thursday.

It's certainly a finger nail biting experience waiting for the news to come out.
Pt, both your targets both ways are good! However it will be 2013 when we get to see 1.20 again. Or maybe never if the d day dec 2012 happens. LOL
  • #54,067
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:27am Sep 12, 2012 12:27am
Good morning all

The day has arrived where we should finally see some action. The news events today include the Dutch elections, a State of the Union address by Jose Barosso and an announcement on the rules of the proposed EU Banking Union. However, the most important event today is the decision by the German constitutional court on the legitimacy of the ESM (European Stability Mechanism). Basically the European bailout fund.

I really do not see how the court would rule against its legitimacy knowing full well that such a ruling would spell the end of any remaining confidence in the Euro as a common currency. However, I do not expect the decision to give the ESM a carte blanche either. One of the problems with ESM is that it requires each signing member nation to relinquish part of its sovereignty, and such relinquishment goes against democracy. So the possibilities as I see them are as follows.

1. The court may require that the ESM treaty be modified so that Germany may have equal say in any future Euro rescue policies and any such policies be put to a democratic vote in the Bundestag.

2. The court may order that Germany's financial exposure to the ESM be capped at the current 190 billion commitment, and that any increase to that cap would also have to be put to a democratic vote in the Bundestag.

Either way, that makes the process by which struggling EZ nations apply for aid slower and more problematic and will probably not be received well by the markets. Of course such revisions to the treaty would be far better outcomes than the constitutional courts outright blocking the ESM ratification as such blocking would require a change in Germany's constitution or as an alternative, a referendum every time Germany's potential liability is increased or it is required to cede additional sovereignty.

Anyway, it is obviously time to buckle up. Who knows what kind of drivel Jose Barosso has lined up for us today. He's quite the optimistic one and tends to spew more verbal diarrhea than anyone else is Brussels. After all, he is the de facto un-elected President of Europe, so it's his privilege to have his sphincter installed where his mouth should be

I am not going to bother going through technical levels today. After all they have been quite useless lately and with today's events as well as tomorrow's anticipated FOMC rate statement, support and resistance are not going to mean much either. So instead of what I think, take a look at my daily chart and judge for yourself.

Buckle up and if you trade, do it safely.

E/U Daily
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,068
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:34am Sep 12, 2012 12:34am
Morning/Evening PT and everyone.

Buckled up and weary.
  • #54,069
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:39am Sep 12, 2012 12:39am
I really love your daily chart pt. the larger downtrend intersecting the shorter term uptrend. Right at the intersection point is where we indeed are feeling at this moment. perfect!!!!
  • #54,070
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:44am Sep 12, 2012 12:44am
Quoting Ken A
Morning/Evening PT and everyone.

Buckled up and weary.
Hi Ken, U invisible?
  • #54,071
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:47am Sep 12, 2012 12:47am
the 1.2878/1.2885 resistance cluster held... Triggered short @ 1.2870 break..

Stops over 1.2900
  • #54,072
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:06am Sep 12, 2012 1:06am
Quoting rekon67
Hi Ken, U invisible?


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pA6K3pRlwj...isible+man.jpg

  • #54,073
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:14am Sep 12, 2012 1:14am
Quoting Halifax
Well this week hasn't started out how I expected so I'm reassessing market is very much positioned for a sell-off now, but this week isn't looking very nice for me yet so I'm still sitting out.
PS I think the selloff comes after the court ruling, not the FOMC minutes. London has been the only one buying all week, they will unwind positions into the court ruling perhaps?

The US has done no real buying this week or at the end of last, I'm expecting something to come out of FOMC that would warrant buying for them still, no idea what though, but I think it is their turn to buy.

Still unsure of it all though, we have had a breakout of the long term channel, Fed is scared of deflation, I can see something being announced.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #54,074
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:16am Sep 12, 2012 1:16am
Quoting Ken A




Ken, your comment is "Invisible" too.

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  • #54,075
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:17am Sep 12, 2012 1:17am
Quoting Halifax
PS I think the selloff comes after the court ruling, not the FOMC minutes. London has been the only one buying all week, they will unwind positions into the court ruling perhaps?

The US has done no real buying this week or at the end of last, I'm expecting something to come out of FOMC that would warrant buying for them still, no idea what though, but I think it is their turn to buy.

Still unsure of it all though, we have had a breakout of the long term channel, Fed is scared of deflation, I can see something being announced.

when is the court ruling release ?
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #54,076
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:18am Sep 12, 2012 1:18am
4pm gmt, check the FF calender
"Don't Panic..."
  • #54,077
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:21am Sep 12, 2012 1:21am
Quoting rekon67
Ken, your comment is "Invisible" too.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1347430538

Scary. If you can't read this now, should perform group Exorcism.
  • #54,078
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:22am Sep 12, 2012 1:22am
Quoting balanced2012
when is the court ruling release ?
10 gmt
  • #54,079
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:29am Sep 12, 2012 1:29am
Quoting Ken A
Scary. If you can't read this now, should perform group Exorcism.
Ken, U think the jumbo will seat now?

Attached Image
  • #54,080
  • Sep 12, 2012 1:29am Sep 12, 2012 1:29am
Quoting Greenstar
10 gmt
That's NOT correct.....its 10 am Central European Time (8am GMT)
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