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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #54,041
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:26pm Sep 11, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting Vtmn
whats the current low? mine shows 47 but...
I see a 45 low. Its still tracing along a channel I drew.. so difficult to tell if it will break or not. Overbought status means it should go down, but we've been overbought pretty much since the start of the month.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54,042
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:28pm Sep 11, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting aeternum
I see a 45 low. Its still tracing along a channel I drew.. so difficult to tell if it will break or not. Overbought status means it should go down, but we've been overbought pretty much since the start of the month.
thanks, something wierd happened with mine...
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,043
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:31pm Sep 11, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting Vtmn
thanks, something wierd happened with mine...
Probably broker differences?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54,044
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:32pm Sep 11, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting aeternum
Probably broker differences?
probably, i was checking forexlive.com and saw euro @1.2845 whaaaaa?

mine was @1.2854
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,045
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:38pm Sep 11, 2012 4:38pm
"If the market would just go up, people would feel better." Barac Obama, September 2010.

Anybody feel better right now?

"Government will send money just to move the market up. Government will hold rates as long as they can until first obvious failed bond auction." Goldman Sachs interpretation of Obama's comments, September 2010.

It's coming...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,046
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:42pm Sep 11, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting Vtmn
probably, i was checking forexlive.com and saw euro @1.2845 whaaaaa?

mine was @1.2854
I have 1.2844 as the low, but keep in mind;

Inserted Video
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,047
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:57pm Sep 11, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting Cgb
"If the market would just go up, people would feel better." Barac Obama, September 2010.

Anybody feel better right now?
"Government will send money just to move the market up. Government will hold rates as long as they can until first obvious failed bond auction." Goldman Sachs interpretation of Obama's comments, September 2010.

It's coming...
i feel better
  • #54,048
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:07pm Sep 11, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting foto
I guess what is bugging me about the price action is that for anticpating events with presumably an uncertain outcome, resistance levels are dropping like flys on a cold winters day.
Price is just cutting through them as if they weren't there.
,,,/,,,
With bond sales so strong why is the USD getting so weak. Is all the money for the bonds coming mainly from domestic banks flush with QE liquidity and that is how the Fed finances the US government deficit with low interest rates. Same method as in Europe with the banks financing sovereigns.
I know. It was bugging me too at first until I put my thinking cap on. It seems to me that no matter what the US fixed income market is doing, if the speculative market is placing short term bets against the USD and the longer term Euro shorts are covering, then any such resistance is irrelevant. I see this as a parabolic panic buy. A front run on what could be. Everyone trying to jump on the same train out of fear that another one will not come along. This is further exacerbated by the fact that no breached resistance has been retested as support (no technical pullbacks).

If a market is rallying and a resistance is breached, a prudent trader will wait for the broken resistance to be tested as support before placing a buy order. When those broken resistances are clearly not being tested as support on a pullback, traders give up waiting for the pullback and just jump on board on the next shallow pullback or even the breakout itself out of fear of missing the train and then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, with all that unfinished business (untested support levels) left in the Rally's wake, once the dust settles, the next order of business is to go back and test them in a larger time frame context.

Makes sense to me.

Constructive criticism welcome.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,049
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:21pm Sep 11, 2012 5:21pm
PT I know it is late by you. I am bouncing in and out from dinner here.

What you say i have no objection to, it is rational.
But it would seem to me if the Euro is still in a Bear market with much downside to go, there should be more institutional orders ready to sell it at the levels we have just run thru.

If the institutions are waiting for a reason to buy the USD rather then having analysis that says buy USD then it is the USD which is entering a Bear. The absence of orders to buy the USD is the problem. There certainly is no absence of Euro buyers they are quite aggressive.

Stop running is one thing, but this is more then just stop running, no one is buying the USD. Where are the corporations repatriating monies, where is the flight capital out of Europe, certainly deposits are plunging in Spain and Italy. Even if the Fed was replacing lost USD deposits in Europes banks it would not be sending more to Europe then is coming to the states.
  • #54,050
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:44pm Sep 11, 2012 5:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I know. It was bugging me too at first until I put my thinking cap on. It seems to me that no matter what the US fixed income market is doing, if the speculative market is placing short term bets against the USD and the longer term Euro shorts are covering, then any such resistance is irrelevant. I see this as a parabolic panic buy. A front run on what could be. Everyone trying to jump on the same train out of fear that another one will not come along. This is further exacerbated by the fact that no breached resistance has been retested as support...
sounds good. Now just tell me when it will end and at price. LOL
  • #54,051
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:49pm Sep 11, 2012 5:49pm
Quoting foto
... But it would seem to me if the Euro is still in a Bear market with much downside to go, there should be more institutional orders ready to sell it at the levels we have just run thru.

If the institutions are waiting for a reason to buy the USD rather then having analysis that says buy USD then it is the USD which is entering a Bear. The absence of orders to buy the USD is the problem...
.. upcoming FOMC and Karlsruhe court ruling possibly keeping many out of market.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,052
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:52pm Sep 11, 2012 5:52pm
Quoting CommercialB
.. upcoming FOMC and Karlsruhe court ruling possibly keeping many out of market.
BINGO!!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,053
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:54pm Sep 11, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
BINGO!!!
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,054
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:15pm Sep 11, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting CommercialB
.. upcoming FOMC and Karlsruhe court ruling possibly keeping many out of market.
Does this explain why Gold and Silver didn't make new highs? If it's anticipated with more easing shouldn't they hedge against inflation?
  • #54,055
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:38pm Sep 11, 2012 6:38pm
Not only stop running, but also media frontrunning. Friday was full of QE. But you really made me wonder, where were they? Or was money flow so massive they just stopped everyone out? I think one of the easiest explanations is, Europe is desperate buyer, US is sitting tight. Asia? Thats for you foto .

Btw, great conversation guys.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,056
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:39pm Sep 11, 2012 6:39pm
When will the decision be given by the German court? I want out of my short before that time because it will be all over the place.

Ever have one of those feelings somebody will say something before then and it is going to go crazy WELL before the decision is released and the market will take it and run? hmmmm I think I might get out beforehand.
  • #54,057
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:44pm Sep 11, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting TRMZXT
When will the decision be given by the German court? I want out of my short before that time because it will be all over the place.
"Germany's Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will rule Wednesday at 0800 GMT on whether the European Stability Mechanism - the euro zone's permanent bailout fund aimed at stemming the sovereign debt crisis - and the fiscal pact on states' budget limits are in keeping with the German constitution." - WSJ - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj
  • #54,058
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:48pm Sep 11, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting Ken A
Does this explain why Gold and Silver didn't make new highs? If it's anticipated with more easing shouldn't they hedge against inflation?
mmm...not everyone is anticipating more QE, and any anticipation is probably mostly priced in already anyway after recent rises, so maybe not a good time to enter long if Benny disappoints for example and you find yourself buying at the top. Don't know what would happen if Karlsruhe throws a spanner in the works but I'd imagine also USD dollar bullish?

...amateur at work here guys so caution is advised
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,059
  • Sep 11, 2012 6:49pm Sep 11, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting ERedRick
"Germany's Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will rule Wednesday at 0800 GMT on whether the European Stability Mechanism - the euro zone's permanent bailout fund aimed at stemming the sovereign debt crisis - and the fiscal pact on states' budget limits are in keeping with the German constitution." - WSJ - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj
Thanks!!
  • #54,060
  • Sep 11, 2012 7:29pm Sep 11, 2012 7:29pm
Not trying to take advantage of the very long day my European friends have put in, But, the Euro buyers have been there in spite of the upcoming FOMC and Karlsrhue and the uSD buyers have not.

Think about it a few seconds
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