EurAnalysis | Page 2694 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #53,861
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:33am Sep 11, 2012 4:33am
Quoting rekon67
Why not search here?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,862
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:35am Sep 11, 2012 4:35am
Quoting rekon67
Why not search here?
I just told I was going to search there and I still am, so...

Btw, how about some metasearch engine? Thats where the real smart people search. Google is for noobs.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,863
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:39am Sep 11, 2012 4:39am
So, straight from the horses mouth.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...idityswaps.htm

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,864
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:39am Sep 11, 2012 4:39am
Quoting nathan25x
how much bull could a bullchuck chuck, of a bullchuck could chuck bull........
lol. Today it's more of a wood chopper

how much wood could a wood chopper chop, if a wood chopper could chop wood.

Wait. A wood chopper can chop wood.

http://whatgifs.com/wp-content/uploa...pping-wood.gif
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,865
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:42am Sep 11, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So, straight from the horses mouth.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...idityswaps.htm

T
The horse's mouth

http://lifelibertytech.com/wp-conten...2/08/horse.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,866
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:53am Sep 11, 2012 4:53am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yup, that would be fun as well .

Btw, and this is really insane alternative, which I definitely think wont take place. Obama knows he will loose elections, so he has last shot to fill in his pockets and shoots QE. Therefore, there will be no need of bailout in Europe, coz FED then simply buys Treasuries held by European banking sector and refill him with liquidity. Combined with ECB bond buying (where it is enough to apply for aid at IMF, not necessarily ESM) there will be no need of court approving.

This option really is sick and I dont...
Translating FA factors in good trading decision will give u a superb edge, knowing when and how to read news/reports and FA in general can be the key point between a successful swing trader or a failure...however, trying to rationalise and explain every single micro or natural Ebb and flow in the market with FA reasons is not only wrong but impossible...

That's what I call the "analyst syndrome" in which you may expend 99% of time trying to explain why the next move will happen while 99% of that next move is already happenning(ed)....

There is time for FA and time for TA, kwowing when to switch between them and when they intersect is key for swing trading. IMO the same consistency, discipline and clarity you apply in TA should be applied in FA avoiding at all cost crossing the line between clear and "too much" random information.

In FA there is a thin but clear line between analysing FA from a trading or macroecomic perspective and speculating with our own wild theories macro fundamentals so be careful you don't cross that line...don't get me wrong is just my 2 cents....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #53,867
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:54am Sep 11, 2012 4:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
If your theory is correct that we get QE if German court says FO, then that QE will not happen instantly and we will have a chance to ride this down to semi-oblivion
Jan Lambregts of Rabobank International believes the German parliament will not block the affirmation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). He is also hopeful of seeing another round of quantitative easing from the Fed.
finding A M S
  • #53,868
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:59am Sep 11, 2012 4:59am
Quoting prashant7
Jan Lambregts of Rabobank International believes the German parliament will not block the affirmation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). He is also hopeful of seeing another round of quantitative easing from the Fed.
The key words are in bold
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,869
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:59am Sep 11, 2012 4:59am
Good morning,
quick post and then gone for awhile.
Looking for clues about the German court ruling and its implications.
Spains Rajoy will hold back on the ECB request until after the rule.
Would expect the German court to base its ruling upon the upholding of German sovereignty. This is the primary issue throughout Europe and is the biggest barrier to a single State Europe that exists.

Draghi in his award speech was calling for the political integration of Europe, with the carrot that once a fait accompli came into existence the ECB would provide unlimited funds. In effect once dissenters abdicated Sovereignty the money would arrive at the doorstep.

However the ruling gets worded, the German Court is not going to allow the German government to abdicate to the ECB or to Brussels.
Rajoy knows this as well and will use it. After all if upholding Sovereignty is good enough for Germany it is good enough for Spain.
This throws the ECB back into either providing Rajoy with the funds without political strings attached or there will be more delay for the implementation of the Spainish bailout.

Much hype and money has flowed into the Euro and the USD has gotten a well deserved thrashing because of Fed policies. But as traders what is the next step.

The markets are expecting a whitewash of the bailout and have priced that in, but markets are basing analysis upon politics and not Courts. Courts do not rule upon politics but upon Law.

The German Court will act to preserve the basis of German Law not an coup d'etat by the ECB.

I remain holding Long USD pairs through the current time. Price action is not showing me the exit door yet.
  • #53,870
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:01am Sep 11, 2012 5:01am
Mate, they have extended those swap lines on 30. November. That was after the spike.

Ofc they could be using them to make that spike (read banking sector is crumbling, FED swaps loads of EUR, ECB uses USD to buy Treasuries, FED lends swapped EUR to EU banking sector), but that is not "clear news signal". This could be happening only behind the scenes, so if it is happening right now, we cant see it as well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,871
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:04am Sep 11, 2012 5:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate, they have extended those swap lines on 30. November. That was after the spike.

Ofc they could be using them to make that spike (read banking sector is crumbling, FED swaps loads of EUR, ECB uses USD to buy Treasuries, FED lends swapped EUR to EU banking sector), but that is not "clear news signal". This could be happening only behind the scenes, so if it is happening right now, we cant see it as well.

T
They also extended them in mid October. There were two extensions of 90 days each if I recall correctly.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,872
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:05am Sep 11, 2012 5:05am
Quoting foto
...I remain holding Long USD pairs through the current time. Price action is not showing me the exit door yet.
Do you mean you are long the US Dollar?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,873
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:07am Sep 11, 2012 5:07am
Schaeuble Rejects New Negotiations On Greek Reform Program

By Market News International || September 11, 2012 at 10:00 GMT

BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said
Tuesday there cannot be any new negotiations about the Greek budget
consolidation and reform program agreed with the EU and the IMF.

“It is clear that all conditions from the program agreed only at
the start of the year must be met,” Schaeuble said in a speech in the
German parliament.

“If this would not be the case then confidence would be again
destroyed and contagion risks for the whole Eurozone would be again
increased,” the minister argued.

“That is why there cannot be new negotiations on that point,” he
stressed.

Schaeuble also announced in his speech that the German government
will present a second supplementary budget for this year to finance its
E1.6 billion share in the capital increase of the European Investment
Bank.

However, the federal net new borrowing ceiling for this year of
E32.1 billion will not be raised, he said.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,874
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:09am Sep 11, 2012 5:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
They also extended them in mid October. There were two extensions of 90 days each if I recall correctly.
Ok, I keep on digging.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,875
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:11am Sep 11, 2012 5:11am
PT
Currently short EURO/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD/
long USD/CAD

Looking to buy EURO/CAD at 1.2400 level where the 20 sma is, as that ma has acted as solid support on the dailies.

In a prior post had said would short EURO/USD on indications that Rajoy would either not participate or hold off on involving Spain in a bailout.
Last Thursday exuberance in equities is where I got in. Premptive on Rajoy with 20/20 hindsight. Also premature with this weeks events yet to play out, but so far no big enough adverse moves to cause an exit.
  • #53,876
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:13am Sep 11, 2012 5:13am
Quoting sisse
....don't get me wrong is just my 2 cents....

sisse
Hi mate. I dont get you wrong. You are the best . And you have said this to me already like five times. And I still keep on doing that.

Mate, I love digging.

I know I may be overanalyzing from time to time, but thats just my lifetime journey. I think you understand.

And yes, that theory was very wild, I certainly agree. But now, back to my digging of swap agreements .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,877
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:15am Sep 11, 2012 5:15am
Quoting foto
PT
Currently short EURO/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD/
long USD/CAD

Looking to buy EURO/CAD at 1.2400 level where the 20 sma is, as that ma has acted as solid support on the dailies.
Okay I thought so. Was just checking
Best of luck to both of us. My bias is well lined up with yours.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,878
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:17am Sep 11, 2012 5:17am
Never sneak up on your spouse / fiancee / f**kbuddy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,879
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:23am Sep 11, 2012 5:23am
Lol FED. You just gotta love that.

FAQ:
Q: Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public?
A: Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

Sure, it is great it is published weekly. But where? Omg bank.

EDIT: btw, descending trianguloidwtf on M5.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,880
  • Sep 11, 2012 5:33am Sep 11, 2012 5:33am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Lol FED. You just gotta love that.

FAQ:
Q: Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public?
A: Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

Sure, it is great it is published weekly. But where? Omg bank.

EDIT: btw, descending trianguloidwtf on M5.
It's all tracked at the NY Fed

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/fx...wap_recent.cfm
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
23 traders viewing now