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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #53,841
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:39am Sep 11, 2012 3:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So. Anyone here thinks court can say FO? Would be funny . But there is question coming out of this question. If there is no investor who bets court will say FO, is court approving bailout 100% priced in?

I think the latest is right. They will approve and it is 100% priced in, so the market wont move that much. Maybe just a bit.

Some German nazi here perhaps?

T
i'm not sure about that Tom....the way this bull sentiment is running now, anything besides outright rejection could result in a sharp spike...

its almost as if the bulls know full well that their run is gonna be a short one, so they pack in as much as they can on the slightest of pretext.....
  • #53,842
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:40am Sep 11, 2012 3:40am
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD

Timeframe: 5 minute | hourly | daily | weeklyhttp://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?euru...29351456365000
  • #53,843
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:41am Sep 11, 2012 3:41am
Quoting Ken A
It just goes to pick up passengers then moves on.
true...but previously they didnt have to pull back so far or so fast to entice the longs.......just something noticed.........
  • #53,844
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:43am Sep 11, 2012 3:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So. Anyone here thinks court can say FO? Would be funny . But there is question coming out of this question. If there is no investor who bets court will say FO, is court approving bailout 100% priced in?

I think the latest is right. They will approve and it is 100% priced in, so the market wont move that much. Maybe just a bit.

Some German nazi here perhaps?

T
I believe it is almost fully priced in. If it was 100% priced in, then that would mean that everybody expects the court to deny the injunction and that's just impossible to have everyone agree 100%.

So if the injunction is denied, expect a relief rally as more euro shorts are covered and some last minute hopium freaks jump in.

However, the big event is FOMC on Thursday. So far it is estimated that QE3 is about 60-80% priced in. So if there is no QE3, expect to see 1.23xx
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,845
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:43am Sep 11, 2012 3:43am
well, the AUD and the Cable have moved back to their highs but the Euro is lagging.......
  • #53,846
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:45am Sep 11, 2012 3:45am
My EUR/CAD and U/CAD in deep *&*&*^. U/CAD can easily slip to 0.9400 if Fed officially announce stimulus.
  • #53,847
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:55am Sep 11, 2012 3:55am
Quoting nathan25x
i'm not sure about that Tom....the way this bull sentiment is running now, anything besides outright rejection could result in a sharp spike...

its almost as if the bulls know full well that their run is gonna be a short one, so they pack in as much as they can on the slightest of pretext.....
Well imo outright rejection would result like in 1,23 in the end of the week.

Sry, I may have misunderstood what you have said. So you think if they approve we are going to spike up?

But on the other hand, you pointed quite interesting fact. This bull run really is very fast. And it really may be because they know it will be short lived. I think if insider trading was happening, and they actually knew we were about to get QE, such an information wouldnt a) leak so soon on Friday b) if leaked, they would still be buying on Monday.

Hm. Remember Oct 2011? That was such a faceripping short squeeze. Pretty simmilar conditions really. It was after major break down and there was literally no reason to go long, except for expectations (which turned out to be wrong in the end).

So may it be, the run is that fast (and will be short lived), because a) court approving is already priced in for a long time (they are talking about it for a month) slowly boosting bulls b) QE will not pass, so they grab all they can before failure of FOMC and this is really the good old "buy the rumour, sell the news."

Btw, would be glad if someone is able to expand on Oct 2011 spike here. I know we have been talking about it a lot PT, but I forgot . So, do you remember mate? I think it was nothing but hopium back then.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,848
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:56am Sep 11, 2012 3:56am
Quoting nathan25x
true...but previously they didnt have to pull back so far or so fast to entice the longs.......just something noticed.........
I am watching H4, lower TFs will give me heart attack.
  • #53,849
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:05am Sep 11, 2012 4:05am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader

Btw, would be glad if someone is able to expand on Oct 2011 spike here. I know we have been talking about it a lot PT, but I forgot . So, do you remember mate? I think it was nothing but hopium back then.

T
It was a combination of low volume, Trichet talking up the Euro, and the Fed/ECB/BOE/SNB/BOJ/BOC liquidity swaps being boosted and further getting a rate cut.

So yes... it was all hopium front running the supposed solution to the credit crisis.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,850
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:06am Sep 11, 2012 4:06am
Quoting Ken A
I am watching H4, lower TFs will give me heart attack.
Funny you say that. I base my analysis on H4 and higher but most of the time I watch M5 and M15.

No heart attack yet
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,851
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:08am Sep 11, 2012 4:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
However, the big event is FOMC on Thursday. So far it is estimated that QE3 is about 60-80% priced in. So if there is no QE3, expect to see 1.23xx
Yup, that would be fun as well .

Btw, and this is really insane alternative, which I definitely think wont take place. Obama knows he will loose elections, so he has last shot to fill in his pockets and shoots QE. Therefore, there will be no need of bailout in Europe, coz FED then simply buys Treasuries held by European banking sector and refill him with liquidity. Combined with ECB bond buying (where it is enough to apply for aid at IMF, not necessarily ESM) there will be no need of court approving.

This option really is sick and I dont think it will happen. But if court says FO, I think we may very well get QE.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,852
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:11am Sep 11, 2012 4:11am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yup, that would be fun as well .

Btw, and this is really insane alternative, which I definitely think wont take place. Obama knows he will loose elections, so he has last shot to fill in his pockets and shoots QE. Therefore, there will be no need of bailout in Europe, coz FED then simply buys Treasuries held by European banking sector and refill him with liquidity. Combined with ECB bond buying (where it is enough to apply for aid at IMF, not necessarily ESM) there will be no need of court approving.

This option really is sick and I dont...
If your theory is correct that we get QE if German court says FO, then that QE will not happen instantly and we will have a chance to ride this down to semi-oblivion
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,853
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:11am Sep 11, 2012 4:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Funny you say that. I base my analysis on H4 and higher but most of the time I watch M5 and M15.

No heart attack yet
I am avoiding lower TFs, very easily disoriented where the trend is going when watching too many pairs across the screens. The mouse button always create a problem for me
  • #53,854
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:14am Sep 11, 2012 4:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
It was a combination of low volume, Trichet talking up the Euro, and the Fed/ECB/BOE/SNB/BOJ/BOC liquidity swaps being boosted and further getting a rate cut.

So yes... it was all hopium front running the supposed solution to the credit crisis.
Ah the swap rates. That was October? You know why I keep on forgetting that? Because I have heard it nowhere but here. I know FED made swap lines with CBs all across the world in 2009. New age CB union . I also know they have kept on lowering those swap rates to ease the money flow since then. And every time when they lowered swap rates, we had bull in equities. But I really dont remember them lowering in October. Going to my "friend" hitlergoogle to search for a while.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,855
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:16am Sep 11, 2012 4:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
If your theory is correct that we get QE if German court says FO, then that QE will not happen instantly and we will have a chance to ride this down to semi-oblivion
Yup . Funny week. One has to really love trading these days. Ah, i wish I were scalper. So much fun everyday.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,856
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:18am Sep 11, 2012 4:18am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ah the swap rates. That was October? You know why I keep on forgetting that? Because I have heard it nowhere but here. I know FED made swap lines with CBs all across the world in 2009. New age CB union . I also know they have kept on lowering those swap rates to ease the money flow since then. And every time when they lowered swap rates, we had bull in equities. But I really dont remember them lowering in October. Going to my "friend" hitlergoogle to search for a while.

T
Forget HitlerGoogle. Go here > http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5035368
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,857
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:20am Sep 11, 2012 4:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
.Going to my "friend" hitlergoogle to search for a while.
You know wikipedia is NOT a source. But:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central...liquidity_swap

"By November 2011, swap agreements were extended until February 2013, at lower interest rates"

That may be it.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,858
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:25am Sep 11, 2012 4:25am
Why not search here?
  • #53,859
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:31am Sep 11, 2012 4:31am
how much bull could a bullchuck chuck, of a bullchuck could chuck bull........
  • #53,860
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:31am Sep 11, 2012 4:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Forget HitlerGoogle. Go here > http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5035368
Nice post indeed mate. Lol page 154 .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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