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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #53,681
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:22am Sep 10, 2012 3:22am
Hmm.. Up or down?
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #53,682
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:23am Sep 10, 2012 3:23am
Quoting Wulfgar
pip perfect... PA trading is easy and profitable... just tedious an I hate being up these hours... lol


orders from 95 locked in... looking for a retest of the 82 and Ill add more shorts.... break and close of the 82 nullifies the move and back to the 95 we go(Ill grab another +10 if that happens)

ok +62 is good for me... im tired... goodnight all...
  • #53,683
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:24am Sep 10, 2012 3:24am
report of the legal service Bundestang say MEDE infringes their rigths.
http://www.eleconomista.es/economia/...uestarios.html
  • #53,684
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:26am Sep 10, 2012 3:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning. 100% pro .

Btw, i am thinking of your gold question, but it is kinda hard.

But if you want to read about gold, I suggest http://www.gold.org/investment/research/

Really lot of info in there.

t
Don't bother with the gold question, it was rhetoric. If you are interested, go dig about gold production but disguised as other metals (copper, iron ore, aluminum etc.)

PS. I don't need history lesson.
  • #53,685
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:34am Sep 10, 2012 3:34am
Quoting nathan25x
my take also, thats why i'm watching the AUD very carefully..it has made some lower lows beyond the end of day range from friday, but is having trouble breaking its daily pivot....if it breaks that pivot, then i'm looking for the euro to also finally break this range and go south a bit
I had mid-term short for EUR/AUD and have been watching AUD/USD too for the last 3 months but after Jackson Hole it was confusing to see the correlation. Mixed bag of Aussie, China data, QE and EZ news.
  • #53,686
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:35am Sep 10, 2012 3:35am
Quoting Ken A
Don't bother with the gold question, it was rhetoric. If you are interested, go dig about gold production but disguised as other metals (copper, iron ore, aluminum etc.)
I am interested and thinking of your question. But more for fun, that I could actually help you. But not interested in this kind of digging right now. I like conspirational theories, but I must understand to the subject in the first place. And I dont know much about gold. I have read only this. World Gold Council: Investors Guide to Gold . Really just basics. Maybe I will get time to explore gold more once I get rich from shorting the foker.

Edit: Hehe Ken, you know what is my second favourite statement after "I know, that I know nothing."?

"Historia est magistra vitae"

T
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf wgc_investors_guide_to_the_gold_market_uk.pdf   1.1 MB | 430 downloads
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,687
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:40am Sep 10, 2012 3:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I am interested and thinking of your question. But more for fun, that I could actually help you. But not interested in this kind of digging right now. I like conspirational theories, but I must understand to the subject in the first place. And I dont know much about gold. I have read only this. World Gold Council: Investors Guide to Gold . Really just basics. Maybe I will get time to explore gold more once I get rich from shorting the foker.

Edit: Hehe Ken, you know what is my second favourite statement after "I know, that I know nothing."?

"Historia...
Don't believe everything you hear from story tellers. It's their job to make the story interesting with sensations to sell more copy to make money.
  • #53,688
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:46am Sep 10, 2012 3:46am
Quoting Ken A
Don't believe everything you hear from story tellers. It's their job to make the story interesting with sensations to sell more copy to make money.
Wut? CMan is story teller here. Imo World gold council is the least biased source in the gold industry.

But as I said, I dont understand to gold. Take it or leave it. You can always get knowledge of gold market from reading CMans copy/paste.

Edit 4 Ken: I was never polite, was I? Well, I was, to few people.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,689
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:51am Sep 10, 2012 3:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Wut? CMan is story teller here. Imo World gold council is the least biased source in the gold industry.

But as I said, I dont understand to gold. Take it or leave it. You can always get knowledge of gold market from reading CMans copy/paste.

T
Not polite to talk about third person in his absence

Not funny if I have to explain everything.
  • #53,690
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:52am Sep 10, 2012 3:52am
[/u]Great summary, PT

I would just like to comment on the FED and QE speculation stuff.

Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone.


As for any "Further action" by the Fed, if you've been following the news closely, you perhaps may have realized that "Further action" has already been taken. That "Further action" is the Fed's "Communication tools". They have been communicating to the market for quite some time now through speeches by various voting members and several statements made by Bernanke himself. The idea is that as long as the FOMC is seen as standing ready to act when it is warranted by the economic data, the market will remain on a high and possibly this will translate into a general level of confidence that may in fact be transmitted to the real economy.
The underlined sentence is very important. This current FED's monetary policy environment is what i call a "Bernanke's bluff". Bernanke is effectively hyping up it's QE speech SO that it would become SELF FULFILLING that market participants simply get the confidence needed to stay in the markets and thus prop up the CONFIDENCE (since we are dealing with this kind of crisis) in the real economy as well. It's not about whether we NEED real QE or not, whether it's fundamentally justified or not. A lot of things in financial markets are fundamentally unjustified. And often times we need strong manipulation from the political leaders and the likes to achieve (even if it's artificial) stability. We have the same problem in Europe as well. European leaders are just waaayy worse in their manipulation skills than the U.S.

Coming back to the point, the key here (for Bernanke's bluff credibility) is time. Time is working against Bernanke. Every mixed to bad U.S. data means market participants will more likely call his bluff. Bernanke just wants to hold off anything till the elections so his future in the FED would be more clear .

Markets could hold up even with no QE till the election day (although, so many expectations build up ahead of the election day so anything could happen). Should Romney win i believe strong reversal in risk is inevidable and dollar could be the play of the near to medium term.

Giving my opinion whether there will or will not be QE then i'll say what i've said before: it's deifinitely NOT off the table but it should also NOT be around the corner. Economy is at stall speed and SO is the FED. I gave the QE chance 50-50 at best. Now, given Bernanke's manipulative hype, the odds are slightly in favor of no QE IF econ conditions support that. That's the wild card...and the elections.


take care.
  • #53,691
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:05am Sep 10, 2012 4:05am
Quoting Ken A
Not funny if I have to explain everything.
You mean like historicians beeing story tellers? Sure they are. Moreover, history is written by the winners. Do you realize I am from ex-soviet bloc? My parents were learning Soviet history here. Quite different version from what I was learning in school. For example in Soviet history, US was too weak to free Czech republic and so we got saved by Soviets, so they could rape our a$$es for 40 years. I was already learning capitalistic history. In that one, US sold us. Take your pick.

Anyway, read, read, read, make your own opinion. There is no real prophet who will tell you the truth. Truth is just angle of opinion. Everyone has his own and so do the historicians.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,692
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:06am Sep 10, 2012 4:06am
Quoting tinypip
Yes. Can you define "Soon"? Do you see it as a week, year, decade, century or longer?

Thanks.
I would say three to five years. I also cannot imagine how it will unfold since all my life the USA has been extremely powerful. It is quite stark how things have gone in the last 11 years since 9/11.

It might be faster than 3 years however I cannot yet let go of my slight doubt even with my knowing there is no solution that I can see at the moment.

Things will start to unravel during 2013 and leading the way will be the collapse of the Dow towards 6500 however this time there will be no solution short term like TARP or QE One Two Or Three.
  • #53,693
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:12am Sep 10, 2012 4:12am
EURO/CAD broke the range south and EURO/USD is testing. Now at what level carry unwind kicks in or doesn't is what i am watching for.
  • #53,694
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:14am Sep 10, 2012 4:14am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
You mean like historicians beeing story tellers? Sure they are. Moreover, history is written by the winners. Do you realize I am from ex-soviet bloc? My parents were learning Soviet history here. Quite different version from what I was learning in school. For example in Soviet history, US was too weak to free Czech republic and so we got saved by Soviets, so they could rape our a$$es for 40 years. I was already learning capitalistic history. In that one, US sold us. Take your pick.

Anyway, read, read, read, make your own opinion. There is no...
OK. My rhetoric question more about gold conspiracy of world domination. Now that I have to explain it's not funny anymore, there will be no more amusing conspiracy story
  • #53,695
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:17am Sep 10, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Ken A
OK. My rhetoric question more about gold conspiracy of world domination. Now that I have to explain it's not funny anymore, there will be no more amusing conspiracy story
Buhuhuuu . I want to hear it Ken. Pls tell me.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,696
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:19am Sep 10, 2012 4:19am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Truth is just angle of opinion.

it's like trading as everyone has different angle of the truth.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,697
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:27am Sep 10, 2012 4:27am
Moody’s:
- LIttle new in ECB bond-buying program
- ECB plan “leaves number of uncertainties”
- ECB program “will not resolve the debt crisis”
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,698
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:28am Sep 10, 2012 4:28am
Quoting gnomoneey
it's like trading as everyone has different angle of the truth.
Mine is a right angle

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._angle.svg.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,699
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:33am Sep 10, 2012 4:33am
Quoting gnomoneey
it's like trading as everyone has different angle of the truth.
Your answer could not be more true. Everyone and that includes myself see things based on their life experience. The one point that cannot be denied about the truth comment is the results. That is what gives confidence.

Whatever you think or do at the end of the day in forex there is but one question that I ask and answer. What are my results financially ?

This should be a very interesting week. There is more chance for present perception to change back to reality. Words go so far. Real actions are required and the market now has set a high standard.

Talk is cheap and real solutions and actions are needed. There are just too many players and different agenda's for there to be agreement of any consequence.

The markets are in waiting mode at the moment. We watch, wait and act as our own truths unfold.

Difference of opinions are good as everyone has their own opinion and their own view of life. Good day and good trading.
  • #53,700
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:33am Sep 10, 2012 4:33am
that moodys report would put the ball back into the Feds court as the Fed is quick to point its finger at Europe and say its your fault.
This now brings USD/CAD into play as to Fed response.
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