EurAnalysis

Have you tried to Google "tick charts for MT4" ? While you are at it, try Range bars or Renko bars, opens up a whole new look to your charts.

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1347233271.php

Snippet:

Posted Sunday, 9 September 2012 |

Most investors were duped by the mainstream financial media into thinking that the broad US stockmarket made an important upside breakout last week, but according to our charts it did no such thing. Sure the market did breakout to new post 2008 – 2009 crash highs, but it DID NOT break out to new highs on longer-term charts, and DID NOT break out upside from the large bearish Rising Wedge that it remains stuck in.

Our 4-year chart below, which shows the uptrend from the 2009 lows in its entirety, makes plain that the market is in the late stages of a huge strongly converging, and thus strongly bearish, Rising Wedge, which results from a steady diminishing of buying power. As we can see it must soon break out from this pattern and if the breakout is to the downside it is likely to plunge, which is likely given the looming Fiscal Cliff which will ravage corporate profits – if it succeeds in breaking out upside it will buy it more time, but this is considered a much less likely outcome.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2012/9-9cm/1.gif
Our long-term 20-year chart shows that the market has risen up into a zone of strong resistance approaching its 2000 and 2007 major highs – so much for the great breakout. Looks more like a great place for it to turn tail and start another bearmarket.

The Myth that Japan is Broke: The World’s Largest “Debtor” is now the Largest Creditor

By Ellen Brown

Global Research, September 05, 2012
Url of this article:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-myt...gest-creditor/


Japan’s massive government debt conceals massive benefits for the Japanese people, with lessons for the U.S. debt “crisis.”

In an April 2012 article in Forbes titled “If Japan Is Broke, How Is It Bailing Out Europe?”, Eamonn Fingleton pointed out the Japanese government was by far the largest single non-eurozone contributor to the latest Euro rescue effort. This, he said, is “the same government that has been going round pretending to be bankrupt (or at least offering no serious rebuttal when benighted American and British commentators portray Japanese public finances as a trainwreck).” Noting that it was also Japan that rescued the IMF system virtually single-handedly at the height of the global panic in 2009, Fingleton asked:

How can a nation whose government is supposedly the most overborrowed in the advanced world afford such generosity? . . .
The betting is that Japan’s true public finances are far stronger than the Western press has been led to believe. What is undeniable is that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is one of the most opaque in the world . . . .

Fingleton acknowledged that the Japanese government’s liabilities are large, but said we also need to look at the asset side of the balance sheet:

[T]he Tokyo Finance Ministry is increasingly borrowing from the Japanese public not to finance out-of-control government spending at home but rather abroad. Besides stepping up to the plate to keep the IMF in business, Tokyo has long been the lender of last resort to both the U.S. and British governments. Meanwhile it borrows 10-year money at an interest rate of just 1.0 percent, the second lowest rate of any borrower in the world after the government of Switzerland.

It’s a good deal for the Japanese government: it can borrow 10-year money at 1 percent and lend it to the U.S. at 1.6 percent (the going rate on U.S. 10-year bonds), making a tidy spread.

Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 230%, the worst of any major country in the world. Yet Japan remains the world’s largest creditor country, with net foreign assets of $3.19 trillion. In 2010, its GDP per capita was more than that of France, Germany, the U.K. and Italy. And while China’s economy is now larger than Japan’s because of its burgeoning population (1.3 billion versus 128 million), China’s $5,414 GDP per capita is only 12 percent of Japan’s $45,920.

How to explain these anomalies? Fully 95 percent of Japan’s national debt is held domestically by the Japanese themselves.

Over 20% of the debt is held by Japan Post Bank, the Bank of Japan, and other government entities. Japan Post is the largest holder of domestic savings in the world, and it returns interest to its Japanese customers. Although theoretically privatized in 2007, it has been a political football, and 100% of its stock is still owned by the government. The Bank of Japan is 55% government-owned and 100% government-controlled.

Of the remaining debt, over 60% is held by Japanese banks, insurance companies and pension funds. Another chunk is held by individual Japanese savers. Only 5% is held by foreigners, mostly central banks. As noted in a September 2011 article in The New York Times:

The Japanese government is in deep debt, but the rest of Japan has ample money to spare.

The Japanese government’s debt is the people’s money. They own each other, and they collectively reap the benefits.

Myths of the Japanese Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio looks bad. But as economist Hazel Henderson notes, this is just a matter of accounting practice—a practice that she and other experts contend is misleading. Japan leads globally in virtually all areas of high-tech manufacturing, including aerospace. The debt on the other side of its balance sheet represents the payoffs from all this productivity to the Japanese people.

According to Gary Shilling, writing on Bloomberg in June 2012, more than half of Japanese public spending goes for debt service and social security payments. Debt service is paid as interest to Japanese “savers.” Social security and interest on the national debt are not included in GDP, but these are actually the social safety net and public dividends of a highly productive economy. These, more than the military weapons and “financial products” that compose a major portion of U.S. GDP, are the real fruits of a nation’s industry. For Japan, they represent the enjoyment by the people of the enormous output of their high-tech industrial base.
Shilling writes:

Government deficits are supposed to stimulate the economy, yet the composition of Japanese public spending isn’t particularly helpful. Debt service and social-security payments — generally non-stimulative — are expected to consume 53.5 percent of total outlays for 2012 . . . .

So says conventional theory, but social security and interest paid to domestic savers actually do stimulate the economy. They do it by getting money into the pockets of the people, increasing “demand.” Consumers with money to spend then fill the shopping malls, increasing orders for more products, driving up manufacturing and employment.

Myths About Quantitative Easing

Some of the money for these government expenditures has come directly from “money printing” by the central bank, also known as “quantitative easing.” For over a decade, the Bank of Japan has been engaged in this practice; yet the hyperinflation that deficit hawks said it would trigger has not occurred. To the contrary, as noted by Wolf Richter in a May 9, 2012 article:

[T]he Japanese [are] in fact among the few people in the world enjoying actual price stability, with interchanging periods of minor inflation and minor deflation—as opposed to the 27% inflation per decade that the Fed has conjured up and continues to call, moronically, “price stability.”

He cites as evidence the following graph from the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs:
http://webofdebt.files.wordpress.com...pg?w=600&h=150
How is that possible? It all depends on where the money generated by quantitative easing ends up. In Japan, the money borrowed by the government has found its way back into the pockets of the Japanese people in the form of social security and interest on their savings. Money in consumer bank accounts stimulates demand, stimulating the production of goods and services, increasing supply; and when supply and demand rise together, prices remain stable.

Myths About the “Lost Decade”

Japan’s finances have long been shrouded in secrecy, perhaps because when the country was more open about printing money and using it to support its industries, it got embroiled in World War II. In his 2008 book In the Jaws of the Dragon, Fingleton suggests that Japan feigned insolvency in the “lost decade” of the 1990s to avoid drawing the ire of protectionist Americans for its booming export trade in automobiles and other products. Belying the weak reported statistics, Japanese exports increased by 73% during that decade, foreign assets increased, and electricity use increased by 30%, a tell-tale indicator of a flourishing industrial sector. By 2006, Japan’s exports were three times what they were in 1989.

The Japanese government has maintained the façade of complying with international banking regulations by “borrowing” money rather than “printing” it outright. But borrowing money issued by the government’s own central bank is the functional equivalent of the government printing it, particularly when the debt is just carried on the books and never paid back.

Implications for the “Fiscal Cliff”

All of this has implications for Americans concerned with an out-of-control national debt. Properly managed and directed, it seems, the debt need be nothing to fear. Like Japan, and unlike Greece and other Eurozone countries, the U.S. is the sovereign issuer of its own currency. If it wished, Congress could fund its budget without resorting to foreign creditors or private banks. It could do this either by issuing the money directly or by borrowing from its own central bank, effectively interest-free, since the Fed rebates its profits to the government after deducting its costs.

A little quantitative easing can be a good thing, if the money winds up with the government and the people rather than simply in the reserve accounts of banks. The national debt can also be a good thing. As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Marriner Eccles testified in hearings before the House Committee on Banking and Currency in 1941, government credit (or debt) “is what our money system is. If there were no debts in our money system, there wouldn’t be any money.”

Properly directed, the national debt becomes the spending money of the people. It stimulates demand, stimulating productivity. To keep the system stable and sustainable, the money just needs to come from the nation’s own government and its own people, and needs to return to the government and people.

Ellen Brown is an attorney and president of the Public Banking Institute, http://PublicBankingInstitute.org. In Web of Debt, her latest of eleven books, she shows how a private cartel has usurped the power to create money from the people themselves, and how we the people can get it back. Her websites are http://WebofDebt.com and http://EllenBrown.com.




Copyright 2012 Global Research

3. Who is going to benefit most and be on the upper hand by pumping gold price as high as possible? The country with the largest gold reserve mined and deposit? Do you think US and the rest of the world will let this to happen and dominate the world?

4. What if one day gold is banned for trade? You can buy but not allowed to sell? Something like you may only have either long or short for one currency pair at the same time?

5. Who actually owns the largest gold deposit and production around the world but declared as copper or other metals?

Google search have come out with mixed myth or fact or bed time story

- Lady Gaga.
- McMoran West New Guinea.
- Don Jhonson (yes, the Don of Vice).
- Tooth Fairy.
- Etc.

gold now 1739
eu still 1.2789

This is not a fairy tale. There is no Gold bubble.

In old days past the blacksmith sold silver and he kept the silver and gave a piece of paper saying this paper is worth 100 ounces of silver.

Nah I am not intelligent enough to explain it so just read this Ken A.

Silver Historical Background

Silver has attracted man’s fascination for many thousands of years.

Ancient civilizations found silver deposits plentiful on or near the earth’s surface. Relics of these civilizations, include jewelry, religious artifacts, and food vessels formed from the durable, malleable metal. This metal took on near mystical qualities in marking important historical milestones throughout the ages, and served as a medium of exchange. The Mesopotamian merchants were doing just that as early as 700 BC.

In 1792, silver assumed a key role in the United States monetary system when Congress based the currency on the silver dollar, and its fixed relationship to gold. Silver was used for the nation’s coinage until its use was discontinued in 1965. The dawn of the 20th century marked an important economic function for silver, that of an industrial raw material.

Today, silver is sought as a valuable and practical industrial commodity, as well as an appealing investment precious metal. Many countries now issue silver bullion coins, among them the Unites States, Canada and Mexico. Private issue silver bullion is also available from select private mints.

Although silver is relatively scarce, it is the most plentiful and least expensive of the precious metals. The largest silver producing countries are Mexico, Peru, the United States, Australia and Chile. Sources of silver include; silver mined directly, silver mined as a by-product of gold, copper, lead and zinc mining, and silver extracted from recycled materials, primarily used photographic materials. Today, silver bullion stocks make up a significant component of silver supply.

The American Eagle Bullion program was launched in 1986 with the sale of gold and silver bullion coins. Platinum was added to the American Eagle Bullion family in 1997. A bullion coin is a coin that is valued by its weight in a specific precious metal.

CurrencyMan: Silver is poor man's Gold.

Gold an Silver are a store of wealth or value. It retains it's value. It is no persons DEBT.

You cannot print it out of thin air.

IT IS NOT THAT GOLD GOES UP IN VALUE as much as it getting more valuable as More Money is printed by the Central Banks.

Now on to Gold...

Gold Historical Background

Gold has a long and complex history. From gold’s first discovery, it has symbolized wealth and guaranteed power. Gold has caused obsession in men and nations, destroyed some cultures and gave power to others.
Archaeological digs suggest the use of Gold began in the Middle East where the first known civilizations began. The oldest pieces of gold jewelry, Egyptian jewelry, were found in the tomb of Queen Zer and of Queen Pu-abi of Ur in Sumeria and are the oldest examples found of any kind of jewelry in a find from the third millennium BC. Over the centuries, most of the Egyptian tombs were raided, but the tomb of Tutankhamen was discovered undisturbed by modern archaeologists. Inside, the largest collection of gold and jewelry in the world was found and included a gold coffin whose quality showed the advanced state of Egyptian craftsmanship and goldworking (second millennium BC).

The Persian Empire, in what is now Iran, made frequent use of Gold in artwork as part of the religion of Zoroastrianism. Persian goldwork is most famous for its animal art, which was modified after the Arabs conquered the area in the 7th century AD.

When Rome began to flourish, the city attracted talented Gold artisans who created gold jewelry of wide variety. The use of gold in Rome later expanded into household items and furniture in the homes of the higher classes. By the third century AD, the citizens of Rome wore necklaces that contained coins with the image of the emperor. As Christianity spread through the European continent, Europeans ceased burying their dead with their jewelry. As a result, few gold items survive from the Middle Ages, except those of royalty and from church hoards.

In the Americas, the skill of Pre-Columbian cultures in the use of Gold was highly advanced long before the arrival of the Spanish. Indian goldsmiths had mastered most of the techniques known by their European contemporaries when the Spanish arrived. They were adept at filigree, granulation, pressing and hammering, inlay and lost-wax methods. The Spanish conquerors melted down most of the gold that they took from the peoples of this region and most of the remaining examples have come from modern excavations of grave sites. The greatest deposits of gold from these times were in the Andes and in Columbia.

During the frontier days of the United States news of the discovery of gold in a region could result in thousands of new settlers, many risking their lives to find gold. Gold rushes occurred in many of the Western States, the most famous occurring in California at Sutter’s Mill in 1848. Elsewhere, gold rushes happened in Australia in 1851, South Africa in 1884 and Canada in 1897.

The rise of a gold standard was meant to stabilize the global economy, dictating that a nation must limit its issued currency to the amount of gold it held in reserve. Great Britain was the first to adopt the gold standard in 1821, followed, in the 1870s, by the rest of Europe. The system remained in effect until the end of the first world war, after which the US was the only country still honoring the Gold Standard. After the war, other countries were allowed to keep reserves of major currencies instead of gold. The arrival of the great depression marked the end of the U.S. export of gold in the 1930s. By the mid 20th century, the US dollar had replaced gold in international trade.

The American Eagle Bullion program was launched in 1986 with the sale of gold and silver bullion coins. Platinum was added to the American Eagle Bullion family in 1997. A bullion coin is a coin that is valued by its weight in a specific precious metal.
Learn More

To learn more about the history of gold, please visit:

1. The Gold Institute.
2. World Gold Council.

CurrencyMan: With Gold on hand or in your hand you can travel anywhere and exchange it for Euro's or Swiss Franc's or just give it to a lady of the night who understands Gold and it's value.

As for BANNING Gold FAT CHANCE !!! That is why there is guns around. The world has changed as you can see.

Just read the history on Gold and civilizations and empires such as the Roman Empire, British Empire, German Empire and the last great empire the USA.

Soon the next Empire will be China.

Any Questions ?

Hey Ken,

No worries brother! We are all just doing the best we can to figure out where the markets are headed with the information presented to us.

Hope you have a fun and profitable week of trading!

Looks like I'm late for dinner...

Enjoy!

It was great. You need to like a Blue Cheese to enjoy this dinner, that's for sure.

You may be late for dinner, but there's always dessert
http://www.bigoven.com/recipe/193539...hocolate-Tarts

I rarely come across a dish I don't like...

Now those look good! Alright guys, be back in about an hour or so, headed to the kitchen...

Teasing with foods should be banned. Now I am hungry.

Yes. Can you define "Soon"? Do you see it as a week, year, decade, century or longer?

Thanks.

Open a new 1 min chart and add the Log Tick Data indy.......let it run for say 15 mins and then add the PostTickData indy, set its value to 70 ( = 70 ticks ) again allow it to run for a little before opening the new Off Line chart from the File Menu....

Frankie H1 showed that it wants to go higher..

Good morning everyone.

I hope you all had a great weekend and got some much needed rest & relaxation. We have a very interesting and potentially short term sentiment changing events coming up. Before I get into that, I want to draw you all a little mental picture of where we currently stand.

The ECB has a plan to purchase an unlimited amount of short dated bonds in the secondary market on the basis of repairing the broken transmission of monetary policy. Such bond buying will require the recipient country to apply for aid from the EFSF/ESM and meet all the conditions attached.

The Fed has hinted that if the employment outlook and other economic data worsens, they may step in and take "further action". Such "further action" could include "Communication tools", "Forward guidance" and "Asset purchases".

So now we have a market that is front running both possible actions. Is the market travelling down a dangerous road? Is the rally really justified? Let's take a closer look.

The struggling EZ bond markets, specifically those of Spain and Italy (and to some extent Greece) are rallying in anticipation that Spain or Italy will shortly come forward and apply for aid. In the interest of keeping this short, let's just focus on Spain to make my argument. Spain's immediate concerns are the sustainable financing and roll-over of its public debt. With the recent rally in the Spanish bond markets in both short and long dated maturities, the incentive for Spain to come forward and apply for aid is disappearing. It's not like there was much incentive for them to come forward anyway. Their internal problems are massive... way beyond what they are making public. An application for aid will bring too many prying eyes into the fold by the Troika, who upon careful inspection will definitely require more severe austerity measures as a condition of any such aid. So, I do not anticipate the ECB bond buying program to jump into action any time soon.

As for any "Further action" by the Fed, if you've been following the news closely, you perhaps may have realized that "Further action" has already been taken. That "Further action" is the Fed's "Communication tools". They have been communicating to the market for quite some time now through speeches by various voting members and several statements made by Bernanke himself. The idea is that as long as the FOMC is seen as standing ready to act when it is warranted by the economic data, the market will remain on a high and possibly this will translate into a general level of confidence that may in fact be transmitted to the real economy... and not just the equity/commodity markets. The problem here is that it is all an illusion and only a matter of time until the market figures it out. If Bernanke does not announce an asset purchase program at the next FOMC rate statement this coming Thursday, all this front running is going to unwind faster than anyone can say "OY". My opinion is that there will not be any such asset purchase program as it cannot and will not help the real economy. Rates are already at an all time low and cannot be lowered any more. The only solution now is a fiscal one. The Fed knows this and Bernanke is not a stupid man. He may however have backed himself into a corner and I am very eager to see how he's going to get himself out of it unscathed.

Now let's see what this week holds for us.

Today is pretty much a dead day on the news and econ data front, so my advice is to just turn off your terminal and go have fun. Of course I am just kidding around, but my joke is not born of thin air. You see, this week the focus is going to be on two main events and they are as follows...

On Wednesday, the German Constitutional Courts are scheduled to hand down their decision on the legitimacy of the ESM (European Stability Mechanism); the European bailout fund from which any aid requested by Spain or Italy has to come from in order for the ECB to be able to purchase any bonds on the secondary market. It is expected the the ruling will not block the program from being ratified by the Bundestag, but may impose restrictions on future developments such as limiting the amount of bailout money guaranteed by Germany. Even the restrictions will dampen the effectiveness of the ESM and will therefore be quite bearish for Europe. Obviously an outright rejection of the ESM ratification will have disastrous effects and may even put the future of the Euro in question.

Next comes the FOMC rate statement and Bernanke press conference on Thursday. The market has already priced in a rather high percentage chance that the Fed will embark on an "Asset Purchase" program. If the Fed does in fact launch such a program (which I very seriously doubt), then the USD will take a further beating and the markets will continue to rally in the short term until the program is fully priced in. In such a case, from there forward, any disappointing employment numbers or other economic indicators will surely reverse the rally in a risk-off sentiment. Alternatively, a failure to launch any asset purchase programs will result in a full or partial unwinding of the rally we have seen so far.

One other point that keeps slapping me in the face is that the Eurozone needs a weak Euro in order for the economy to have a chance at recovering. The Eurozone is currently at the edge of a deep recession and a stronger Euro is all that it needs for that final push over the cliff. As such, if the Fed prints and the USD takes a big beating over it, it won't be long before we start to see the EZ economic data reflecting this.

In summary, I expect to see our favorite pair chop along sideways until Wednesday at least. After that, I expect to see either a final pop upwards followed by more choppiness with a bearish bias, or an outright reversal (or bearish continuation of the larger trend).

Technically, the previously mentioned rising wedge is no more. Price has broken above my previously stated resistance levels and we are now back to a rising channel which has intersected with the 200 day MA and will soon intersect with the falling channel created by the previous daily bullish correction between January and April 2012. It's all in the daily chart below.

Best of luck today. Just keep in mind that a lot of hopium has already been priced in, so the risk is more tilted to the downside at this point.

E/U Daily

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
September 10, 2012 at 06:35 GMT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2800/20 (late Fri NY high 1.2817) ahead of tech res 1.2835/40 (200 day MA 1.2838). Also barrier talk 1.2825 and 1.2850. Buy stops through 1.2850. Bids 1.2750/60 and 1.2700/10

GBP/USD: Offers 1.6025/35 (Fri high 1.2035) possible buy stops above. Bids 1.5940/50 ahead of 1.5920/30 (Fri lows 1.5923)

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8000/10 and 0.8035/45, Bids 0.78970/80 (tech 100 day MA 0.7976) and 0.7925/35 ahead of stronger bids 0.7900/10 (55 day MA 0.7902)

USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/20 (likely semi-official, Japan Life co’s, importers). Sell stops through 78.00 and larger through 77.90 ahead of larger bids 77.50/70. Offers from 78.30 up to 78.50(exporters) ahead tech res 78.67 (Ichimoku cloud base) and more offers 78.90/00.

EUR/JPY: Bids 100.00/10, 99.60/70 ahead of tech supp 100 day MA at 99.45. Offers 100.20/30 ahead of tech res 100.43 (Fri high)

AUD/JPY: Bids 80.95/05 likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 100 day MA 80.76 and more bids 80.30/40. Offers 81.20/30 and more /tech res up at 81.70/80 (200 day MA 81.79)

EUR/CHF: Offers 1.2100/10, larger up at 1.2150/60 (Fri high 1.2156) possible buy stops above, but offers plentiful ahead of 1.2200. Bids 1.2070/80 and 1.2050/60

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0345/55(Fibonacci 50% retracement level 1.0355- of 1.0545/1.0166 fall) and more down at 1.0300/10, possible sell stops through 1.0270. Offers 1.0390/00 (debatable barrier 1.0400), but likely buy stops above ahead of further offers/tech res 1.0430/40

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2300/20 and 1.2235/45, Offers 1.2360/70 and 1.2390/10

NZD/USD: Offers 0.8145/55 buy stops above ahead of tech res 0.8185/90 (Aug 22 high 0.8187), Bids 0.8100/10 and 0.8040/50, likely sell stops through 0.8000

Today’s option expiries

Written by Pete Jackson
September 10, 2012 at 04:59 GMT

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.2680, 1.2750, 1.2760

GBP/USD: 1.6000

USD/JPY: 78.50, 78.75, 79.20, 80.00

EUR/JPY: 100.05

AUD/USD: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400

EUR/AUD: 1.2100

EUR/SEK: 8.4745

Still too early to tell yet, but looks fairly neutral so far.

man my coffee habit is getting expensive

there should be some kind of retrace today, have my shorts in already


wish u guys green week