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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #53,621
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:27pm Sep 9, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I know you aint that stupid but you keep acting like that. So sure mate, put me on ignore if you dont get the message. Swing calls are useless anyway, arent they? Now grow up grandpa,

T
I'm out!
  • #53,622
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:28pm Sep 9, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting rekon67
Because there is merely any gap up I think it proves there was Smart Money playing on last friday for hunting Stop Loss rather than a real WholeSalers Volume.

And now anyways it is going to wait for London Open.
Far too early to tell Rekon. Australian are still hung over for their Fosters and the shrimps on the barbie last night... Asian open will give better direction.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,623
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:32pm Sep 9, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting Cgb
Far too early to tell Rekon. Australian are still hung over for their Fosters and the shrimps on the barbie last night... Asian open will give better direction.
Ha ha no! It is only observation on the last daily candle. It just stopped where it should be

But today is another day if low volume again clear the next resistence at 1.2840 (that is what I see) then it is just a clear up.
  • #53,624
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:34pm Sep 9, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Me not carried away. Thats why I used smiley. Well, I did my best. If you dont get it, you dont get it .

Should I write "lol" after each word so you grandpas dont get offended? "lol" lolz. "cute"

T
i'm offended if you would call me grandpa
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #53,625
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:34pm Sep 9, 2012 4:34pm
Well I hope all of you had a great weekend. I enjoyed mine and now it is another week of work and hopefully a few good trades. I think my chart speaks for itself. Lol almost a twin of last Sunday's expectations. It worked great last Sunday so if it repeats I can make a little more beer money! Good luck to all this week!
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  • #53,626
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:36pm Sep 9, 2012 4:36pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Just curious Ken, why do you see a gap up for AUD? China's data was bad...

Also, due to the fact that there was not much consolidation for the AUD after Thursday and Friday's bull run up (which was news driven because of ECB) I just don't see how a gap up can happen...
Obviously I was wrong about the gap up
  • #53,627
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:36pm Sep 9, 2012 4:36pm
Quoting CarsonS9
Well I hope all of you had a great weekend. I enjoyed mine and now it is another week of work and hopefully a few good trades. I think my chart speaks for itself. Lol almost a twin of last Sunday's expectations. It worked great last Sunday so if it repeats I can make a little more beer money! Good luck to all this week!
  • #53,628
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:37pm Sep 9, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting Vtmn
i'm offended if you would call me grandpa
Nah, they cant be offended, they are traders. I hope.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,629
  • Edited 4:41pm Sep 9, 2012 4:39pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting rekon67
Ha ha no! It is only observation on the last daily candle. It just stopped where it should be

But today is another day if low volume again clear the next resistence at 1.2840 (that is what I see) then it is just a clear up.
I have about the same resistance Rekon. Mine is defined by the blue trend line which is our yearly (2012) daily resistance line.

Time for me to get dinner going. Tonight it's Baked Penne in a Saint Agur Mornay Sauce. One of my recipes and it's really, really good. Check it out here; http://www.bigoven.com/recipe/179603...a-and-Parmesan

Cheers!

Back for Asian open.
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,630
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:41pm Sep 9, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting Cgb
I have about the same resistance Rekon. Mine is defined by the blue trend line which is our yearly (2012) daily resistance line.

Time for me to get dinner going. Tonight it's Baked Penne in a Saint Agur Mornay Sauce. One of my recipes and it's really, really good. Check it out here; http://www.bigoven.com/recipe/179603...a-and-Parmesan

Cheers!

Back for Asian...
  • #53,631
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:43pm Sep 9, 2012 4:43pm
hey everyone, missed the gang at euranalysis for the past week or so, been moving cities

glad to finally have stable internet connection back and my computer for charting, mobile trading hasn't been too great lol

:nerd:
  • #53,632
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:49pm Sep 9, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting Cgb
...Time for me to get dinner going. Tonight it's Baked Penne in a Saint Agur Mornay Sauce. One of my recipes and it's really, really good. Check it out here; http://www.bigoven.com/recipe/179603...a-and-Parmesan...
I am slightly lactose intolerant and my taste buds are very sensitive to salt, so this is definitely not for me. However, it looks absolutely delicious.

By the way, in my case lactose intolerance means that if I eat too much butter, cream or cheese, I sound like the nutty professor's father

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,633
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:51pm Sep 9, 2012 4:51pm
Quoting neuron
hey everyone, missed the gang at euranalysis for the past week or so, been moving cities

glad to finally have stable internet connection back and my computer for charting, mobile trading hasn't been too great lol

:nerd:
Welcome back neuron. Now get ready... the roulette wheel is spinning and we're just waiting for the dealer to throw in the ball.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,634
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:23pm Sep 9, 2012 5:23pm
Haha, I was just thinking which Stock exchange actually kicks in first, so I went to have a look at New zealand stock exchange. And found this advertisement. Dont you want to invest in Dairy futures?

Btw, I have heard, that New Zealand stock exchange has 300 times bigger trade volume of Dairy futures than noone .
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,635
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:43pm Sep 9, 2012 5:43pm
Ok, I ve seen enough. No panic run up, maybe Asia is puzzled like me and is consolidating? Well, who knows? Not me for sure, but London may give a hint.

So cya around L.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,636
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:54pm Sep 9, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, I ve seen enough. No panic run up, maybe Asia is puzzled like me and is consolidating? Well, who knows? Not me for sure, but London may give a hint.

So cya around L.

T
Too early to tell yet Tom. There is still just over one more hour to go before Hong Kong trade kicks off.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,637
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:57pm Sep 9, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Too early to tell yet Tom. There is still just over one more hour to go before Hong Kong trade kicks off.
PT,

what's your opinion on the china nr over sunday and today?

it was nuetral with slightly good news?
thanks,
G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,638
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:04pm Sep 9, 2012 6:04pm
When the world's biggest money manager talks, every one listens.

PIMCO's Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, just told the world he likes gold more than stocks or bonds. The world's money managers followed suit.

The European Central Bank just announced a new and potentially unlimited bond buying plan. Prepare the blank checks; the United States already has.

The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, a disappointing result that could prompt an aggressive response from the Federal Reserve. Ammunition for another round of QE has been served.

If you didn't believe me before, I seriously hope you do now: Gold will go a lot higher.

Last Sunday, in my letter, "America's Gold Wiped Out," I talked about the world's current financial war: The Currency War



As a reminder:

A "currency war" is a fight between countries to achieve a lower exchange rate for their own currency. In other words, its competitive devaluation. In short, the cheaper your currency, the more money you attract from foreign entities; this leads to increased exports, growth, and job creation.

The dollar, the yuan, and the euro, are the three super power currencies leading the global currency war. The one on top will be the one that devalues its currency the fastest.

Currency is the heart of a nation; without it, it cannot survive. Its value is its Achilles heel. Collapse its value and everything goes with it.

Stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other investments are all linked through a complex network. If one sector is failing, another might be winning. For example, if stock and bonds are failing, one could turn to commodities to pick up the pieces.

However, all of these investment vehicles are priced in a nation's currency. Destroy the currency and you destroy all of the markets within the nation. Destroy the markets, and you destroy the nation.

That is why currency is the target in any financial war.

And that is exactly why major battles are no longer fought with AK-74's and tanks - these merely provide support.

In a controversial book published in 1999 by Col. Qiao Ling and Col. Wang Xiangsui of China's People's Liberation Army, they stated:

"In a world where "even nuclear warfare" will perhaps become obsolete military jargon, it is likely that a pasty-faced scholar wearing thick eyeglasses is better suited to be a modern solider than is a strong lowbrow with bulging biceps. We believe that before long, "financial warfare" will undoubtedly be an entry in the various types of dictionaries of official military jargon...financial war has become a "hyper strategic" weapon that is attracting the attention of the world. This is because financial war is easily manipulated and allows for concealed actions, and is also highly destructive."

Everything around the world is interconnected. Bonds could be issued in Brazil, underwritten in London, and sold through New York. You could even package everything in the form of a derivative from one country and sell it to another; selling securities for cash, backed by nothing more than someone else's performance.

That means any form of currency manipulation or attacks have serious repercussions around the world. And the two heavy weights of the world are in a full fledged battle against one another.


China vs. United States

While Europe is China's largest trading partner, China's main link with the global financial system is the U.S. government bond market.

China earns several hundred billion dollars every year from their trade surplus. This is a lot of money that needs to be invested, and few places can handle that type of investment without severely affecting market prices.

That's why the Chinese have turned their surpluses into the one place that can handle the size of investments China needs to make - the U.S. government bond market.

China's foreign reserves hold more than $1 trillion worth of dollar-denominated U.S. securities - that's more than any country in the world. But this number may be greater than that.

That's because not every government security is issued by the Treasury. Many of them are issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other banks and agencies; thus making it harder to track.



With such a large holding of U.S. dollar-denominated securities, China has a major concern: They fear that the United States will devalue their currency through massive money printing and inflation, destroying the value of China's foreign reserves. All while the United States benefit from more exports due to a devalued currency.

"Prior to 2011, no one was winning the currency war. China was experiencing a surplus and the US was negative. So the U.S. did everything it could, including persuasions through the G20, to convince China to appreciate their currency to balance out the major trade deficit. But China wouldn't allow their yuan to appreciate because it would hamper their own growth. Why would they hamper their growth for the benefit of a competing country?


As a result, the United States, empowered by its world reserve status, pulled out its secret weapon: Quantitative Easing (QE). The United States effectively devalued its own currency by increasing its own money supply, forcing inflation onto China." -


Hypothetically, China could unleash its U.S. treasuries in an open market, highly visible fire sale, in retaliation for the United States' strategic devaluation. This would cause U.S. interest rates to blow up and the dollar to collapse on foreign markets, forcing a world of financial dislocation and hurt onto U.S. soil.

However, this would also be a big blow to China because the treasury market would collapse long before China could unload even a small portion of its holdings. That means if China attempted to unload, it would mean economic suicide.


The Real Twist

But there is one thing China could do that everyone ignores: operation twist, China.

The Chinese could shift the mix of Treasury holdings from longer to shorter maturities without selling a single bond and without reducing their total holdings. It would be damaging to the U.S. and much more cost effective for the Chinese.


Shorter maturities are less volatile and more liquid, which means the Chinese would be less vulnerable to market shocks. They also wouldn't have to dump their holdings in a fire sale, but simply wait them out until maturity.

But don't think the U.S. doesn't already know this.

Under the United States' operation twist, the maturity extension program, the Federal Reserve intends to sell or redeem a total of $667 billion of shorter-term Treasury securities by the end of 2012 and use the proceeds to buy longer-term Treasury securities. This will extend the average maturity of the securities in the Federal Reserve's portfolio.

According to the Fed, "by reducing the supply of longer-term Treasury securities in the market, this action should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, including rates on financial assets that investors consider to be close substitutes for longer-term Treasury securities. The reduction in longer-term interest rates, in turn, will contribute to a broad easing in financial market conditions that will provide additional support for the economic recovery."

In reality, the United States is combating China's operation twist with its own. If China won't buy their long-term securities, the United States will just print money to pay for them - further devaluing the foreign holdings of China.

Now do you see the moves being made by both countries?

The media will never tell you this because the U.S. will never say this publicly - it would be politically incorrect. That's why stuff like this never gets reported.

China has been aggressively diversifying their cash reserve positions away from dollar-denominated instruments of any kind and is deploying its new reserves.

elsewhere.

Because investment options in other currencies are limited, China has focused on the one thing that makes sense when inflation is in the picture: commodities.


A Major Shift in Currency

For the last few years, China has been diversifying its massive trade surplus into commodities such as gold, oil, copper, agricultural land, water, and stocks of mining companies around the world. This diversification is well underway and gaining extreme traction.


Rumours are already flowing that state-owned China National Gold Corp. is considering bidding for African Barrick.

Earlier in the year, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corp paid $3.37 billion for uranium developer Kalahari Minerals and its partner, Extract Resources, in Namibia.

China's Zijin Mining Group is about takeover Australian gold producer Norton Gold Fields.

China National Offshore Oil Co. is bidding $15.1-billion to buy Calgary-based Nexen Inc.

The list continues to grow. (See my letter from last year, Action Speak Louder than Words)


From 2004 to 2009, China secretly doubled its official holdings of gold through one of its sovereign wealth funds, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE); they have continued to accumulate under the radar since then. How did they do this without causing a major spike in prices?

SAFE has been making purchases all over the world through global dealers. Since it is not part of China's central bank, all of these purchases were made off the record. Then, in a single transaction in 2009, SAFE transferred its entire position of 500 tons of gold to the central bank - then announced it to the world.

Combined with the long-term gold buying program already underway, the Chinese is clearly diversifying away from the dollar and encouraging a new financial instrument to the world.

Deals have already been struck by China and other countries such as Russia to bypass the dollar in bilateral trades (see A Really Big Problem). The currency war is in full swing and it's a ticking time bomb.

A lot of conspiracy theories regarding big bank bailouts, derivatives, and the financial war are real. These things play in the background while citizens around the world act like pawns in a game of chess between countries, bankers, and oligarchs.

Over the next month, I am going to continue sharing the truth about our current financial war. Some of what I say may shock you. Some of what I say may offend you. But all of what I say will give you a new perspective on life.

Next week, I am going to share a dramatic timeline of events that will knock you off your seats. Once you see it, you're going to be a believer in gold, silver, and other tangible assets - if you're not already.


  • #53,639
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:15pm Sep 9, 2012 6:15pm
Hello I was wondering if anyone here might know if it is possible to get tick timeframes in MT4?

In addition to the standard time frames I also would like to run a 70 tick per bar chart.

Thanks a million to whoever can point me in the right direction.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #53,640
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:53pm Sep 9, 2012 6:53pm
thanks alot CurrencyMan for sharing this article, i read it and enjoyed, thank you man
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