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  • #1,101
  • Sep 9, 2012 12:35am Sep 9, 2012 12:35am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Bad H&S.

Poung yen daily.

In conclusion, if you want to trade a H&S trade when the price break the neckline no from the shoulder or not trade. If you know elliottwave you must know if it is a good or bad one.
For the record, I don't see any right shoulder on this H&S, this is kind of what I was getting at in my post... *-)

ps - EW DOES help somewhat with knowing which are good, but truly there is no crystal ball here. If the pattern has good form and is valid, and price breaks out, it should be traded imo. Some jump in off the gates (me), others wait for a backtest, that sometimes never comes. Pick your poison
  • #1,102
  • Sep 9, 2012 4:49am Sep 9, 2012 4:49am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Hi infinitus. I wouldn't trust a damn word that FED says, for starters, but also there are many misconceptions with H&S patterns, including how to make them, when is it invalid, etc, etc

I have been doing this a long time, and can tell you from experience that the pattern, when valid on H1 or higher, and when it actually executes, has about a 70% success rate, and has made me plenty of money. (EU daily earlier this year was sweet)

This is just my experience. I also see that the FED including STOCKS in their report, that about sums up my...


Hi Jay,




Let me address a few points:


a) faith in the words of the FED - LOL - once a liar........

can understand that

b) I think HS pattern are strongly related to the EW count as Luis just showed

I have to look if I can find it somewhere: Prechter once told, that it is important to look at the volume on the left and the right shoulder. When I remember correctly he said, that the right shoulder should show declining volume. If that is the case, price should plunge after the right shoulder (most of the time)

c) Restoring face in USD

Well, I showed yesterday a USDX count from Daneric. If it is good - who knows :-)


Yesterday Zerohedge ran a very good article regarding the FED's money printing

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...g-enough-money

That is what I am telling since years - with around 50 Trillion in USD denominated debt (may be even up to 200 trillion, depends on how one measures that) worldwide, there is no chance for the FED to inflate the USD, since the monetary base of the USA is now around 2.5 trilion

When only 5% (of 50 trillion) debt implodes, the FED can print 2.5 trillion of USD without causing inflation.

Inflation is measured in M2 + DEBT (the debt part is often forgotten)

when debt implodes, you can print like crazy. That is the advantage of being reserve currency


On the other side:

when Governments, Banks, Industries etc. deleverage, paying back their debt, they are in need of USD


So you have at the same time to factors that are very positive for the USD





Nice discussions here, I like that :-))


Have a nice Sunday
  • #1,103
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:49am Sep 9, 2012 7:49am
Quoting jayjonbeach
For the record, I don't see any right shoulder on this H&S, this is kind of what I was getting at in my post... *-)

ps - EW DOES help somewhat with knowing which are good, but truly there is no crystal ball here. If the pattern has good form and is valid, and price breaks out, it should be traded imo. Some jump in off the gates (me), others wait for a backtest, that sometimes never comes. Pick your poison
I think you dont get the point in that chart. I am not talking about the breakout. People can think that the H&S is coming and lost their money cause dont wait until the breakout...

ps.You could trade whaever you want if you know what are you doing.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,104
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:58am Sep 9, 2012 7:58am
Attached Image
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,105
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:17am Sep 9, 2012 8:17am
Quoting gnomoneey
June1, jun 29 and today are day of month when gold had $30 move or more
interesting it happens end of month...something to look at in the next month...
HS still in play...
first xau/usd

we are still on the bull trend that started when we bounced rom the 05/15/2012 low of 1526 and almost four months later we are now at 1735.
I still see we are heading towards my 1794 target before retracing. But again I we can easily see it going 1900 and at same time down to 1526 again

here's my post from previous post #591
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.p...rchuser=235713

i'm about two weeks too early of my target prediction

thanks,
G
Attached Thumbnails http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1347196382
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,106
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:07am Sep 9, 2012 9:07am
Hi infinitus. Interesting thoughts on Inflation, I've seen so many views on this. So, you don't think Gold standard is coming back?

-----

Hi Luis. Only an amateur would "count" on a pattern completing, AND executing, before it really does. A pattern is NEVER a pattern, until it completes, otherwise it is pure speculation, hopefully anyone with any common sense knows this.

A good example is the one year old Triangle in Gold right now that I posted earlier. It is PERFECT, however, nothing says that the E wave will come and the pattern will complete (I already thought it broke out without it, but then realized I jumped the gun), so its still speculative at this point, until an E wave completes, if it does at all.

I have to confess I have got somewhat caught before "counting" on a Triangle. I did NOT enter the trade in anticipation, but rather I was waiting for one to complete, again a perfect pattern/setup and low and behold the MM's had other ideas in mind (simple ABC), price ran off in a very large hurry, and left me behind holding my Triangle and missing a perfect entry at the "C". The markets constantly teach us lessons, important thing is to listen....
  • #1,107
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:46am Sep 9, 2012 9:46am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Hi infinitus. Interesting thoughts on Inflation, I've seen so many views on this. So, you don't think Gold standard is coming back?

-----

Hi Luis. Only an amateur would "count" on a pattern completing, AND executing, before it really does. A pattern is NEVER a pattern, until it completes, otherwise it is pure speculation, hopefully anyone with any common sense knows this.

A good example is the one year old Triangle in Gold right now that I posted earlier. It is PERFECT, however, nothing says that the E wave will come and the...
Hi Jay,

yes, thinking about deflation/inflation is much fun.

But there is more to it which might produce deflation or prevent inflation or, better say, influence them:

Velocity of money



Take a first read here in this exceptional work of Mauldin

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03...s-of-velocity/
  • #1,108
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:52am Sep 9, 2012 9:52am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Hi infinitus. Interesting thoughts on Inflation, I've seen so many views on this. So, you don't think Gold standard is coming back?

-----

Hi Luis. Only an amateur would "count" on a pattern completing, AND executing, before it really does. A pattern is NEVER a pattern, until it completes, otherwise it is pure speculation, hopefully anyone with any common sense knows this.

A good example is the one year old Triangle in Gold right now that I posted earlier. It is PERFECT, however, nothing says that the E wave will come and the...


Just forgot the question regarding Gold standard:


out of EW sight such a standard can only be adopted/readopted out of very bad social mood regarding Gold or economy.

But do you see somewhere really bad social mood regarding economy? Stock indices near their all time highs, again people calling "this time is different", Gold in the vicinity of its top, and so on........

Sooner or later we eventually will get the Gold standard, but I fear that the economies/currency system has to go down the drain beforehand.

I do think, that when a global gold standard is established, private ownership of the metal is prohibited (the US did it already once).

I fear, we will see soon enough.......
  • #1,109
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:22am Sep 9, 2012 10:22am
http://www.wavetimes.com/elliott-wav...#comment-36085
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  • #1,110
  • Sep 9, 2012 12:34pm Sep 9, 2012 12:34pm
hi Luis,

this pair i think will continue bull trend but a retracement is due.

so at which level do you think it will happens?

thank you
I'll Sell when price is heading to Hell
  • #1,111
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:29pm Sep 9, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting braintec
hi Luis,

this pair i think will continue bull trend but a retracement is due.

so at which level do you think it will happens?

thank you
I think the retracement should go to 1.2760/50 then 1.2880/1.2930 the top
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,112
  • Sep 9, 2012 5:49pm Sep 9, 2012 5:49pm
Hi LC and all

what do you think about the above chart?

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,113
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:45pm Sep 9, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting Olu
Hi LC and all

what do you think about the above chart?

Olu
I like maybe a little break down how you suggest but no break 1.5040, so UP. I was looking the chart from the low. Maybe 5 waves more up before a correction. Something like this: iii-iv-III-IV-5, that means this up could be iii then iv-... etc. Thanks for share.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,114
  • Sep 9, 2012 6:50pm Sep 9, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting Olu
Hi LC and all

what do you think about the above chart?

Olu
Hey Olu be careful with dollar yen, MAYBE, just made (d) and dont how we talked before. Just in case with that scenario.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,115
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:08pm Sep 9, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting shafaat
http://www.wavetimes.com/elliott-wav...#comment-36085
There are a few things wrong with these charts, biggest issue is the last chart in particular, where he says wave 2 was a Triangle, that is NOT allowed. Also the wave 1 does not count as 5 waves.

My view is wave 4 is not over, but the market may not care about my view, and we might have to force some kind of impulsive count on the crap. (and there IS a Triangle there, to be sure, the first move was 3 waves which makes a good "A", next is a Triangle which is not allowed to be wave 2, and makes a perfect "B", then you see "C" up. See my prior Gold post, this ABC makes a perfect "D" wave in the Weekly Pattern)
  • #1,116
  • Sep 9, 2012 11:18pm Sep 9, 2012 11:18pm
This should be wave 4 so could be complex, but if this is a simple zigzag. There you go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,117
  • Sep 10, 2012 1:46am Sep 10, 2012 1:46am
Hi Friends, hope you had all a nice weekend.

I need all of your help


Atached there is a short term count which sees us in an ending diagonal

This ending diagonal may be finished already or give us a small new high


Possible?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #1,118
  • Sep 10, 2012 7:30am Sep 10, 2012 7:30am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Friends, hope you had all a nice weekend.

I need all of your help


Atached there is a short term count which sees us in an ending diagonal

This ending diagonal may be finished already or give us a small new high


Possible?
It is inside of the possibilities.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post5987598
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,119
  • Sep 10, 2012 7:37am Sep 10, 2012 7:37am
Not bad until now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,120
  • Sep 10, 2012 7:50am Sep 10, 2012 7:50am
We dont know if B is done already. I still see more downside 1.2755 or 1.2725 before more higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
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