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  • #1,081
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:13am Sep 8, 2012 7:13am
Did anyone see this in the usdcad 4h? I didnt. These structures work time and time again and we are tracking some in the gbpjpy usdjpy etc

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,082
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:15am Sep 8, 2012 7:15am
Quoting Luis Carlos
I see it a little dif but same result. I am contemplating a 1.2846 - 1.2933 to finish the correction, but look at something. If you used that X as triangle and you make a expantion using WX fib 1,618 is a perfect target 1.2933 with the 0,618 fib correction
Hi Luis,

the outcome for both counts seems to be the same.

The reason I did not count it in this way:

it eliminates the initial A-B move in my wave red Y. In doing that, I would be forced to count a series of 1-2's, and my fear is, that this would overshoot the 3004 level (which I like to keep LOL). And my intention was to show the most bearish count.

But we can definitively count it in the way you proposed. I think Lara from www.elliottwaveforex.com counts it in that way. :-)
  • #1,083
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:20am Sep 8, 2012 7:20am
Quoting Olu
Did anyone see this in the usdcad 4h? I didnt. These structures work time and time again and we are tracking some in the gbpjpy usdjpy etc

Olu
it should be wave 4, keep an eye the end of the wave 5.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,084
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:25am Sep 8, 2012 7:25am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Luis,

the outcome for both counts seems to be the same.

The reason I did not count it in this way:

it eliminates the initial A-B move in my wave red Y. In doing that, I would be forced to count a series of 1-2's, and my fear is, that this would overshoot the 3004 level (which I like to keep LOL). And my intention was to show the most bearish count.

But we can definitively count it in the way you proposed. I think Lara from www.elliottwaveforex.com counts it in that way. :-)
If 1.3000 is broken, bears are out... I can see any chart in that address

By the way ,ty fot the aw osc link, i will check it out.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,085
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:34am Sep 8, 2012 7:34am
Ok guys i am out. see you around best to you.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,086
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:38am Sep 8, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Luis Carlos
If 1.3000 is broken, bears are out... I can see any chart in that address

By the way ,ty fot the aw osc link, i will check it out.


Naaaa,

see, we are both in the same count (the YELOW one LOL)


So we are nowe in a wave B up.

Wave A clearly counts as impulse

So we can expect, that wave B retraces 61.8%. That would be 2936

Lately we have often seen (kind of usual for EURUSD) retracements up to 74.6%, that would be 3121

82.3% would be 1.3233 and even 100% is possible (but not so probable)



I have just finished analyzing this wave A.

I thought, that there would be a missing wave 5 in it. Would that be the case we would be limited to 3004.

But on different TF's I can count the impulse as finished. So the definitive last straw for bears is the 3489 (100% retracement)
  • #1,087
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:54am Sep 8, 2012 7:54am
Quoting Luis Carlos
it should be wave 4, keep an eye the end of the wave 5.
You are right LC I forgot to add that we need to be looking for an upmove now. I think the triangle targets 97.40 area.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,088
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:58am Sep 8, 2012 7:58am
Quoting infinitus
Naaaa,

see, we are both in the same count (the YELOW one LOL)


So we are nowe in a wave B up.

Wave A clearly counts as impulse

So we can expect, that wave B retraces 61.8%. That would be 2936

Lately we have often seen (kind of usual for EURUSD) retracements up to 74.6%, that would be 3121

82.3% would be 1.3233 and even 100% is possible (but not so probable)



I have just finished analyzing this wave A.

I thought, that there would be a missing wave 5 in it. Would that be the case we would be limited to 3004.

But on different TF's I can...
I agree with you I. gbpusd has blown past 5908 which was the 61.8 retracement. we might be heading for 6080...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,089
  • Sep 8, 2012 9:22am Sep 8, 2012 9:22am
Here's something I have been watching for a LONG time, that oddly NO ONE has mentioned anywhere that I have seen.

Its a H&S on the USD chart. Now, it looks slightly better on W1, but because it is on Monthly, and very valid on Monthly, the higher TF should trump the lower.

If you look at this on Weekly, it is now invalid and failed, due to a close under the Neckline. However, on Monthly, should the Fed not print, and even hint they wont for some time etc, Price can go right back up again and just leave a "Wick" under the Neckline, which means the pattern is still in play.

To be honest, I have lost faith in this pattern, but its still in play imo
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  • #1,090
  • Sep 8, 2012 9:57am Sep 8, 2012 9:57am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Technically, the high could be placed, but i am looking for 1 more. I am looking in the weekly the same that happed in the daily chart double divergence...
Hey guys. I don't know if EWI still has the same outlook (have not seen their latest) but I do think the bullish case (at least this one) is losing ground here, see first chart.

I have not looked at the bearish case closely yet, but here is another way to see the Triangle and count (2nd chart)
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  • #1,091
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:34am Sep 8, 2012 10:34am
Some EU charts. Start off with a BIG bad H&S that basically no one is talking about, not sure why, clear as day (and is the counterpart to the USD one)

Next up is a completed Monthly Triangle, and the Weekly close up look at it, and where we might be now. I have not looked any closer at this, to see if wave "2" could be finished or not.

The last chart assumes "E" is not yet finished.
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  • #1,092
  • Edited 11:13am Sep 8, 2012 10:57am | Edited 11:13am
Here is where I think EU wave 2 is heading, one way, or the other (Gap fill and W1 Trendline test [purple overhead lines])

Afterwords, we have a dandy wave 3 to which will break through the Monthly Neckline (usually how it happens)
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  • #1,093
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:33am Sep 8, 2012 11:33am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Here's something I have been watching for a LONG time, that oddly NO ONE has mentioned anywhere that I have seen.

Its a H&S on the USD chart. Now, it looks slightly better on W1, but because it is on Monthly, and very valid on Monthly, the higher TF should trump the lower.

If you look at this on Weekly, it is now invalid and failed, due to a close under the Neckline. However, on Monthly, should the Fed not print, and even hint they wont for some time etc, Price can go right back up again and just leave a "Wick" under the Neckline, which...


Hi Jay,

HS-Pattern are not very reliable.

Attached you can find a study from the FED itself which proofs, that HS-pattern is not a high probability setup

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...%202012%208:08



Regarding the importance of TF's:

I think it is a misconception to think, that higher TF's have more weight.

a) waves are fractal

b) waves are a reflection of social mood

c) social mood can change anytime. When it changes, it is first to be seen on the small TF's


The only advantage in this direction of higher TF's is, that oftentimes the waves get more clear.

But keep in mind:

sometimes when we look at too high TF we are losing information.

Especially monthly is oftentimes very critical
  • #1,094
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:39am Sep 8, 2012 11:39am
jayjonbeach ..nice ew charts..now broo which count in usd and euro will work..what u think about that.?now u can check these count in some power full indicaters.and check bullish and bearish divergance..and then check which count look working.........plz post some usd and eur ew count charts with macd or some other good divergance indicators......then we will find right trand
  • #1,095
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:41am Sep 8, 2012 11:41am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Hey guys. I don't know if EWI still has the same outlook (have not seen their latest) but I do think the bullish case (at least this one) is losing ground here, see first chart.

I have not looked at the bearish case closely yet, but here is another way to see the Triangle and count (2nd chart)


yeeeks, do not shock me LOL


Problem with EWI, Daneric and probably me is, we belief in the deflationary scenario. Under this scenario USD has only one way against nearly all currencies, and that is up


But market right now does not get this whole stuff right LOL

a) they hope for QE3 in USA, which is inflationary ---> USD goes down

but at the same time

b) they hope that the ECB buys back bonds unlimited, which is inflationary too at the end, plus reflects the very bad circumstances Euro is in, but ---> EUR goes up, but should go down

Ahhhh, Goldilocks everywhere



That is the problem with social mood - most of the time it is not rational
  • #1,096
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:44am Sep 8, 2012 11:44am
Quoting infinitus
yeeeks, do not shock me LOL


Problem with EWI, Daneric and probably me is, we belief in the deflationary scenario. Under this scenario USD has only one way against nearly all currencies, and that is up


But market right now does not get this whole stuff right LOL

a) they hope for QE3 in USA, which is inflationary ---> USD goes down

but at the same time

b) they hope that the ECB buys back bonds unlimited, which is inflationary too at the end, plus reflects the very bad circumstances Euro is in, but ---> EUR goes up, but should...
i agree with u sir...
  • #1,097
  • Sep 8, 2012 12:57pm Sep 8, 2012 12:57pm
Gameplan for Sunday/Monday


a) daily pivot @ around 2572
b) around 36h without much of retrace
c) Friday we saw a direct rise without even getting in the vicinity of the DPP
d) all TF's up to daily in overbought territory with divergences up to 1H TF, beginning divergence in 4h TF; dailys so far no divergence


e) EW calls for a subwave 4 of impulsive leg C (up); ideal target area for that:
2750-2787

f) 2831 is the position of the EMA 234 on daily TF
2843 is the position of the EMA 40 on weekly TF

g) my statistical system gives sell signals (pretty strong on 15 and 60min // somewhat weaker on 4h and daily)


h) 3486 is last bastion for bears; 3004 is important too - breach of it weakens the bearish case

i) breach of 2752 weakens the bullish case somewhat, but does not nullify it

j) only breach of 2640 spells trouble for the bulls

k) momentum breach of around 2840 in a direct move on Sunday/Monday (without correction beforehand in the 2787-2752 area) may lead to an extended wave 5 (up) which then might target 2939-2982 directly (manic move)

l) hope I have enough letters left


direction: (up) - down - up

in numbers: 2832 - 2752/2787 - then either complex correction or new high towards 2878-2939

I would like to see a complex correction because of rule of alternation
  • #1,098
  • Sep 8, 2012 5:39pm Sep 8, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jay,

HS-Pattern are not very reliable.

Attached you can find a study from the FED itself which proofs, that HS-pattern is not a high probability setup

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...%202012%208:08



Regarding the importance of TF's:

I think it is a misconception to think, that higher TF's have more weight.

a) waves are fractal

b) waves are a reflection of social mood

c) social...
Hi infinitus. I wouldn't trust a damn word that FED says, for starters, but also there are many misconceptions with H&S patterns, including how to make them, when is it invalid, etc, etc

I have been doing this a long time, and can tell you from experience that the pattern, when valid on H1 or higher, and when it actually executes, has about a 70% success rate, and has made me plenty of money. (EU daily earlier this year was sweet)

This is just my experience. I also see that the FED including STOCKS in their report, that about sums up my feelings on it...

---------

Also in my experience, a higher TF will trump a lower one most of the time, if something is in play on both. I have seen this time and time again, over and over. Just my experience anyway, I do see what you are saying and agree that you can never overlook a smaller one, of course. Keep in mind I am largely NOT talking about EW here, just TA in general like patterns, Trend lines, Support etc etc.

---------

Hey, I am on board with the SuperCycle, though I am trying to keep an open mind to some bullish alternate. Please, post a bullish count on USD that looks GOOD, and restore my faith in the overall Bear case, because as I showed on the one I posted, the USD bull case is looking shaky imo, as much as EU and SPX (and other stuff) look ready to fall, so does USD.

Cheers

p.s Not if but WHEN Ben prints again (all he knows), I don't expect the same reaction as the last two times, but it will have bullish reaction most likely. (of course, if market continues to price it in, its getting more and more probable to be a "sell a news" type reaction....)
  • #1,099
  • Sep 8, 2012 9:35pm Sep 8, 2012 9:35pm
Well, Well, Well, I am going to show you a good and bad H&S

Good one Euro aussie daily
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,100
  • Edited 10:02pm Sep 8, 2012 9:41pm | Edited 10:02pm
Bad H&S.

Poung yen daily.

In conclusion, if you want to trade a H&S trade when the price break the neckline no from the shoulder or not trade. If you know elliottwave you must know if it is a good or bad one.
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
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