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  • #1,061
  • Sep 8, 2012 4:18am Sep 8, 2012 4:18am
Quoting Luis Carlos
please put the same daily chart but show since jan 2011 with RSI
here we go
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot A.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #1,062
  • Sep 8, 2012 4:27am Sep 8, 2012 4:27am
Quoting Luis Carlos
ELLIOTT PEOPLE, what do you think white or yellow count???
Hi Luis,


from a momentum distribution perspective the white count, because you normally expect the most momentum in a wave 3 or a wave C



Use Awesome Oscilator for that and adjust the timeframe of the waves to 120-140 bars
  • #1,063
  • Sep 8, 2012 4:29am Sep 8, 2012 4:29am
Hi Friends,

besides my bearish positions in EURUSD I try to stay objective.

A bearish line in the sand for me can be found @ 3004 where a lot of bearish counts get invalidated. That is around 200 pips away. Not much, but for now enough to evaluate, under which conditions the bearish count can be kept alive.

General scenario is:

we are in an impulsive move down from the high @ 3485, which is a part of a move towards < 1.18x to around parity.

I will not discuss here the larger structure, since it is open to many interpretations.




Why do I mainly think that the move from the low @ 204x is corrective?

a) many overlapping waves

b) it channels bad

c) strange momentum distribution - does not look like an impulse, at least not right now


There are many ways to skin a cat - this saying is especially true when counting a corrective move. In an clear impulse we have difficulty to find "many" ways to count it.

This count I represent here is one of many. But I think it is the one which is most likely to stay below 3004



When you look at the first chart you will see a red Xx @ around 250x

We can move this Xx to the blue A on its left side.

This would lead to a somewhat more bullish count, since the blue A above the red Xx would be need to change to a 1. Implication were, that we would get one more up down sequence. But I decided out of two reasons to place the red Xx were it is:

a) it channels much better

b) it has a better time relationship

c) would we move Xx to the left, the count would certainly be open to above 3004 - but here I try to make the bearish case - the bullish case follows in the next posting


I think this moves stands and falls with the decision the German Constitutional Court will draw on Wednesday. When it is pro ESM the count will likely be invalidated to the upper side. When they object, it is most likely that the EURUSD will go down the drain and confirm this count.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot A.jpg Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.jpg Size: 129 KB
  • #1,064
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:14am Sep 8, 2012 6:14am
So, now let us look at the bullish case.


Since the move up from the recent low at around 20x is per my previous post labeled as corrective move, and I have a hard time to count it pure impulsive, I go with the option, that the recent wave up is another corrective wave.

OK, one can count it impulsive, when one starts the count with many 1-2's, but out of my experience such counts are more likely than not wrong.

So simply let us look at a weekly chart.

We had a high momentum move down in 2008, which is labeled as red wave A.

All following waves up and down had nothing comparable to that. In fact we see that with each wave more the momentum is diminishing

That would fit perfectly for a contracting triangle for wave red B. In this case we would be in wave blue E of this triangle.

Wave E can run to the shown trendline @ around 1.40, but it can also truncate badly or overshoot.

If we assume that it will run to the trendline, then the best following target for wave red C would be around 1.12x

But keep in mind that triangles sometimes move "forever", subdividing more and more and building an apex.


To this count there is a super-bullish alternativ count:

simply replace red wave A with blue wave A, then we are not in wave E of the triangle but have likely ended the triangle already.

But this scenario for me has lesser likelihood, because wave red A is on nearly all TF's countable as impulsive.


I think the solution between bullish or bearish count lies within the wave between 4940 and 2042.

We have to analyze this wave to see, if we have more bullish or bearish probabilities




Here now a few further bearish scenarios:

In the second chart you can see the count Prechter uses right now. He thinks that we have fulfilled the triangle already with a very short wave E and he thinks that we have finished wave 1 of wave 3 down now.

Wave 2 of wave 3 may stop now in the 280-283x area, or at around 30x

This count is super bearish and certainly will lead to prices in the 0.85 vicinity or much lower.

Personally, I do not like this triangle with this super short wave E (time and price wise).



so let us have a look at another solution: third chart

with this count we get rid of the "awful" triangle with the short wave E

This is my main count right now.

This count will lead to EURUSD near parity. At this point red A will be equal to red wave C


We can question the blue wave A and blue wave C of red A:

are this impulses or are this zigzags?

For blue A the answer out of my sight is clearly yes, impulsive.

For blue C I think the likelihood is at least 60:40 for impulsive
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot A.jpg Size: 132 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot B.jpg Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot C.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #1,065
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:33am Sep 8, 2012 7:33am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Rubens,


Elliott Waves are fractal. So you should count on different time frames to see, if al the counts fit together.


Besides that: the best time frame (TF) is where the waves represent themselves best. Switch through different TF's to find the clearest picture. Then look at other TF's t see, if the count fits.



Welcome onbard at FF :-)
  • #1,066
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:51am Sep 8, 2012 7:51am
Quoting infinitus
RSI14 and AO starting December 2003
Ty markus, I got it already
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,067
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:59am Sep 8, 2012 7:59am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Luis,


from a momentum distribution perspective the white count, because you normally expect the most momentum in a wave 3 or a wave C



Use Awesome Oscilator for that and adjust the timeframe of the waves to 120-140 bars
Maybe you are right, that count is the worts scenario for euro...

I dont know how to you that oscilator.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,068
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:01am Sep 8, 2012 8:01am
Quoting jayjonbeach
You know what, I just realized my mistake here, damn it I don't know how many times I get caught in this trap (drawing TL from the top)

Of course, D is allowed to go as high as B, but not above, so may not even be finished.

This will be interesting, with Fed meeting on Thurs, that does not give time to make an E wave since this is a Weekly Pattern.

Thoughts?
Here you go that is fine..
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,069
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:10am Sep 8, 2012 8:10am
Quoting infinitus
So, now let us look at the bullish case.


Since the move up from the recent low at around 20x is per my previous post labeled as corrective move, and I have a hard time to count it pure impulsive, I go with the option, that the recent wave up is another corrective wave.

OK, one can count it impulsive, when one starts the count with many 1-2's, but out of my experience such counts are more likely than not wrong.

So simply let us look at a weekly chart.

We had a high momentum move down in 2008, which is labeled as red wave A.

All...
Hey Markus you tell me the white is better and you are drawing the yellow one
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,070
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:31am Sep 8, 2012 8:31am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Sorry dont see the triangle. I prefer a FLAT
Quoting Luis Carlos
Here you go that is fine..
Well I was going to say, you might want to get GLASSES....

Each leg is a VERY clear a,b,c (3 legs) and you have ABC and D, only E to is left. Not only that, as I mentioned in prior post, the count off the bottom is a horrible impulse if you try to force it, so counts much better as an "abc" to make D

Also on your Flat, look at the first small "b", that is 5 waves and ruins your Flat outlook. Another reason I have it counted the way I do, your small "b" is the END of a Flat which we know Flats end in 5 waves (which yours did not)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,071
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:33am Sep 8, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Maybe you are right, that count is the worts scenario for euro...

I dont know how to you that oscilator.
see here:

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles...oscillator.htm

http://www.esignalcentral.com/univer...Manual_ch7.pdf
  • #1,072
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:37am Sep 8, 2012 8:37am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Well I was going to say, you might want to get GLASSES....

Each leg is a VERY clear a,b,c (3 legs) and you have ABC and D, only E to is left. Not only that, as I mentioned in prior post, the count off the bottom is a horrible impulse if you try to force it, so counts much better as an "abc" to make D

Also on your Flat, look at the first small "b", that is 5 waves and ruins your Flat outlook. Another reason I have it counted the way I do, your small "b" is the END of a Flat which we know Flats end in 5 waves (which yours...
You are right your flat is correct.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,073
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:40am Sep 8, 2012 8:40am
i agree with u.........
  • #1,074
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:41am Sep 8, 2012 8:41am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hey Markus you tell me the white is better and you are drawing the yellow one




Hahaha, was a little test


No, seriously:

I confused white and yellow


I wrote:

"....from a momentum distribution perspective the white count, because you normally expect the most momentum in a wave 3 or a wave C"

so it is the yellow count



sorry, sorry, sorry


I hope you had not a sleepless night LOL
  • #1,075
  • Edited 8:53am Sep 8, 2012 8:42am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Friends,

besides my bearish positions in EURUSD I try to stay objective.

A bearish line in the sand for me can be found @ 3004 where a lot of bearish counts get invalidated. That is around 200 pips away. Not much, but for now enough to evaluate, under which conditions the bearish count can be kept alive.

General scenario is:

we are in an impulsive move down from the high @ 3485, which is a part of a move towards < 1.18x to around parity.

I will not discuss here the larger structure, since it is open to many interpretations....
I see it a little dif but same result. I am contemplating a 1.2846 - 1.2933 to finish the correction, but look at something. If you used that X as triangle and you make a expantion using WX fib 1,618 is a perfect target 1.2933 with the 0,618 fib correction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1h.png Size: 55 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,076
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:45am Sep 8, 2012 8:45am
Quoting infinitus




Hahaha, was a little test


No, seriously:

I confused white and yellow


I wrote:

"....from a momentum distribution perspective the white count, because you normally expect the most momentum in a wave 3 or a wave C"

so it is the yellow count



sorry, sorry, sorry


I hope you had not a sleepless night LOL
haha, I slept well, but I dreamt a lot with 1,29 haha... I just wake up and my wife is mad with me because i am in the computer on saturday
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,077
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:46am Sep 8, 2012 8:46am
  • #1,078
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:52am Sep 8, 2012 8:52am
I am going to make some polemic here, look gold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold.png Size: 47 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #1,079
  • Sep 8, 2012 8:59am Sep 8, 2012 8:59am
Quoting Luis Carlos
I am going to make some polemic here, look gold.
Saturday morning is family day brother luis, be with the wife.

see you sunday.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,080
  • Sep 8, 2012 9:05am Sep 8, 2012 9:05am
Quoting infinitus
take a look here - Daneric is one of the most respected Elliotticans

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.de/


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uecxtH-Yo4.../s1600/USD.png
Daneric is probably the best EW Tech on the entire Internet, and better than most or all of the guys at EWI.

However, he follows EWI religiously, and as such, has an extremely large BEAR bias that often skews his counts sadly. He definitely puts up different counts than them, when he feels its warranted, but his outlook never changes (its a hard thing to do when you believe in a certain SuperCycle) and often you can see his counts are NOT the most probable one, due to his bias. (We know in EW that most times there is an almost equally viable alternate count, one bearish and one bullish, both should always be heavily considered, something he only does occasionally)
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